温家宝警告背后的真正风险The real risks behind Wen’s warning

Under pressure over China’s currency policy, Wen Jiabao tried to scare his European audience on Wednesday, warning that a sharp appreciation in the renminbi would “be a disaster for the world”. However, Wen’s speech would have been more alarming for the European executives and politicians present if he had made a different case.

面对让人民币升值的压力，中国总理温家宝周三试图震慑一下他的欧洲听众——他警告称，人民币升值过快将“会给世界带来灾难”。但对与会的欧洲政商两界领导人而言，如果他换个理由，可能会更具威慑力。

The Chinese premier was speaking in Brussels during a week-long trip to Europe which has coincided with mounting international criticism of China’s efforts to curb the value of the renminbi. He argued that hundreds of thousands of migrant workers would lose their jobs if the currency jumped 20-40 per cent and that social chaos would ensue.

温家宝是在对欧洲进行为期一周的访问期间于布鲁塞尔发表上述演讲的。与此同时，国际社会对中国试图压低人民币汇率的指责正变得越来越强烈。温家宝称，如果人民币汇率提高20%到40%，很多农民工要失业，社会要出现动荡。

It is certainly true that there are large numbers of Chinese exporters operating on relatively slim margins which would struggle to absorb a dramatic hike in the value of the Chinese currency. Many are already facing rising wage bills and the prospect of moving to a cheaper country or inland from China’s coastal regions (see analysis).

无疑，大量中国出口商的营运利润相对较薄，难以消化人民币的突然升值。许多出口商已在面对工资上涨的压力、以及此类出口制造从中国沿海地区转至中国内地或成本更低国家的前景（见分析）。

Yet it is difficult for Wen to push this argument too far. Plenty of Chinese policymakers believe that currency appreciation needs to be more rapid than the 2-per-cent increase against the dollar over the last three months. As well as suppressing inflation, they argue it would send a powerful signal to the Chinese economy to rebalance away from exports towards domestic demand - precisely the goal that Beijing has been pursuing for years. And whenever they want to buttress their case, they cite Wen’s famous claim that China’s economy is “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”.

但温家宝很难用这一理由服人。很多中国政策制定者都认为，如今人民币兑美元应加快升值，升值速度应较前3个月的2%有个提升。他们表示，除了能抑制通胀，加快升值还会向中国经济发出一个有力的再平衡信号，减轻对出口的依赖，转而在更大程度上仰仗国内需求——而这恰恰是中国政府多年来一直追求的目标。每当需要支持自己的说法时，他们就会引用温家宝那句著名的言论，即中国经济是“不平衡、不协调、不可持续”的。

As it is, Wen may have missed a trick in his Brussels address. While talking about the impact of a sharp appreciation in the renminbi, he did not mention one of the most important unintended consequences - that all those European companies in the audience would suddenly become 40-per-cent cheaper for prospective Chinese acquirers. Now, that really would have put the fear up European business.

事实上，温家宝可能在此次演讲中漏掉了一招。在说到人民币急剧升值的影响时，他并未提及最重要的意外后果之一：对于潜在的中方买家而言，听众席中所有的欧洲企业都会突然便宜40%。这下子，可能真会让欧洲商界感到恐惧了。