As the 300-odd leading members of the Chinese Communist party prepare for their annual meeting to begin on Friday, one man and one issue are dominating discussion: Wen Jiabao, the premier, and his approach to political reform.
在300余名中共中央委员准备从周五开始的十七届五中全会之际，一个人和一个议题主导着讨论，那就是中国总理温家宝和他对政治改革的态度。
Over the past few months Mr Wen has made a series of ever bolder statements on the political system, prompting speculation he will use the party meeting to ignite a campaign for greater reform. Yet even if that is Mr Wen’s plan, some analysts believe, his prospects could have been made harder by the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, the jailed dissident.
过去几个月来，温家宝在政治体制问题上发表了一系列越来越大胆的声明，外界不禁猜测，他将利用这次党内会议启动一场加大改革力度的活动。然而，即使那真是温家宝的计划，一些分析人士也认为，诺贝尔和平奖授予服刑中的异见人士刘晓波，可能使温家宝的成功前景变得黯淡了。
Mr Wen’s rhetorical foray started in April when he wrote an essay to mark the death of former Communist party boss Hu Yaobang, a supporter of economic and political reform who was pushed out of power by conservative opponents in 1987.
温家宝的大胆言论是从4月份开始的，当时他写了一篇文章，纪念已故中共中央总书记胡耀邦。胡耀邦是经济和政治改革的支持者，在1987年被保守的反对派赶下台。
The potential symbolism was powerful, given that it was the death of Mr Hu that sparked the 1989 Tiananmen protests. “He spared no effort and used a lifetime’s vigour to fight for the nation,” Mr Wen wrote in an article in the People’s Daily of his former boss.
这其中的象征意义是十分强大的，因为正是胡耀邦的去世引发了1989年的天安门抗议。“他为了党的事业和人民的利益，夜以继日地全身心投入工作中，”温家宝在《人民日报》撰文追忆他的老上级时写道。
In August Mr Wen used a visit to Shenzhen, the city in southern China that is the spiritual home of economic reform, to push his message more firmly, saying that political reform was a necessary companion to economic modernisation. “Without the safeguard of political reform, the fruits of economic reform would be lost,” he said.
8月份，温家宝利用视察中国经济改革的精神家园——深圳的机会，更坚定地表述了自己的意思。他表示，经济现代化必须有政治改革保驾护航。“没有政治体制改革的保障，经济体制改革的成果就会得而复失，”他说。
In an interview with CNN this month, Mr Wen’s comments were even blunter.
本月接受美国有线电视新闻网CNN采访时，温家宝的言论更加直白。
The Communist party should act “in accordance with the constitution and the law”, he said. “Freedom of speech is indispensable for any country” and “the people’s wishes and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible”.
共产党的活动“应该要符合宪法和法律的规定”，他表示。“言论自由对每一个国家，不论是发展中国家还是发达国家，都是必不可少的，”还有“人民对民主和自由的向往和需求是无法阻挡的”。
What is Mr Wen really up to? Jing Huang, a professor at the National University of Singapore, believes that Mr Wen has genuinely been trying to prepare for a big push on political reform. He is due to retire in 2012 and knows this is his last big chance to make an impact.
温家宝的意图是什么？新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)教授黄靖相信，温家宝一直真心准备大力推动政治改革。他将在2012年退休，知道这是自己产生影响的最后一个重大机会。
“Wen Jiabao is a very cautious man and he would not make such a bold move if he did not think there was considerable support from within the party and from society,” he says.
“温家宝是一个很谨慎的人，如果不是他认为党内和社会各界存在相当大的支持，他是不会做出这种大胆举动的，”黄靖表示。
Yet not everyone is convinced. Some intellectuals in Beijing have grown frustrated at the slow pace of reform under Mr Wen and Hu Jintao, the president, and believe they are essentially conservative figures who pay only lip-service to shaking up the political system.
然而，并不是每个人都相信这一点。对于温家宝和国家主席胡锦涛主政时期改革步伐缓慢，北京一些知识分子越来越不耐烦，他们认为，胡温本质上是保守人物，只是在口头上表示要改革政治体制。
Yu Jie, a 37-year-old writer, recently published a book on Mr Wen entitled China’s Best Actor, a gibe at the premier’s sometimes theatrical scenes of empathy with the public. “Hu and Wen are two sides of the same coin: they believe in stability above all else,” he says. “Many writers and intellectuals have given up expecting much.”
37岁的作家余杰最近出版了一本有关温家宝的书，书名为《中国影帝温家宝》，嘲讽这位总理有时以戏剧性场面表达对公众的同情。“胡锦涛和温家宝是一枚硬币的两面：他们都相信稳定高于一切，”余杰表示。“许多作家和知识分子已放弃了期盼。”
Within the leadership there are also plenty of officials sceptical of reform. Zhou Yongkang, who is the country’s senior security official and who was standing beside Kim Jong-il at the weekend’s parade in North Korea, recently wrote an article attacking “erroneous western political ideas”.
在领导层内部，也有不少官员对改革持怀疑态度。中国高级安全官员、上周末朝鲜阅兵期间站在金正日边上的周永康，最近撰文攻击“错误的西方政治思想”。
As a result, some analysts believe, Mr Wen’s calls for political reform are a tactic designed to prevent liberal members of the elite, such as the former propaganda officials who wrote a public letter this week calling for more media freedom, from becoming too disenchanted.
因此，一些分析人士相信，温家宝呼吁政治改革是一种战术，旨在防止精英阶层中的自由派人士（如本周发表公开信、呼吁加大媒体自由的若干前宣传官员）变得过于失去幻想。
There is also little detail on the substance of any reform. For some that would mean expanding the role of the National People’s Congress, the legislature that acts largely as a rubber stamp, or securing greater press freedoms. Yet when China’s leaders talk of democracy, as they sometimes do, they are often referring to more elections within the Communist party for positions, rather than votes involving the general population.
关于任何改革的实质，细节也很少。对一些人来说，改革意味着扩大全国人大（目前基本上充当橡皮图章的立法机构）的职权，或者保障更大的新闻自由。然而，当中国领导人谈论民主的时候（他们有时确实会这么做），他们往往指的是党内通过更多选举产生职位，而非让全民参与投票。
Prof Huang, who believes Mr Wen is sincere on political reform, also believes that in the short term support has been severely undermined by the award of the Nobel Prize to Mr Liu, viewed by many in Beijing as a calculated insult.
相信温家宝真心推动政治改革的黄靖还认为，短期而言，诺贝尔奖授予刘晓波（北京方面许多人士将此视为一种蓄意的侮辱），严重削弱了对政治改革的支持。
“Now the hardliners are laughing in his [Wen’s] face,” says Prof Huang. “There are a lot of people within the system who are now saying, ‘No matter how hard we work, there are people who always want to hold China down’.”
“现在强硬派在他（温家宝）面前很得意，”黄靖表示。“体制内有不少人现在说，‘不管我们如何努力，总有人想要拖中国的后腿’。”
