Friday, December 31, 2010

“金砖之父”:南非不属于这一阵营 South Africa as a Bric: the godfather raises an eyebrow

The godfather has spoken – the godfather of the Bric group. Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs had planned to stay quiet over the holidays, but he couldn’t resist reacting to a gutsy move by China on Christmas Eve to insert South Africa into the acronym he coined.

提出金砖四国(Bric)概念的教父开口了。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)原本计划在假日期间保持沉默。但中国在圣诞前夜大胆地提出,要将南非加入他创造的这个首字母缩略词中,奥尼尔忍不住做出了回应。

According to reports in Chinese state media, China invited South Africa to join the four-letter club of fast-growing emerging markets – or at least to join a summit of theirs in China next year. In a note to clients on Wednesday, O’Neill wrote: “While this is clearly good news for South Africa, it is not entirely obvious to me as to why the Bric countries should have agreed.”

据中国官方媒体报道,中国已邀请南非加入由快速增长的新兴市场国家组成的金砖四国,或者至少参加他们明年在中国举行的峰会。奥尼尔周三在致客户的研究报告中写道:“虽然这对南非显然是个好消息,但我不是太明白,金砖国家为什么要同意。”

As chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management today, he clearly doesn’t want to offend anyone. But the implicit message of his note is that the Bric concept has become political and been unmoored from the economic logic that underpinned his creation of it in 2001 when he was Goldman’s top economist.

如今身为高盛资产管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事长的奥尼尔,显然不想得罪任何人。但他在研究报告中含蓄地传递出了一条信息:金砖四国已成为一个政治概念,脱离了2001年他担任高盛首席经济学家时支撑他创造这个概念的经济逻辑。

He wrote:

他写道:

'When I created the acronym, I had not expected that a political club of the leaders of the BRIC countries would be formed as a result. In that regard, the purposes of the two might be regarded differently and more so after this news.'

“当初创造这个词汇时,我没有料到会因此出现一个金砖四国领导人政治俱乐部。在这点上,两者的目的可能要区别对待,在这则新闻公布后更是如此。”

He says “South Africa rightly sees itself as a leading emerging nation”. But this is just to soften the blow of his main point, which is that in economic terms South Africa is very far from being a Bric contender.

他表示,“南非有理由将自己视为领先的新兴国家”。但这只是为了缓和一下他更为尖锐的主要观点,即从经济角度来看,南非距离成为金砖四国的竞争者还非常遥远。

The size of its economy is $350bn. And as O’Neill notes:

南非的经济规模为3500亿美元。而正如奥尼尔指出的那样:

'… this is quite small by not only BRIC standards, but compared to some others. For example, Russia is around $1,600 billion, nearly 5 times larger than South Africa. And, India is currently similar in size to Russia. Brazil is currently closer to $2 billion in size, while China is considerably larger at around $5,500 billion.'

“……这个规模相当小,无论是按照金砖四国的标准衡量,还是与其它一些国家相比。例如,俄罗斯的经济规模约为1.6万亿美元,是南非的近5倍。此外,印度目前的规模与俄罗斯相当。巴西目前的规模接近2万亿美元,中国的规模更是大得多,约为5.5万亿美元。”

Importantly, he adds, there are also a number of other economies from the so-called emerging world that are bigger than South Africa.

他补充称,重要的是,还有许多来自所谓新兴世界的经济体规模超过南非。

'This would include Indonesia (approximately $700 bn), Mexico ($1,050 bn), Turkey ($725 bn) and South Korea ($1,000 bn). These four nations, along with each of the BRIC economies, are all 1 pct or more of global GDP, and what we would increasingly think of as “Growth Economies.” … It is tough to see how South Africa matches up to these four countries, never mind the BRIC countries.'

“这包括印尼(约7000亿美元)、墨西哥(1.05万亿美元)、土耳其(7250亿美元)和韩国(1万亿美元)。这4个国家,以及金砖四国中的每个国家,在全球GDP中所占的比重都达到或超过了1%,我们会越来越多地把它们视为‘增长型经济体。’……我们很难看到南非如何能比得上这四个国家,更别提金砖四国了。”

Ouch.

哎哟!

Tuning his political antennae, O’Neill notes that a South African role “might be justified as Africa’s representation alongside the BRICs, as the continent as a whole is as about as large as India or Russia”.

奥尼尔调整了一下自己的政治触角。他指出,南非的角色“也许应该是作为非洲的代表,与金砖四国并列,因为整个非洲大陆的规模大致与印度或俄罗斯相当。”

But Nigeria is hardly going to accept that. And what O’Neill the godfather is going to have to accept, it seems, is that he is losing control of the concept he created.

但尼日利亚几乎不会接受。而奥尼尔教父似乎不得不接受的是,他正在失去对他提出的这个概念的控制权。

Paypal在重庆设立结算平台 PayPal in drive on e-commerce in China

PayPal, the world’s largest online payment platform, is planning to offer a system that would lift the cap on foreign exchange settlements for small Chinese businesses in a move which could help strengthen the position of its parent Ebay in the world’s fastest growing e-commerce market.

全球最大在线支付平台贝宝(PayPal)正计划推出一套系统,提高中国小企业的外汇结算上限。此举将有助于增强其母公司Ebay在中国这个全球发展最快的电子商务市场的地位。

PayPal has struck a deal with the government of Chongqing, China’s largest municipality, to offer a range of services – including, for the first time, a foreign exchange settlement solution – to Chinese entrepreneurs selling to consumers overseas.

贝宝已经与重庆市政府达成一项协议,为中国出口商户提供一系列服务,包括首次推出的一个结汇平台。

Chinese authorities have set a ceiling for individuals to convert foreign currency into local currency of $50,000 a year. PayPal said this regulation hinders Chinese small businesses and entrepreneurs from building a cross-border e-commerce business and that its payment platform would help small merchants get quick access to an export licence, which allows a higher conversion ceiling.

中国当局规定,个人每年可将最多合5万美元的外币兑换成人民币。贝宝表示,这一规定阻碍了中国小企业和商户构建跨境电子商务业务,而新的支付平台将有助于小本经营的商户迅速获得出口许可证——有了出口许可证,便可以提高结汇上限。

China’s online payment market had a transaction volume of Rmb725.5bn ($110bn) in the first nine months of this year and is expected to hit Rmb1,000bn for the whole year, according to Analysys, the Beijing-based internet research firm.

北京互联网研究公司易观国际(Analysys)的数据显示,今年头9个月,中国在线支付市场的交易额为7255亿元人民币(合1100亿美元),全年有望突破1万亿元人民币。

“The Chongqing government will be working with the relevant local authorities, like the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, to get the necessary regulatory approvals,” PayPal said.

贝宝表示:“重庆市政府将与中国国家外汇管理局(Safe)等相关部门合作,获得必要的监管许可。”

PayPal is testing the service and hopes to offer it to merchants across China in the second half of 2011. If successful, the platform should attract small Chinese vendors, the main customer base of Alibaba, the world’s largest online marketplace for trade between companies, which had proved the nemesis for Ebay on its first foray into the Chinese market. China has the world’s largest online population with 440m users.

贝宝正在测试这项服务,希望在2011年下半年面向全中国的商户推出。如果成功,该平台应该能吸引到大量中国小企业——它们是全球最大企业间在线交易平台阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的主要客户群。事实证明,正是阿里巴巴这个劲敌导致Ebay首次涉足中国市场的行动遭遇滑铁卢。中国拥有4.4亿网民,为世界之最。

Ebay initially entered China with an auction site closely resembling its international service at the start of the last decade. After losing most of its market share to Taobao, the unlisted affiliate of Alibaba Group which dominates China’s consumer-to-consumer e-commerce market, the US group changed strategy in 2006 and offered a platform for cross-border online trade.

本世纪初,Ebay曾以拍卖网站的形式进入中国,经营模式与其国际服务非常类似。在大部分市场份额被淘宝(Taobao)夺走后,Ebay于2006年改变了策略,推出一个跨境在线交易平台。淘宝是阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group)旗下的未上市子公司,主宰着中国的个人对个人(C2C)电子商务市场。

Over the past year, Alibaba and Ebay have looked at opportunities for co-operation. However, Alibaba launched Ali- Express earlier this year, a site which allows small merchants to conduct online transactions with customers overseas, again putting Alibaba in competition with Ebay’s business in China.

过去一年里,阿里巴巴与Ebay一直在寻找合作的机会。但阿里巴巴在今年早些时候推出了“全球速卖通”(Ali-Express)平台,支持小商户与海外客户进行在线交易。此举再一次将阿里巴巴与Ebay在华业务推至竞争关系。

Alibaba also has its own online payment service, Alipay, which dominates the Chinese market.

阿里巴巴还拥有自己的在线支付服务——主宰中国市场的支付宝(AliPay)。

中国悄然改变对朝立场 China helps defuse Korean crisis

In a matter of days, the situation on the Korean peninsula appears to have switched from the brink of war to hope for new dialogue. The North’s restraint over the past week and the South’s new willingness to resume six-party talks, however, may owe more to Chinese efforts than a volte-face by Seoul.

短短几天,朝鲜半岛的局势,似乎就已经从濒临战争,转变为对新一轮对话充满希望。不过,朝鲜过去一周的克制和韩国新近表现出来的重开六方会谈的意愿,也许主要应归功于中国的努力,而非首尔方面态度的转变。

According to Jin Canrong, associate dean of the school of international studies at Renmin University, China’s influence “has definitely been a factor”.

中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长金灿荣表示,中国的影响“肯定是一个因素”。

And although Beijing has been at pains to avoid the impression that it was acting under US pressure to persuade Pyongyang to stop its belligerence, Washington’s hand was also apparent. “When [James Steinberg US deputy secretary of state] visited Beijing two weeks ago, his attitude was quite stern, so China went and made some stronger effort [to lobby Pyongyang]”, Professor Jin said.

虽然北京竭力避免给外界留下这样一个印象,即它是在美国压力下才劝说平壤停止挑衅的,但华盛顿的影响也很明显。“(美国副国务卿詹姆斯•斯坦伯格(James Steinberg))两周前访华时,他的态度十分强硬,所以中国做出了更大的努力(去劝说朝鲜),”金灿荣说道。

This was a sharp reversal from Beijing’s initial refusal to condemn Pyongyang for last month’s shelling of the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, which triggered the latest crisis, and also from China’s unwillingness to accept South Korea’s view that one of its warships, the Cheonan, had been sunk by North Korea this year.

这与北京之前的态度截然不同。朝鲜上月炮击韩国的延平岛,引发了最近的危机,但北京最初拒绝谴责平壤。中国此前也不愿意接受韩国认为其天安舰今年系被朝鲜击沉的看法。

The change is part of China’s careful balancing act between maintaining its long-standing alliance with a reclusive and aggressive neighbour and its newer role as a responsible major power with friendly ties to the US and other members of the international community.

中国既要与孤立而激进的邻国朝鲜维持由来已久的盟友关系,又要扮演负责任大国的新角色,与美国和国际社会的其他国家保持友好。上述转变就是中国在两者间小心平衡的结果。

China hopes to use North Korea as a buffer against American dominance in the region but also fears that Pyongyang’s aggression could trigger war and chaos.

中国希望利用朝鲜缓冲美国在亚洲地区的主导地位,但又担心平壤的攻击姿态会引发战争和混乱。

“China’s overall priority with regard to North Korea is stability, which explains its policy evolution after the shelling of Yeonpyeong island last month,” said Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, north-east Asia project director at the International Crisis Group.

国际危机监察机构(International Crisis Group)东北亚项目主任斯蒂芬妮•克莱恩-阿尔布兰特(Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt)称:“关于朝鲜,中国最主要考虑的是稳定,这解释了上月延平岛遭炮击后中国政策的演变。”

“In the immediate aftermath, China believed that a conflict in the Yellow Sea was unlikely and instead focused on US involvement in the region,” Ms Kleine-Ahlbrandt added. “But as tensions escalated, China became more focused on the risks of conflict and was willing to accept enhanced US involvement and ask the North not to overreact.”

克莱恩-阿尔布兰特补充道:“事件刚发生时,中国认为在黄海发生冲突的可能性不大,因而把关注重点放在了美国对该地区的介入。但随着紧张局势升级,中国开始更关注冲突的风险,愿意接受美国进一步介入并要求朝鲜不要反应过度。”

On the surface, the only sign of change was a statement, still carefully balanced, last week in which the Chinese foreign ministry urged Pyongyang to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the country.

表面上,改变的唯一迹象是一则依然小心平衡的声明——中国外交部上周敦促朝鲜允许国际原子能机构(IAEA)检查员重返朝鲜。

But observers said behind the scenes Beijing convinced Pyongyang that a war on the Korean peninsula would be undesirable and there was a real danger of such a conflict.

但观察人士表示,北京方面已经在幕后说服平壤:朝鲜半岛发生战争将是不受欢迎的,而此类冲突的危险切实存在。

It is understood China argued that the North Korean attack had exhausted South Korea’s patience and tolerance and that Seoul was likely to provoke Pyongyang with military exercises and hardline rhetoric.

据信,中国提出,朝鲜的攻击已经达到了韩国忍耐和容忍的底线,首尔有可能通过军事演习和强硬言辞刺激平壤。

Chinese diplomats told their North Korean counterparts that, if they responded, they would fall into a trap set by South Korea and the US.

中国外交官告诉朝鲜同僚,如果朝鲜作出回应,就会掉进韩国和美国设下的圈套。

But while Seoul’s agreement to re-enter talks was viewed with relief in the Chinese foreign ministry’s department of Asian affairs, Beijing is under no illusion that it is nearing a solution to the conflict.

虽然首尔同意重启会谈让中国外交部亚洲司松了一口气,但北京并未幻想冲突已经接近解决。

“China’s approach towards the Korean peninsula is fundamentally different from that of the US – the six-party talks are not a way to solve the problem but to control the crisis,” said Prof Jin.

金灿荣说:“中国对待朝鲜半岛的方式与美国截然不同——六方会谈不是为了解决问题,而是为了控制危机。”

He sees Beijing’s long-term goal as helping North Korea transform from an ideology-driven country to a normal member of the international community and from a political system focused on the military to one focused on the economy – much like the path that China has taken over the past 30 years.

他认为,北京的长期目标是帮助朝鲜从一个意识形态挂帅的国家转型为国际社会中的正常国家,让政治体制从军事优先转变为关注经济——与中国过去30年走过的道路十分相似。

In the short term, what matters to Beijing is preventing its awkward alliance from doing damage to its other international ties. “The importance of the upcoming visit of Hu Jintao [Chinese president] to the US played a role in the shift [in China’s handling of North Korea],” said Ms Kleine-Ahlbrandt.

短期内,对北京而言最重要的是,不要让这个令人尴尬的盟友破坏中国与其他国家的关系。克莱恩-阿尔布兰特表示:“(中国国家主席)胡锦涛即将访美的重要性,对于(中国处理朝鲜问题)转变发挥了作用,”

让印度人尴尬的中国投资 India

It was one of the big ironies of Wen Jiabao’s visit to New Delhi this month: while China has encircled the Indian Ocean region with projects from Pakistan to Burma, India has struggled to spend money within its own borders. Premier Wen left Islamabad, his next stop, with a pledge to invest up to $30bn more in Pakistan by 2015, which is about as much as the entire Indian private sector spent on its own infrastructure in the year to March.

在中国总理温家宝本月访印之旅中,这可谓是最具讽刺意味的事情之一:从巴基斯坦到缅甸,中国参与的项目包围了整个印度洋地区,而印度在本国境内的投资上却捉襟见肘。在离开印度下一站——巴基斯坦时,温家宝承诺,在2015年前再向巴基斯坦投资至多300亿美元。这个数字大致相当于印度整个私人部门在截至3月份的财年、在本国基础设施上的总投资。

India’s economic momentum is impressive: over the next few years, the country’s real gross domestic product growth seems likely to move above China’s, a crossover rarely seen in the past 20 years. But it is achieving this development in spite of its infrastructure, not because of it. Road traffic is slowed by single lanes and uneven surfaces. Ships take almost 96 hours to unload and load at Indian ports, about 10 times longer than in Hong Kong. And 18 per cent of India’s urban population defecates daily in open spaces, compared with 6 per cent in China.

印度的经济势头令人瞩目:未来几年,印度实际的国内生产总值(GDP)增幅看起来有可能超过中国,这种情况在过去20年内很难见到。然而,印度的基础设施未能推动其经济发展,反而起到了拖累作用。单车道和凸凹不平的路面,让公路交通异常缓慢。轮船在印度港口装卸货物要花将近96个小时,约是香港的10倍时间。而印度18%的城市居民每天在露天场所排便,在中国这一比例仅为6%。

Unlike China, of course, India is burdened by democratic government, a respect for private land rights and a very zealous environment ministry, which means that the state cannot simply bulldoze settlements or drain wetlands to make way for power plants. Even so, the country’s plans to triple private spending on infrastructure in the 12th five-year plan to 2017 are long overdue. The infrastructure deficit is one of the main reasons China’s GDP per capita has grown at an average annual rate of 9.6 per cent since 2000, according to World Bank figures, compared with 5.5 per cent for India. In the words of Rabindranath Tagore, the Nobel-winning Bengali poet: “One can put in as much water as the size of the pot.”

当然,与中国不同,印度的民主政府给经济造成了负担——该国尊重土地私有权,环境部的表现也相当积极。这意味着,国家不可能去强行拆迁,或抽干湿地为发电厂让路。尽管如此,印度在截至2017年的第12个五年计划内、将基础设施建设方面的私人支出提高两倍的计划,也来的太晚了。世界银行(World Bank)的数据显示,基础设施方面的差距,是中国自2000年来人均GDP一直以9.6%的平均速度增长、而印度人均GDP增速仅为5.5%的主要原因之一。用诺贝尔奖获得者、孟加拉语诗人泰戈尔(Rabindranath Tagore)的话说:“有多大锅,盛多少水。”

韩国对朝鲜强硬态度出现软化迹象 Seoul U-turn on North talks

Lee Myung-bak, South Korean president, has cleared the way for his country to take part in talks between six nations to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear programme, marking a reversal of the approach of Seoul towards Pyongyang.

韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)为韩国参与旨在让朝鲜放弃核计划的六方会谈扫清了道路。这标志着,韩国政府对待朝鲜的态度发生了转变。

Inter-Korean talks have stopped completely this year after the North sank a South Korean warship in March and shelled Yeonpyeong island last month, raising tension on the peninsula to its highest level in decades. Seoul has conducted a series of military drills in recent weeks to deter North Korea’s provocations.

在朝鲜今年3月击沉韩国一艘军舰、并于上月炮轰延坪岛后,朝韩会谈已完全陷于停滞,半岛紧张局势也提高到数十年来最严重水平。近几周来,韩国进行了一系列军事演习,以威慑朝鲜的挑衅行为。

South Korea, like the US and Japan, has been reluctant to restart the six-nation talks, which have been stalled for the past two years, unless there were clear steps from the North to dismantle its nuclear programme. The talks also involve Russia, China.

与美国和日本一样,韩国也一直不愿重启过去两年一直停滞不前的六方会谈——除非朝鲜采取明确措施放弃其核计划。六方会谈的参与方还包括俄罗斯和中国。

Mr Lee appeared to shift his country’s position in comments made on Wednesday. “We have no choice but to resolve the problem of dismantling North Korea’s nuclear programme diplomatically through the six-party talks,” he said.

在周三发表的讲话中,李明博似乎改变了韩国的立场。他说:“我们没有其它选择,只有通过六方会谈以外交努力来解决朝核问题。”

Mr Lee added that progress should be made next year in efforts to denuclearise North Korea before 2012, the year by which Pyongyang says it aims to build a “great, powerful and prosperous” nation. The president also called for inter-Korean dialogue to ease tension, although he still stressed the importance of stronger defence against the North. “We should make efforts to have peace settled through inter-Korean dialogue,” he said.

李明博补充表示,朝鲜确立了到2012年建设“伟大、强大和繁荣”国家的目标,明年各方应推动六方会谈取得进展,争取在2012年前使朝鲜弃核。这位韩国总统还呼吁朝韩之间展开对话,以缓和紧张局势,不过他还是强调了加强对朝防御的重要性。他说:“我们应努力通过朝韩对话实现和平。”

The comments came after Mr Lee received policy reports for 2011 from both the foreign ministry and the unification ministry. The change of tone, after Mr Lee’s tough talk against Pyongyang, signals the possibility that South Korea might soften its hardline policies against the North next year.

李明博在发表上述讲话之前,曾收到韩国外交部及统一部提交的2011年政策报告。他此番态度转变、放弃此前对朝鲜的强硬言论预示着,韩国明年可能会软化其针对朝鲜的强硬政策。

Experts said the change in Seoul’s stance was probably sparked by the scheduled China-US summit in Washington next month, where leaders are expected to discuss resuming the six-party talks.

专家们表示,韩国改变立场的原因可能是定于下月在华盛顿举行的中美峰会。预计中美两国领导人将在此次峰会上讨论重启六方会谈事宜。

Hyun In-taek, South Korea’s unification minister, said the country was willing to expand humanitarian aid to the North – which was suspended after November’s Yeonpyeong island attack – next year.

韩国统一部长官玄仁泽(Hyun In-taek)表示,韩国明年愿意扩大对朝鲜的人道主义援助。在今年11月延坪岛遭炮击后,这一援助已暂停。

Mr Hyun said Seoul would focus on making preparations for unification while working to improve welfare for ordinary North Koreans. The government aims to complete funding plans for reunification in the first half of next year. But Cheong Seong-chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute, said Seoul’s frequent mention of preparations for reunification and its policies toward ordinary North Koreans could infuriate leaders in Pyongyang, deteriorating inter-Korean relations.

玄仁泽说,韩国将集中精力为南北统一做准备,同时努力提升朝鲜普通民众的福祉。韩国政府的目标是,在明年上半年完成统一计划的资金计划。但世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)研究员郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)表示,韩国政府多次提及为统一做准备及其针对朝鲜民众的政策,可能会激怒朝鲜政府领导人,恶化朝韩关系。

“Such a move is something North Korea hates most. And there is a limit to help [for] North Koreans without dealing with the regime,” he said.

他表示:“这类举措是朝鲜最痛恨的。援助朝鲜民众却不与朝鲜政府展开接触,这样的政策走不了多远。”

Thursday, December 30, 2010

管理学十大经典定理

一、 素养

蓝斯登原则:在你往上爬的时候,一定要保持梯子的整洁,否则你下来时可能会滑倒。
提出者:美国管理学家蓝斯登。
点评:进退有度,才不至进退维谷;宠辱皆忘,方可以宠辱不惊。

卢维斯定理 :谦虚不是把自己想得很糟,而是完全不想自己。
提出者:美国心理学家卢维斯
点评:如果把自己想得太好,就很容易将别人想得很糟。

托利得定理: 测验一个人的智力是否属于上乘,只看脑子里能否同时容纳两种相反的思想,而无碍于其处世行事。
提出者:法国社会心理学家托利得
点评:思可相反,得须相成。

二、统御

刺猬理论 :刺猬在天冷时彼此靠拢取暖,但保持一定距离,以免互相刺伤。
点评:保持亲密的重要方法,乃是保持适当的距离。

鲦鱼效应 :鲦鱼因个体弱小而常常群居,并以强健者为自然首领。将一只稍强的鲦鱼脑后控制行为的部分割除后,此鱼便失去自制力,行动也发生紊乱,但其他鲦鱼却仍像从前一样盲目追随。
提出者:德国动物学家霍斯特
点评:1、下属的悲剧总是领导一手造成的。 2、下属觉得最没劲的事,是他们跟着一位最差劲的领导

雷鲍夫法则 :在你着手建立合作和信任时要牢记我们语言中:
1、最重要的八个字是:我承认我犯过错误
2、最重要的七个字是:你干了一件好事
3、最重要的六个字是:你的看法如何
4、最重要的五个字是:咱们一起干
5、最重要的四个字是:不妨试试
6、最重要的三个字是:谢谢您
7、最重要的两个字是:咱们
8、最重要的一个字是:您
提出者:美国管理学家雷鲍夫
点评:1、最重要的四个字是:不妨试试; 2、最重要的一个字是:您

洛伯定理 :对于一个经理人来说,最要紧的不是你在场时的情况,而是你不在场时发生了什么。
提出者:美国管理学家洛伯
点评:如果只想让下属听你的,那么当你不在身边时他们就不知道应该听谁的了。

三、沟通

斯坦纳定理 :在哪里说得愈少,在哪里听到的就愈多。
提出者:美国心理学家斯坦纳
点评:只有很好听取别人的,才能更好说出自己的。

费斯诺定理:人两只耳朵却只有一张嘴巴,这意味着人应该多听少讲。
提出者:英国联合航空公司总裁兼总经理费斯诺
点评:说得过多了,说的就会成为做的障碍。

牢骚效应 :凡是公司中有对工作发牢骚的人,那家公司或老板一定比没有这种人或有这种人而把牢骚埋在肚子里公司要成功得多。
提出者:美国密歇根大学社会研究院
点评:1、牢骚是改变不合理现状的催化剂。 2、牢骚虽不总是正确的,但认真对待牢骚却总是正确的。

避雷针效应 :在高大建筑物顶端安装一个金属棒,用金属线与埋在地下的一块金属板连接起来,利用金属棒的尖端放电,使云层所带的电和地上的电逐渐中和,从而保护建筑物等避免雷击。
点评:善疏则通,能导必安

四、协调

氨基酸组合效应 :组成人体蛋白的八种氨基酸,只要有一种含量不足,其他七种就无法合成蛋白质。
点评:当缺一不可时,一就是一切。

米格-25效应 :前苏联研制的米格-25喷气式战斗机的许多零部件与美国的相比都落后,但因设计者考虑了整体性能,故能在升降、速度、应急反应等方面成为当时世界一流。
点评:所谓最佳整体,乃是个体的最佳组合。

磨合效应 :新组装的机器,通过一定时期的使用,把磨擦面上的加工痕迹磨光而变得更加密合。
点评:要想达到完整的契合,须双方都做出必要的割舍。

五、指导

波特定理 :当遭受许多批评时,下级往往只记住开头的一些,其余就不听了,因为他们忙于思索论据来反驳开头的批评。
提出者:英国行为学家波特
点评:总盯着下属的失误,是一个领导者的最大失误。

蓝斯登定律 :跟一位朋友一起工作,远较在父亲之下工作有趣得多。
提出者:美国管理学家蓝斯登
点评:可敬不可亲,终难敬;有权没有威,常失权。

吉尔伯特法则 :工作危机最确凿的信号,是没有人跟你说该怎样作。
提出者:英国人力培训专家吉尔伯特
点评:真正危险的事,是没人跟你谈危险。

权威暗示效应 :一化学家称,他将测验一瓶臭气的传播速度,他打开瓶盖15秒后,前排学生即举手,称自己闻到臭气,而后排的人则陆续举手,纷纷称自己也已闻到,其实瓶中什么也没有。
点评:迷信则轻信,盲目必盲从。

六、组织

奥尼尔定理 :所有的政治都是地方的。
提出者:美国前众议院院长奥尼尔
点评:只有能切身体会到的,群众才认为那是真实的。

定位效应: 社会心理学家曾作过一个试验:在召**议时先让人们自由选择位子,之后到室外休息片刻再进入室内入座,如此五至六次,发现大多数人都选择他们第一次坐过的位子。
点评:凡是自己认定的,人们大都不想轻易改变它。

艾奇布恩定理 :如果你遇见员工而不认得,或忘了他的名字,那你的公司就太大了点。
提出者:英国史蒂芬约瑟剧院导演亚伦艾奇布恩
点评:摊子一旦铺得过大,你就很难把它照顾周全。

七、培养

吉格勒定理 :除了生命本身,没有任何才能不需要后天的锻炼。
提出者:美国培训专家吉格吉格勒
点评:水无积无辽阔,人不养不成才。

犬獒效应 :当年幼的藏犬长出牙齿并能撕咬时,主人就把它们放到一个没有食物和水的封闭环境里让这些幼犬自相撕咬,最后剩下一只活着的犬,
这只犬称为獒。据说十只犬才能产生一只獒。
点评:困境是造就强者的学校。

八、选拔

近因效应 :最近或最后的印象对人的认知有强烈的影响。
提出者:美国社会心理学家洛钦斯。
点评:结果往往会被视为过程的总结。

洒井法则 :在招工时用尽浑身解数,使出各种方法,不如使自身成为一个好公司,这样人才自然而然会汇集而来。
提出者:日本企业管理顾问酒井正敬。
点评:不能吸引人才,已有的人才也留不住。

美即好效应 :对一个外表英俊漂亮的人,人们很容易误认为他或她的其他方面也很不错。
提出者:美国心理学家丹尼尔麦克尼尔。
点评:印象一旦以情绪为基础,这一印象常会偏离事实。

九、任用

奥格尔维法则 :如果我们每个人都雇用比我们自己都更强的人,我们就能成为巨人公司。
提出者:美国奥格尔维马瑟公司总裁奥格尔维。
点评:如果你所用的人都比你差,那么他们就只能作出比你更差的事情。

  皮尔卡丹定理 :用人上一加一不等于二,搞不好等于零。
提出者:法国著名企业家皮尔卡丹。
点评:组合失当,常失整体优势,安排得宜,才成最佳配置。

十、激励

马蝇效应 :再懒惰的马,只要身上有马蝇叮咬,它也会精神抖擞,飞快奔跑。
点评:有正确的刺激,才会有正确的反应。

倒u形假说 :当一个人处于轻度兴奋时,能把工作作得最好。当一个人一点儿兴奋都没有时,也就没有作好工作的动力了;相应地,当一个人处于极度兴奋时,随之而来的压力 可能会使他完不成本该完成的工作。世界网坛名将贝克尔之所以被称为常胜将军,其秘诀之一即是在比赛中自始至防止过度兴奋,而保持半兴奋状态。所以有人亦将 倒u形假说称为贝克尔境界。
提出者:英国心理学家罗伯特?耶基斯和多德林。
点评:1、激情过热,激情就会把理智烧光。2、热情中的冷静让人清醒,冷静中的热情使人执着。

伊顿公司CEO“力挺”中国 Eaton chief hits out at Beijing’s critics

Criticism of China for its role in favouring local industry at the expense of US companies has gone too far and could lead to a dangerous bout of trade protectionism, according to Sandy Cutler, chief executive of Eaton , the US industrial conglomerate,

美国工业集团伊顿公司(Eaton)首席执行官柯仁杰(Sandy Cutler)表示,对中国以损害美国公司的利益为代价、偏袒本土产业的批评之辞,有些过头,可能引发一波危险的贸易保护主义浪潮。

Mr Cutler, CEO at the group for the past 10 years, said that some of the criticism of China by US industrialists and politicians over actions such as currency manipulation was the result of “national jealousy” in the US about China’s relatively buoyant economy.

过去十年一直担任伊顿CEO的柯仁杰表示,美国产业界和政界人士对中国操纵汇率等做法的一些批评,是源于美国国内对于中国经济相对强劲的“嫉妒心理”。

“There is a strand of political thought in the US that is against the idea of free trade, with China bearing the brunt of a lot of negative comments,” said Mr Cutler in an interview with the Financial Times in London.

柯仁杰在伦敦接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示:“美国有一股违背自由贸易理念的政治思潮,而中国承受了许多负面评论。”

“But I hope the US will resist the populist idea that the best way to ignite [national] growth is to construct walls around local economies through protectionist measures, the aims of which are to restrict trade.”

“有人认为,通过保护主义措施给本国经济筑起围墙是刺激(国内)经济增长的一种方式,而我希望美国能够抵制这种民粹主义思想。这些保护主义做法的目的是限制贸易。”

Mr Cutler said such moves – which could include the imposition of high tariffs and other import barriers to restrict sales in the US of goods made in China and other countries – were part of “discredited” policies that would only damage growth in the long run.

柯仁杰表示,此类举动可能包括加征较高关税和施行其他进口壁垒,以限制中国和其他国家生产的商品在美国的销售,它们都是“不足取的”政策,长远来看只会破坏经济增长。

Some politicians and industrialists in the US have called for tariff barriers as a way to stimulate the US economy, which is still struggling to move into a higher phase of growth after the recession.

美国一些政界和产业界人士呼吁将关税壁垒作为刺激美国经济的一种手段。目前,美国经济仍处在衰退之后艰难迈向更高增长水平的阶段。

In 2011, according to projections from IHS Global Insight, an economics consultancy, the US is likely to lose its position as the world’s biggest manufacturing nation by output, with China taking over as the number one in this field, ending more than 100 years in which the US has been the leader.

经济咨询公司环球通视(IHS Global Insight)预计,2011年美国可能失去全球最大制造国(以产出衡量)的地位,中国将拔得头筹,终结美国100多年来在这方面的领袖地位。

Asked about negative comments about China earlier in the year by Jeff Immelt, chief executive of General Electric , Mr Cutler said he did not share the view that the mood in China was turning against foreign businesses.

在被问及对今年早些时候通用电气(GE)首席执行官杰夫•伊梅尔特(Jeff Immelt)有关中国的负面评论时,柯仁杰表示,自己并不认同中国对外国企业的态度正在恶化的说法。

“There are some political pressures inside China to favour local companies when awarding [government] contracts but this is not the same as saying that the climate is acting to discourage companies based outside China,” Mr Cutler said.

柯仁杰表示:“在给(政府)项目时,中国国内存在某些向本土企业倾斜的政治压力,但这并不是说,大气候正变得排斥外国企业。”

He also side-stepped the question of whether China had indulged in “currency manipulation” by giving its exporters an artificial boost through keeping the renminbi low. The topic is another controversial issue in the US, with a number of commentators pressing for the US government to step up action to force a revaluation. “I don’t have the [economic] competence to give a view as to whether the renminbi is fairly valued.”

对于中国是否沉迷于“操纵汇率”,通过压低人民币汇率人为地增强本国出口企业竞争力的问题,柯仁杰没有正面回答。这在美国是另一个争议话题,许多评论人士向美国政府施压,要求加大力度、迫使人民币升值。“我的(经济学)水平,尚不足以对人民币汇率是否合理发表意见。”

But he added that swings in currencies were a problem for most international manufacturers, and that they had to cope as best they could. One way to do this, he said, was to open up local centres of production so that demand for goods in specific countries could be matched as much as possible by products made in the same location, as a result reducing currency risks.

但他补充称,汇率波动是多数跨国制造企业所面临的问题,必须尽力应对。他表示,方法之一是建立本地生产中心,从而使特定国家的产品需求,能尽可能地由当地生产的产品来满足,以此降低汇率风险。

Mr Cutler – whose company is likely this year to have sales in China of about $1bn, making the country one of its largest markets – said China’s political rulers deserved praise for “the fine job” they had made of “fine-tuning” the economy by pushing up growth without sparking inflation.

伊顿在华销售额今年可能达到10亿美元,中国将成为该公司最大的市场之一。柯仁杰表示,中国领导人通过对经济进行“微调”,在没有引发过高通胀的情况下推动了增长,他们“做得不错”,应该受到称赞。

沃尔玛进军中国电子商务市场 Walmart finds online ally in China

China’s rapidly expanding e-commerce market has caught the attention of Walmart, the world’s largest retailer. Walmart has is one of six companies investing a total of $500m in 360buy.com, reportedly China’s largest online seller of consumer electronics. Walmart’s individual investment has not been made public.

中国快速扩张的电子商务市场吸引了全球最大零售商沃尔玛(Walmart)的注意。有6家公司将向据称是中国最大在线电器销售商——京东商城(360buy.com)投资5亿美元,沃尔玛就是其中之一。不过,沃尔玛的具体投资金额尚未公开。

Walmart, which will have around 300 stores in China when it completes its takeover of the Trustmart chain, entered the country’s e-commerce business on its own account last month. It launched www.samsclub.cn, linked to the handful of Sam’s Club discount warehouses that it operates in southern China.

在完成对好又多(Trustmart)连锁店的收购后,沃尔玛在中国的门店数量将达到300家左右。该公司上月进入了中国的电子商务市场,推出山姆会员网上商店(www.samsclub.cn),可以链接至其在中国南方经营的几家山姆俱乐部(Sam’s Club)仓储式折扣店。

The Sam’s Club site is the first to be rolled out using a new global e-commerce platform that has been under development at Walmart’s digital headquarters in San Francisco for over two years. So it would be relatively easy for the retailer to follow up with a Walmart – or Trustmart – branded parallel site, after ironing out any glitches under the smaller Sam’s Club business. Distribution, however, represents a larger challenge.

山姆会员网上商店将率先使用沃尔玛旧金山数字总部开发了两年之久的新式全球电子商务平台。因此,在解决了规模较小的山姆俱乐部业务的所有小故障后,沃尔玛要继续开发沃尔玛或好又多品牌的平行网站就会相对容易一些。然而,分销是一个更大的挑战。

But the investment in 360buy.com also suggests that the retailer sees potential for a repeat of the kind of mutually beneficial partnerships it has developed with digital businesses in the US. Since 2008, it has been working with 1-800-Contacts, the largest online contact lens business, in a deal that involved shifting its own online and in-store contact lens business over to its partner, and sharing costs. It is also a minority investor in Green Dot, an internet based payment and financial service, that it uses to support its pre-paid store payment cards.

但投资京东商城也表明,沃尔玛认为复制它与美国数字企业形成的那种互利合作关系是有潜力的。自2008年以来,沃尔玛一直在与全球最大的在线隐形眼镜企业1-800-Contacts合作,内容包括将自己的在线和店内隐形眼镜业务转交给合作伙伴,双方分摊成本。此外,沃尔玛是基于互联网的支付和金融服务公司绿点(Green Dot)的少数股东,沃尔玛利用该公司为其预付费门店支付卡提供支持。

The CEO of 360buy.com reportedly told a news conference last week that the company wants to invest the $500m raised in new distribution centres – while Walmart is very interested in the in-store pick-up model it has developed in the US for online orders. So perhaps one day a Chinese consumer could shop on 360buy.com and pick the item up at the local Walmart? Or 360buy could fulfill online electronics orders for Walmart.com in China?

京东商城首席执行官刘强东上周在新闻发布会上表示,该公司希望将筹得的5亿美元资金投资于新的分销中心,而沃尔玛对于其在美国开发的在线订单到店提货(in-store pick-up)模式非常感兴趣。因此,或许有一天,中国消费者可以在京东商城购物,在当地的沃尔玛店取货?或者,京东商城可以为沃尔玛网站Walmart.com在中国执行在线电子产品订单?

In the bricks-and-mortar world, the retailer now generally prefers to form partnerships with local partners when entering a new market – as it has done recently in Central America and Chile, and as it plans to do in South Africa with its ongoing Massmart deal. With Alibaba’s Taobao, Amazon’s Joyo.com and others already established in China’s online market, it looks like Walmart has opted for another local ally.

在实体领域,当进军新市场时,沃尔玛现在一般倾向于与当地伙伴合作,就像它最近在中美洲和智利所做的那样。在南非正在进行的Massmart交易中,沃尔玛也打算这样做。由于阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的淘宝(Taobao)、亚马逊(Amazon)的卓越网(Joyo.com)等网站已在中国的在线市场占据了一席之地,沃尔玛似乎选择了另一个地方盟友。

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

搞笑版《非洲留英学生家信》 Yours baffled, on austerity, Bono and&n

Dear Father,

亲爱的爸爸:

Greetings from London, where everyone is talking about “cuts”. Just like those times when you battled with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Remember that day when two young men came to your office? It was their first visit to Africa. They were clever. One worked for the Bank, the other the Fund. You were permanent secretary in education. They wanted to talk about cuts: in the civil service, in health, in education, in state-owned corporations, everywhere, cuts. You came back to our house that night very angry.

我从伦敦送来问候。现在这里人人都在谈论“削减开支”。就像回到了你和国际货币基金组织(IMF)及世界银行(World Bank)作斗争的日子。你还记得那天吗?那两个年轻人走进你的办公室。他们是第一次到访非洲。两个聪明的年轻人,一个为世界银行工作,另一个供职于IMF。当时你任教育部常务秘书。他们想和你谈谈“削减开支”的事:从公务员系统,到医疗、教育和国有企业,处处都要削减。那天晚上,你回到家里,怒气冲冲。

“These clever boys with their structural adjustment programmes, they will make life very hard, they will destroy a generation,” you told Mother at dinner.

“这两个聪明小子和他们的结构性调整计划,会让人们的日子变得异常难过,他们会毁掉一代人的,”在餐桌上,你这么对妈妈说。

Here in England, there is the same talk, same words, same ideas.

在当今的英国,人们进行着同样的对话,用着同样的字眼,传递着同样的想法。

“And perhaps same results,” said cousin Didymus. Our English friend Anthony, who wants to go to university, did not laugh.

“结局也可能相同,”表兄迪戴莫斯这样说。我们的英国朋友安东尼没有笑。他是想去上大学的。

“Not funny,” he said.

“这一点也不好笑,”他说。

Thank goodness, the IMF and the Bank don’t bother us in Africa as much as they used to. Instead they now watch Ireland – just like they used to watch us, when they sat in their central bank office, the one next to the governor’s.

谢天谢地,IMF和世界银行不像以前那样老是来打扰我们非洲了。现在他们盯着爱尔兰呢——就像过去他们坐在总督隔壁的央行办公室里盯着我们一样。

Who, by the way, is on the African Union delegation that will advise the Irish on “stakeholder ownership and grassroots participation and thorough consultation”? I hear they will meet Bono, who will lead supermodels, popstars and BBC newsreaders in an appeal to “Drop Ireland’s Debt”.

顺便问一句,在非洲联盟代表团中,谁将向爱尔兰提供咨询,介绍“利益相关者所有权、基层参与和彻底协商”?我听说他们将与爱尔兰歌星波诺(Bono)会晤。波诺将率超级模特、流行歌星和英国广播公司(BBC)新闻播报员呼吁债权人“免除爱尔兰的债务”。

Anthony tells me there will be an airlift to Dublin of aid experts, development consultants and cross-cutting specialists, even.

安东尼告诉我,一批援助专家、发展顾问、甚至还有交叉削减专家将搭乘专机赶赴都柏林。

He says he might join them, and do a year off pre-university in Ireland.

他说他可能会加入他们,在爱尔兰读一年大学预科。

In their last letter to me, my sister and brother asked me to explain these cuts in England. I will try. Some things I know they will not believe, but they are true. Other things are very difficult to explain, and I myself am still learning. When I asked my lecturer in sociology to explain things, he said “poverty is relative”. This means . . . well, I am not sure.

在最近的一封信里,姐姐和弟弟希望我能解释一下英国的削减开支措施。我试试看吧。有些事情我知道他们不会相信的,但这些事都千真万确。还有一些事情很难解释,我自己也仍在琢磨。我请社会学讲师解释一些事情,他说“贫困是相对的”。这句话的意思是……唉,其实我也不确定。

But first, much has happened since I left home and came to study here. It is costing more than we thought. But I am lucky. Very lucky. I have work at McDonald’s. They pay me the minimum wage, £6 an hour. Some of my English friends call this a “rubbish” rate. I think this is why very few English students are working at McDonald’s.

不过首先要说的是,自从我离开家到英国留学以来,英国发生了很多事情。开支之大超出我们的想象。不过我是幸运的。非常幸运。我在麦当劳打工,拿最低工资,每小时6英镑。我的一些英国朋友称其为“垃圾”水平。我想这就是为什么很少有英国学生在麦当劳打工。

I tell them that in a single weekend, working overtime, I earn what my youngest brother is paid as a security guard, for one year. Anthony is asking his parents and their friends to sponsor him, and raise money for his “gap year”. This means he wants them to buy his ticket to Africa. He says he will come to our country and help the people living in slums. This would be “brilliant”, he informed me.

我跟他们说,如果我加一个周末的班,赚到的钱相当于我最小的弟弟当保安一年的工资。安东尼正在请求父母和他们的朋友提供赞助,筹钱帮他度过那一年的“空档期”。这意味着他希望他们替他支付去非洲的机票。他说要到我们的国家来,帮助那些住在贫民窟里的人。他告诉我,这会是件“很棒”的事情。

Now let me answer about the “cuts”. People are very afraid of the cuts, especially “savage cuts”, that will come soon. Every day they are crying. I have listened carefully.

现在让我来解释一下“削减开支”。人们非常惧怕削减开支,特别是很快就要到来的“大幅削减”。他们每天都在叫唤。我一直在仔细聆听。

These are some of the things I have learnt. This part of the letter, my family, you may not believe. But I promise you, it is true.

下面是我了解到的一些事情。我的家人啊,下面这部分内容你们或许不会相信,但我向你们保证,这都是真的。

First, in this country the government pays people to have children. One thousand pounds! Yes, I know – that is the average income of our people!

首先,在这个国家,政府出钱鼓励人们生育。整整1000英镑!没错,我知道——那可是我国国民的年均收入啊!

One thousand! For every child. Every year. Until they are 18.

1000英镑!每个孩子的家长每年都能得到1000英镑,直到孩子18岁。

Didymus says you are not to tell Uncle Tangwenya. Already he is father to seven. If he were promised money for making his children, he would come to London and no woman would be safe, says Didymus.

迪戴莫斯要你别告诉唐温亚舅舅。他已经有7个孩子了。迪戴莫斯说,如果有人向他保证,生孩子就有钱拿,他会立刻到伦敦来,女人们可就都危险了。

These child allowances will soon be cut, says the government. For me, it is duck’s water off my back, but for parents it is very worrying.

现在政府表示,这些子女津贴很快就会遭到削减。对我而言,这毫无影响,但做父母的非常担心。

My sister Patience asked me if it was true that children in England did not have to walk to school. This is correct. If a child lives more than three miles from school, the council must provide transport. By taxi, even! Yes, that is the law.

姐姐佩兴丝问我是不是英国的孩子不用走路上学。确实是这样的,如果一个孩子住在离学校超过3英里的地方,地方议会就必须提供交通工具。甚至可能是出租车。没错,这是法律规定。

But there is great fear that the cuts could end this. Other things may be cut. The children of my neighbour are very lazy, and are still sleeping when they should be at school. Yes! Sleeping! Even though they have a proper college with books and teachers, and classrooms with windows, with glass in them.

但现在家长们非常担心由于削减开支,这种服务也将中止。可能被削减的东西还有。我邻居的孩子很懒,本应该到学校的时候还在睡觉。是的!睡觉!即便他们有像样的学校,不缺书本和老师,教室有完好的玻璃窗户。

But if they arrive each day on time, they get paid! Yes! Twenty pounds a week. Just for getting to their college on time. They call it the “education maintenance allowance”.

不过如果他们每天能按时上学,就能拿到钱!没错,每周20镑,只要按时上学就能拿到。这叫做“教育维护津贴”。

Next time I will tell more about this “cuts” business – though much of it you won’t believe. At home, when you are sacked, you can starve. In this country, never. Never! There are “redundancy payments” and “unemployment benefits” and training schemes.

下封信我会进一步解释有关“削减开支”的事——尽管很多东西你们都不会相信的。在我们国家,一旦被裁员你就会挨饿。在这个国家,你永远不会挨饿!永远不!你可以领取“遣散费”和“失业保险”,还能免费参加培训计划。

I must finish now, otherwise I will be late for work. Didymus told me to ask my sociology teacher: “Is hunger relative, just like you say poverty is relative?”

我必须收笔了,否则上班就要迟到了。迪戴莫斯让我问我的社会学教师,“饥饿也是相对的吗,就像你说贫困是相对的那样?”

“Funny you should ask,” he replied, “because that is the subject of your next essay. Hand it in to me by Tuesday.”

“你问得真巧,”他回答道。“因为你的下一篇论文就是这个题目。在周二前交给我。”

Didymus said I must write what Kenneth Kaunda said after years of cuts in Zambia: “The medicine was so strong it killed the patient.”

迪戴莫斯说,我应该写上赞比亚前总统肯尼思•卡翁达(Kenneth Kaunda)在该国缩减开支多年后所说的话:“药力太强也会害死病人。”

Anthony was very interested. “Are the people in Zambia still hurting?” he asked.

安东尼对此很感兴趣。“赞比亚的人民还在受罪吗?”他问。

“Yes”, I said. He looked more cheerful: “Sounds a good place for my gap year. If I don’t go to Ireland . . . ”

“是的,”我回答道。他看上去更有劲头了:“听上去是我度过空档期的绝佳地点。如果我不去爱尔兰的话……”

Your loving son.

爱你的儿子。

印度火箭爆炸 太空计划受挫 India's space programme suffers set back

India’s celebrated space programme suffered a severe embarrassment over the Christmas weekend when a communications satellite veered off course after lift off and exploded.

圣诞节周末,印度通信卫星升空后偏离轨道继而爆炸,该国备受瞩目的太空计划因此事受到严重羞辱。

Television footage showed the rocket engulfed in plumes of black and brown smoke about a minute after leaving its launch pad at a location near India’s southern city of Chennai.

电视画面显示,火箭在脱离发射台一分钟后就被黑棕色的浓烟吞噬。这枚火箭是在印度南部城市钦奈(Chennai)附近的一个发射场发射的。

The Christmas Day mishap was the second failure of a satellite launch in a year at a time when India is trying to commercialise its satellite launch capabilities. In April, a similar rocket carrying a satellite had similarly veered off course.

圣诞节发生的这起事故是印度一年内的第二次卫星发射失败。今年4月,一枚携带卫星的类似火箭也以相似的方式偏离轨道。印度正努力实现该国火箭发射能力的商业化。

India has in past weeks signed agreements with major powers, including Russia and France, to boost its space programme, the Bangalore-based Indian Space Research Organisation. The space programme is a source of great national pride – exploring space was a dream of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister.

过去几周,印度已与包括俄罗斯和法国在内的主要大国签署多份协议,以促进由位于班加罗尔的印度空间研究组织(Indian Space Research Organisation,简称:ISRO)主持的印度太空计划。太空计划是印度民族自豪感的来源之一,印度首任总理贾瓦哈拉尔•尼赫鲁(Jawaharlal Nehru)就曾梦想探索太空。

The international attention received by ISRO has raised expectations that India’s space programme may work more closely with Russia, the US and the European Union.

ISRO受到了国际社会的关注,促使外界预期印度的太空计划可能会与俄罗斯、美国和欧盟展开更紧密的合作。

Indian scientists on Sunday said they were studying the explosion to discover why the rocket, propelled by Russian-designed engines, had malfunctioned. The Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) was carrying the GSAT-5P communication satellite, intended for telecom, television and weather transmissions, when it exploded.

印度科学家周日表示正在对爆炸进行调查,试图找出这枚由俄罗斯设计的引擎推进的火箭因何出现故障。地球同步卫星运载火箭(GSLV)爆炸时,火箭上携带了用于电信、电视和天气信息传输的GSAT-5P通信卫星。

Its original launch date had been postponed from 20 December.

火箭原定12月20日发射,后被推迟。

India has an ambitious satellite programme and is marketing its low-cost launches to other international partners in the region, including Singapore. New Delhi also has plans to send manned missions to space in coming years.

印度的火箭发射计划雄心勃勃,并向该地区其它国际合作伙伴(包括新加坡)推销其低成本发射业务。新德里方面还计划在未来几年发射载人航天器。

But the latest failure reflects a string of difficulties India has encountered sending heavy payloads into space.

但最近的这次失败却反映出印度在向太空发射运载火箭方面遇到的一系列困难。

An Asian space race has developed 30 years after Russia and the US vied for space supremacy. China and Japan over the past three years have also launched lunar missions.

美苏两国太空争霸之后,亚洲国家的太空竞赛已经发展了30年。中国和日本过去三年中也启动了探月项目。

China is to assist neighbouring Pakistan with its space programme and satellite launches, after the visit to Islamabad by Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, earlier this month.

在中国总理温家宝本月早些时候访问伊斯兰堡后,中国将向邻国巴基斯坦的太空计划和卫星发射提供帮助。

Although a launch date has not been announced, China is expected to launch the Pakistani satellite in August, most probably mid-month on the day when Pakistan celebrates its day of independence in 1947.

预计中国将在明年8月发射巴基斯坦卫星。具体发射日期尚未宣布,不过最可能的日期是明年8月中旬巴基斯坦庆祝1947年独立之时。

成功秘诀:把别人不愿意做的事做好

成功者所从事的工作,是绝大多数的人不愿意去做的。------这是以美国管理学者韦特来名字命名的“韦特莱法则”,换一句话说得全面的点:做别人都不愿意做的事,并把它做得更好,你就会取得成功。

韦特莱法则的启示

------做别人不愿意做的事,竞争者少,事半功倍,容易成功。

每个人的智商都是差不多的,大家都想做的事,一定会竞争激烈,相对你自己来讲机会就很少了。因别人都不愿意做,所以竞争者较少,你的机会就会更多,容易取得事半功倍的效果。

------做别人不愿意做的事,无人注目,专注工作,容易成功。

做大家都想做、关注的事,你既要研发作事,又要防别人“盗窃”,还要应付各种关注,无时间工作。做别人不愿意做的事,会被别人当成“傻子”,无人注意而可以潜心研究,工作效果更明显。

------做别人不愿意做的事,需要勇气,持之以恒,容易成功。

别人不愿做的事,肯定会有众多原因的。一是做别人不愿意做的事需要勇气。

林肯因签写《解放奴隶宣言》而名留千史,是因为他的前两任总统缺乏勇气。同行下海取得成功,那是因为大家在那个年代都没有“下海”的勇气。二是做别人不愿意做的事需要毅力。许多别人不愿意做的事,如指甲刀利太小,不愿做;环保项目周期太长,不愿做。广东非常小器公司的董事长梁伯强先生,经多年来的专注和努力,把大企业不愿做,小企业做不来,让老百姓烦恼的“小不点”产品——指甲钳做成了中国第一,世界第三的“巨无霸”,年销售额过亿元,需要勇气和毅力。三是做别人不愿意做的事要有优势。既要分析好自己,把自己的优势找出来,在分析好别人不愿意做的事中有哪些和自己的优势相重叠,这样做起来容易取得成功。

Saturday, December 25, 2010

中国增长模式不可持续 China’s growth model labelled ‘unsustainable’

China’s growth model is un­sustainable and the country faces a sudden slowdown unless it undergoes urgent economic and political reforms, according to a re­nown­ed Chinese academic.

中国一位知名学者表示,中国的增长模式不可持续,中国经济有可能突然减速,除非立即进行经济和政治改革。

A scathing indictment of the country’s extraordinary growth story, written by Yu Yongding, a former member of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee, has been published in the state-controlled China Daily newspaper.

前中国人民银行(PBoC)货币政策委员会委员余永定为由政府控制的《中国日报》(China Daily)撰文,对中国非同寻常的增长神话进行了严厉批判。

It points to rising social tensions, pollution, a lack of public services and an over-reliance on exports and investment, particularly in property, as threats to the nation’s economic future.

文章指出,不断加剧的社会矛盾、污染、公共服务的缺失,以及对出口和投资(尤其是房地产)的过度依赖,都在威胁中国经济的前景。

“China’s rapid growth has been achieved at an ex­tremely high cost. Only future generations will know the true price,” Mr Yu wrote in an editorial.

余永定在这篇社论文章中写道:“中国经济在快速增长的同时也付出了巨大的代价,这些代价却要我们的子孙后代来承担。”

“[The] growth pattern has now almost exhausted its potential. So China has reached a crucial juncture: without painful structural adjustments the momentum of its economic growth could suddenly be lost.”

“(该增长模式)如今已经耗尽其潜力。因此,中国的发展也到了关键的时刻:经济结构调整过程虽然痛苦,但如若不实行,中国经济将丧失良好的增长势头。”

His comments come at a time when many inter­national observers already accept the inevitability of China overtaking the US as the world’s largest economy. Within China, many Communist party leaders speak about the superiority of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, as shown by its apparent resilience in the global financial crisis.

目前,许多国际观察人士已接受了这样一个观点:即中国必然会取代美国,成为全球第一大经济体。在中国内部,中共许多领导人都在谈论“中国特色社会主义”的优越性,而中国在本轮全球金融危机中所表现出来的抵抗力也似乎证明了这一点。

China’s economy grew 9.6 per cent in the third quarter from the same period in 2009. But many economists are worried about overheating after annual consumer price inflation rose from 4.4 per cent in October to 5.1 per cent last month.

中国经济在第三季度同比增长9.6%,但居民消费价格(CPI)涨幅也从10月份的4.4%上升至上月的5.1%,许多经济学家都担心经济正出现过热。

Mr Yu has been influential in Chinese policymaking. Besides his central bank role, he is former head of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. His harsh critique reflects a debate among policymakers before a 2012 transition that will see many of China’s leaders replaced by younger cadres.

余永定在中国的政策制定方面颇具影响力。除了曾在央行任职,他还担任过中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长。他这篇措辞严厉的评论文章反映出,在2012年政府换届之前,中国的政策制定者们正展开激烈的辩论。政府换届后,中国现在的许多领导人将为更年轻的干部所取代。

Joseph Cheng, a professor of political science at the City University of Hong Kong, said many reform-minded scholars were concerned that reforms had stagnated “because leaders are preoccupied with jockeying for position”.

香港城市大学(City University of Hong Kong)政治学教授郑宇硕(Joseph Cheng)表示,许多具有改革意识的学者都担心,“由于领导人都专注于争权夺位”,改革已陷入停滞。

Mr Yu described a lack of innovation and creativity as the economy’s “Achilles heel”, and lamented the inefficient use of capital.

余永定将创新和创造力的缺失形容为中国经济的“阿喀琉斯之踵”,并对资本利用的低效表示叹息。

“Some local governments are literally digging holes and then filling them in to ratchet up the GDP,” he wrote. “Consequently, there are simply too many luxurious condominiums, magnificent government office buildings and soaring skyscrapers.”

“一些地方政府简直是自己挖坑自己填,只为创造GDP,”他写道。“结果只是一幢幢豪华别墅、政府办公大楼和摩天大楼拔地而起。”

While most of his observations have been ex­pressed before, it is unusual to see such complaints from a senior establishment scholar in state media. His comments included a call for political reform to help “break the unholy alliance” between government officials and business people.

尽管他的大部分言论以前就曾表达过,但在官方媒体上看到资深当权派学者表达这些不满仍属罕见。余永定还在社论中呼吁中国进行政治改革,打破权贵之间的“罪恶联盟”。

“Under China’s current institutional arrangements, meritocracy is a prerequisite for good governance, but meritocracy has been eroded by a political culture of sycophancy and cynicism. Once again, the dialectics of economic development has brought political reform back to the fore.”

“在中国当前的政治体制安排下,政治精英是好政府的先决条件。但是,政治精英已经被谄媚与犬儒的政治文化所腐蚀。所以,经济要发展,政改要先行。”

If China could not change the current system of “capitalism of the rich and powerful” and reduce the widening gap between rich and poor that was “fomenting social tension”, then “a serious backlash is brewing”.

如果中国无法改变当前“权贵资本主义”体制,缩小“致使社会矛盾不断加剧”的逐步拉大的贫富差距,必将招致民众的强烈反抗。

网络冷笑话讥讽中国高房价 Viral e-mails highlight China’s unequal society

The anger harboured by Beijingers about sky-high housing prices has been captured in a sardonic e-mail spreading in Chinese cyberspace calculating how long it would take peasants, thieves and prostitutes to buy a home.

北京居民对高涨的房价心怀愤怒,这一点在中文网络上流传的一封计算农民、抢劫犯和妓女买房各需多长时间的讽刺电邮中可见一斑。

With consumer inflation in China topping 5.1 per cent in November, public dissatisfaction over price increases has reached the highest level since records began in 1999, according to a recent central bank survey.

中国居民消费价格11月份上涨了5.1%。而最近中国央行一份调查显示,公众对物价上涨的不满意度达到了1999年开始编制这项统计以来的最高水平。

But such surveys cannot convey the acerbic political wit that Chinese people, and especially Beijingers, are famous for when they have to “eat bitterness”, in this case to meet the cost of buying a home.

然而,这些调查并不能表现出中国人——尤其是北京人——那为人熟知的尖刻的政治幽默。这种幽默往往在他们必须“吃苦”时表露无遗,具体到这封邮件就是指为了买房所要付出的代价。

The e-mail, which has gone viral in various versions, provides unscientific but entertaining estimates of how long citizens need to work to afford a 100 sq m apartment in central Beijing, which currently sells for about Rmb3m ($450,000).

这封以多个版本广泛流传的电子邮件,估算了市民要在北京市中心购买一套100平米、现价300万元(合45万美元)的住房需要多长时间。这些估算并不科学,但十分有趣。

As long as there were no natural disasters, a peasant farmer working an average plot of land would just have been able to afford an apartment if he or she somehow had worked from the Tang Dynasty, which ended in 907AD, until now.

如果不发生自然灾害,一个耕种某大小中等地块的农民,需要从唐朝开始攒钱到现在才买得起房。唐朝结束于公元907年。

If a Chinese blue-collar worker had been on the average monthly salary of Rmb1,500 since the Opium Wars in the mid-19th century and had given up weekends, then he or she might just have been able to afford a place of their own.

一个月均工资1500元的中国蓝领工人,如果放弃周六日休息,要从19世纪中叶的鸦片战争开始攒钱,才能买得起自己的住房。

Prostitutes, the e-mail says, would have to entertain 10,000 customers, a marathon feat requiring them to service a single customer a night from the age of 18 until the age of 46 without an evening off.

这封电子邮件中说,妓女需要接客1万次,如果每天接一次客,她们需要一天不停地从18岁接客到46岁才能完成这一马拉松式的“壮举”。

The thief would need to conduct 2,500 robberies to find the funds to buy a home.

而抢劫犯如果要想攒够买房的钱,需要抢劫2500次。

Of course, the e-mail notes, such calculations do not count interior decoration, furniture or household electronics.

当然,这封电子邮件还说,这些估算还不包括装修、家具和家电费用。

欧盟给中华民国免签证待遇1月11日起生效 35国免

中华民国外交部22日宣布,欧盟当天在欧盟公报上正式刊登了同意台湾免签证入境
的法案,将在20天后正式生效实施,也就是说,台湾的民众,从明年1月11日
起,只要持用中华民国有效护照,不必申请申根签证就可以前往欧洲35个国家或地
区经商旅游,半年累计不超过90天,这被视为是马英九总统的重大外交成就。 欧
盟公报的说明指出,因为台湾达到适用免签的标准,欧盟并认为台湾不会构成任何
非法移民的风险以及对欧盟公共安全的威胁,因此同意把台湾由需要申请签证才能
入境的名单中删除,改列到适用免签待遇的名单内。

校园幽默

为人师表的情书


1.
地理老师写道:“你是东半球,我是西半球。我们在一起,便是整个地球了。”
对方回信:“如果这样的话,地球上那不只剩下我们这孤独的一对了吗?”
2
历史老师写道:“现实是今天,历史是昨天,我们相爱,昨天和今天便天然地接在一起了。”
对方回信:“只有昨天、今天而没有明天,我们活着还有什么意义呢?”
3
数学老师写道:“亲爱的,你是整数,我便是分数,我们都是有理数,该是天生的一对啊。”
对方回信:“亲爱的,如果结婚后我做出了无理的事,也还是有理的吧?”
4
哲学老师如此求婚:“芳芳,你是存在,我是意识,根据唯物论的原理,存在决定意识,我愿永远做你忠实的仆人。”
对方答复:“根据辩证法的原理,在一定条件下,意识对存在有反作用,一旦我们结了婚,你便成了主宰我的皇帝。”
5
语文老师写信更动人:“倩倩,你是夏夜的星,你是春天的云,你是潺潺的小溪,你是溪边柳枝上的百灵,你是轻盈的舞步,你是悦耳的歌声……”
倩倩回信说:“我的天啊,你唯独不爱我这个人。”
6
物理老师的情书写得更妙:“你是阴极,我是阳极,我们结合便能产生爱情的电!”
女友吓坏了:“请走开!我不敢靠近你,我怕触电身亡。”
7
生物老师的情书独具一格:“人是富有感情的高等动物。我大胆地向你求爱,你一定会接受我的爱,因为我们都是地球上最高等的动物。”
他收到这样的回信:“我劝你把求爱的信寄到动物园去!”

 

师生之间


1、区别
生物课上老师提问:青蛙和癞蛤蟆有什么区别?
张三回答:青蛙是保守派,坐井观天;而癞蛤蟆是革新派,想吃天鹅肉。
2、分担痛苦
老师问学生:怎么解释“与人分担痛苦,会使痛苦减半呢?”
小伦回答说:“如果我爸爸揍我,我就揍他的猫!”
3、长相
老师布置了一道题:请用四个字概括自己的长相。卷子收上来后,学生们的答案分几种:
批判主义派的答案有:偶尔正确、惨不忍睹、我恨苍天、我想来世等。
写实主义派的答安有:两栖动物、猩猩他哥、人猿盗版,返祖现象等。
现代派的有:鬼斧神工、问我老婆等。
而惟一的一份超现实主义派的答案是——竟然是人。
4、校长更黑
新生入学军训时接受校长的检阅。
“同学们好!”
“校长好!”
“同学们辛苦了!”
“为人民服务!”
“同学们晒黑了!”
新生们顿时语塞,不知如何回答。沉默片刻后,一男生大声回答:“校长更黑!”
5、句式转换
老师:“请把‘马儿跑了’这句话转换成疑问句。”
小伊万:“马儿会跑吗?”
老师:“正确!很好!现在把它转换成祈使句。”
小伊万:“驾!”
6、无题
室友眼睛近视,常占第一排座位,又苦于高数老师说话口沫飞溅,难以抵挡。一日她对我说:高数老师低头讲课,第一排桌子全湿了;高数老师抬头讲课,第二排桌子就全湿了。我当场晕倒。
7、政治犯
班主任张老师怒气冲冲地走进教室,厉声说道:“你们叫我语文张,我忍了;新来的政治老师范老师,你们为什么叫她政治犯(范)呢?”
8、宿舍别解
小雷带着一个来找他的高中同学参观大学宿舍,他指着路左边的宿舍楼群说:“这是女生宿舍区,叫织女星系。”指着路右边的宿舍楼群说:“那是男生宿舍区,叫牛郎星系。”又指着脚下的路说:“这条路叫银河路。”
这时,主管学生宿舍的女干部面无表情地经过,小雷悄悄地说:“这位是王母娘娘。”
9、挂钟
大学里有间教室,里面的挂钟有问题,只要被东西敲到就会愈走愈快,敲一次就快5分钟。
一天教授上课,发现同学们都趁他在黑板上写字的时候用橡皮丢挂钟,但教授却不声张,依旧按钟上下课。没过多久,期末考试到了,大伙都埋头考试,只见教授拿着黑板擦在那儿练习丢钟。
10、改变世界
地理老师质问廉尼:为什么没有完成世界地图的描绘作业?
廉尼低头回答:我怕我画的地图会改变世界。
11、求知欲
老师问道:”孩子们,你们想知道第一个人是怎样出现的吗?”
小伊万从后排站起来,回答道:”女士,其实我们更感兴趣的是世界上第三个人是怎以出来的。”
12、人身保险
讲授经济学的老师正讲到被保险人与受益人的关系问题,为了更形象一点儿,他举了个例子:“比如说我投了人身保险,有一天我不幸被车撞死了,你们师母就可以获得赔偿金。她就是受益人,那么我是什么人?”一个同学回答道:“死人。”
13、难不倒
一位教授对一名智力早熟的小男孩说:“你的生日是哪一天的?”
答:“4月8日”
教授说:“哪一年。”
答:“每一年。”
14、保险措施
化学实验刚发下来,同学们争看老师的评语。只听甲拿起乙的念起来:“当浓硫酸滴到皮肤上时,应先用布擦干,再用大量的水冲洗,再用布擦干,再喷上些香水,再涂上一层玉米油护肤膏。”
老师镜溃骸盎挂灰D茫茨Γ俊?
15、做笔记
为考英语四级,大家都赶紧拼命学英语,一些笔记都不得不在其他专业课上做。
某日,历史老师发现台下一生忙得不亦乐乎,心中诧异,遂走下讲台,悄悄到他身边查看。
该生忙了一阵,觉得气氛不对,猛抬头,见老师正笑嘻嘻地对他说:“你觉得你用英语做笔记比用汉语记得快?”
16、三品
考试结束后,三个同学在一起诉起苦来。
甲说:“我语文课考得不好,老师说我是废品。”
乙说:“我体育课跟不上,老师说我是次品。”
丙说:“我政治课不及格,老师说我是危险品。”
17、妙解
一次语文课上,老师向同学们解释“惊惶失措”、“不知所云”、“如释重负”、“一如既往”四个成语。
恰巧,某学生正在呼呼大睡。教授一拍桌子,该生顿时坐起来,拿起书便看,老师说:“这便是惊惶失措。”接着,老师让他回答问题,他站起来支支吾吾了半天。这时老师说:“这便是不知所云,请坐!”这位同学长长地舒了一口气坐了下来。老师又说:“这便是如释重负。”等老师走上讲台,那同学又趴下睡觉。老师猛一转身,指着他说:“这便是一如既往。”
18、家庭作业
下课后,老师对伊万说:“让你爷爷来学校一趟。”伊万问老师:“老师,不需要叫我爸爸来吗?”
老师:“不,伊万,叫你爷爷来就可以了。我要告诉他,他儿子在你的家庭作业里做错了一些题。”
19、数到一百再说
上课了。老师背靠火炉站着,对学生们说:“说话前要三思,起码数到五十下,重要的事情要数到一百下。”
学生们争先恐后数起来,最后不约而同地爆发出“九十八、九十九、一百。老师,您的衣服着火了。”
20、鲜花怒放
老师问周媛:“蜜蜂给花园增加了生气是什么意思?”
周媛答:“蜜蜂偷花,花儿生气呗!”
大家听了哄堂大笑。周媛辩驳道:“要是鲜花不生气,哪来的‘鲜花怒放’呢?”

中国高铁偏爱英文操作手册? Chinese train driver manual –in English?

China’s railway ministry boasts that the country’s rapidly multiplying, state-of-the-art high speed trains are now completely homegrown, having been created by armies of Chinese engineers.

中国铁道部夸口说,中国各地迅速涌现的、工艺一流的高铁列车,如今完全是国产的,由大批中国工程师设计建造。

But, it now seems the engineers who have come up with all this authentic intellectual property are even smarter than the ministry would have us believe. After designing and building the new high-speed trains proliferating across the country they apparently decided to write the instruction manuals for train drivers in English, instead of their native Chinese.

然而,目前看来,创造出这项正版知识产权的工程师们的聪颖程度,甚至超出了铁道部试图让我们相信的水平。在设计并建造了眼下正覆盖全国各地的新型高铁列车之后,他们似乎决定用英语——而非中文——编写供列车司机使用的操作手册。

This little fact was revealed in a glowing piece of propaganda published by the Chinese Communist Party that profiled “China’s Number 1 high speed train driver” – a man called Li Dongxiao.

这件小事是从中共发表的一篇热情讴歌“中国高铁一号司机”李东晓事迹的宣传材料中发现的。

In the interview with state media, Li brags about making a bet with a German engineer who said there was no way Li could learn to drive the new “home-grown” Chinese high-speed trains in time for the first pre-Olympics trial of the Beijing to Tianjin express line in 2008.

在接受国有媒体采访时,李东晓大谈自己和一位德国工程师打赌的事情。那位德国工程师说,李东晓绝对不可能按时学会驾驶新型“国产”高速列车,完成2008年奥运会前京津城际高速铁路的首次试运行。

But Li said through tireless work and indomitable persistence he and his team were able to translate the English instruction manual into Chinese on their own and learnt to drive the new trains within just nine days.

但李东晓表示,经过昼夜奋战和不懈努力,他和他的团队在短短9天内,硬是把英文的操作手册翻译成了中文,并且学会了驾驶这种新型列车。

Li won the bet with the German engineer, whose involvement in the “home-grown” high speed train project is not explained.

李东晓打赌赢了那位德国工程师,而至于“国产”高速列车项目为什么会有德国工程师参与,相关报道中没有进行解释。

However, Li’s account does make one wonder why the Chinese engineers who came up with such advanced high-speed rail technology decided to write instruction manuals in perfect technical English for Chinese drivers, who only speak Chinese.

然而,李东晓的叙述让人不由生出这样的疑问:发明了如此先进的高速铁路技术的中国工程师,为什么要用纯技术英语编写操作手册,给只讲中文的中国司机看呢?

Another possible explanation is that in the rush to adapt and “digest” foreign rail technology from companies like Siemens, Alstom, Bombardier and Kawasaki somebody forgot to translate the instruction manuals before they re-branded the trains “Chinese”.

另一个可能的解释是,由于急于吸收和“消化”西门子(Siemens)、阿尔斯通(Alstom)、庞巴迪(Bombardier)和日本川崎重工(Kawasaki Heavy Industries)等外国公司的铁路技术,有些人忘了在将列车冠以“中国品牌”之前,应该事先翻译好操作手册。

The railway ministry has said in a statement long ago that there is absolutely no doubt about the origins of its technology: “China Railways has already grasped the core technology for trains that operate at speeds over 200kmh…and China Railways has the autonomous intellectual property rights for such trains.”

中国铁道部很早以前就在一份声明中表示,中国高铁技术的来源是毋庸置疑的。“中国铁路已经掌握了时速200公里及以上动车组核心技术……中国铁路拥有这类动车组的自主知识产权。”

Now that the Chinese market is dominated by state-controlled domestic companies, the big international train producers are trying to catch a ride with them as the Chinese manufacturers start to peddle their technology overseas, with the help of cheap credit from Chinese banks. We’ll have to wait and see what language the training manual will be in for American, Australian, Brazilian, Thai and Saudi Arabian drivers when those countries start to buy “home-grown” Chinese trains.

中国市场被本国国有控股公司主导,中国制造商在本国银行廉价信贷的协助下,正开始把技术卖到海外,而大型跨国列车生产商则试图跟着它们搭个便车。当其它国家开始购买中国“国产”列车时,这些企业将为美国、澳大利亚、巴西、泰国和沙特等国的列车司机提供什么语言的培训材料呢?我们将拭目以待。

罗马尼亚“入申”凸显欧盟新老成员矛盾 Threat to stop Romania joining Schengen fuels tension

The European Union faced the prospect of escalating tensions between new and old members after Romania’s president accused France and Germany of “an act of discrimination” by blocking the coun- try’s entry into Europe’s border-free Schengen area.

罗马尼亚总统指责法、德两国阻止罗马尼亚加入申根区是“一种歧视行为”。欧盟(EU)新老成员国之间的紧张局势可能升级。

Traian Basescu told reporters on Wednesday that Romania had met all technical conditions for entry and argued that the introduction of conditions would breach European law and create “an unacceptable precedent”.

特拉扬•伯塞斯库(Traian Basescu)周三对记者表示,罗马尼亚已满足加入申根区的所有技术条件。他认为,增加条件将违反欧洲法律,并开创“一个令人无法接受的先例”。

“We will not accept discrimination from anybody, even from the EU’s most powerful states,” he said.

“我们不会接受任何人的歧视,即使是欧盟最具权势的国家,”他表示。

The anger comes after the interior ministers of Germany and France wrote to EU officials saying that slow progress on judicial reforms, fighting corruption and “alarming organised crime” made them unable to back Romania and Bulgaria’s Schengen membership, which was scheduled to be voted on in March.

此前,德国和法国的内务部长致函欧盟官员,称由于罗马尼亚在司法改革、反腐败和“警告有组织的犯罪”方面进展缓慢,他们无法支持该国和保加利亚成为申根成员国。有关两国入申的投票定于明年3月举行。

According to EU officials, the Franco-German letter came after Mr Basescu had made a personal appeal for Schengen membership to fellow European heads of government at last week’s summit in Brussels, although the issue was not on the agenda.

欧盟官员透露,法德联名致函之前,伯塞斯库上周在布鲁塞尔举行的峰会上,就入申问题以个人名义向其它欧洲政府首脑发出了呼吁,尽管该问题并不在议程之上。

The letter added to tensions between western and eastern EU members. France and Germany last week sided with Britain to freeze the EU budget for the next decade, a move that would have disproportionate effect on new member states in the east, who are heavy recipients of EU development funds.

这封信加剧了欧盟东西方成员国间的紧张局势。法国和德国上周支持英国的建议,冻结欧盟未来十年的预算。对于大量接纳欧盟发展资金的东欧新成员国而言,预算冻结带来的影响会大大超过此举对其它国家的影响。

In addition, it comes as Hungary is set to become only the third former communist country to assume the EU’s six-month rotating presidency in January. Hungarian officials have said that Schengen membership for Bulgaria and Romania is one of the priorities for their presidency.

此外,明年1月起,匈牙利将担任为期6个月的欧盟轮值主席国一职——前社会主义国家担任欧盟轮值主席国,这才是第三个。匈牙利官员已表示,保加利亚和罗马尼亚加入申根区,将成为其任职期间的要务之一。

An EU official said Hungary was angered by the timing of the move by France and Germany, but a Hungarian diplomat said they would continue to push for Bulgarian and Romanian inclusion.

一位欧盟官员表示,匈牙利对法国和德国的行动时机感到恼火,但一位匈牙利外交官员表示,他们将继续争取保加利亚和罗马尼亚入申。

韩国军演让半岛紧张局势升级 Two  Koreas  raise  the  rhetoric

North Korea has warned of a “holy war” against the South, including use of nuclear weapons, while President Lee Myung-bak, of South Korea vowed a “merciless counterattack” if its territory were assaulted again.

朝鲜警告可能会对韩国发动“圣战”,包括动用核武器,而韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)则誓言,一旦领土再次遭袭,韩国将进行“无情的反击”。

Both sides were raising the rhetoric on the day South Korea launched big land and sea military exercises, prompting North Kor­ea to denounce its richer neighbour as a warmonger.

昨日,韩国举行大规模陆空联合演习,致使朝鲜指责其为“战争贩子”,两国的措辞都在升级。

The drills, the third this week, were seen as part of efforts by Mr Lee, who visited a frontline military unit on Thursday, to present a stronger image following heavy public criticism of the South Korean military’s response to North Korea’s deadly attack on Yeonpyeong island last month.

这已是韩国本周第三次军演,李明博周四到前线进行了视察。在上月朝鲜炮击延坪岛、导致4人丧生后,韩国军方的反应遭到公众的严厉批评。人们普遍认为,李明博正试图展现出一个更加强硬的形象,本周的军演就是其努力的一部分。

The defence minister was subsequently forced to resign after the attack, in which four people died.

在朝鲜炮击延坪岛事件导致死人丧生后,韩国国防部长被迫辞职。

Mr Lee said the military should launch a “merciless counterattack” if the North carried out further assaults like the Yeonpyeong incident, which caught South Koreans off-guard. He added that South Korea must remain vigilant, saying: “We had believed patience would ensure peace on this land, but that was not the case.”

李明博表示,如果朝鲜再次发动延坪岛事件那样的袭击,韩国军队应予以“无情的反击”。他还说,韩国必须保持警惕:“我们曾经相信,耐心能确保朝鲜半岛的和平,但事实并非如此。”

But some analysts fear the exercises might provoke fresh violence from the North, which has condemned Seoul’s actions. Pyongyang’s official KCNA news agency said that the South’s claims that the drills were routine were an attempt to “hide the provocative nature toward the North of the war exercises”.

但一些分析人士担心,军演可能会激起朝鲜新的暴力手段——朝鲜已对韩国的行动表示了谴责。朝鲜官方通讯社朝中社(KCNA)表示,韩国称这些军演只是常规演习,这是试图“掩盖其战争演习对朝鲜的挑衅性”。

Rodong Sinmun, the North’s official newspaper, accused the US of conspiring with Seoul and Tokyo to spark war.

朝鲜官方报纸《劳动新闻》(Rodong Sinmun)指责美国与韩日两国密谋发动战争。

“The Korean peninsula has turned sharply unstable on the brink of war due to scheming by the US to militarily stifle the North,” the commentary said.

评论称:“由于美国图谋对朝鲜进行军事压制,朝鲜半岛突然陷入濒临战争的不稳定状态。”

But Pyongyang stopped short of threatening retaliation, as China urged caution on both sides.

但在中国敦促朝韩双方都要保持谨慎后,朝鲜已不再威胁要实施报复。

Analysts said the North might not strike back immediately, as it was waiting to see the outcome of diplomatic efforts, with China calling for six-party talks and urging Pyongyang to allow international inspectors to return to its main nuclear facilities. But they warned that long-term risks remained, given the unpredictable nature of the reclusive regime.

分析人士表示,朝鲜可能不会立即发动反击,因为它正在等候外交努力的结果——中国呼吁举行六方会谈,并敦促朝鲜允许国际检查团回去检查其主要核设施。但分析人士警告,鉴于朝鲜政权反复无常的特性,长期风险依然存在。

“The series of drills would certainly anger North Korea’s military, although it is unlikely to retaliate for the time being as the regime tries to resume talks with the US,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute in Seoul. “If the US continues to show a cool response to the North’s offer and if Pyongyang judges that the possibility of bilateral talks is low, it may return to military options with strong provocations against the South to force Washington and Seoul to change their policies toward the North.”

韩国世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)研究员郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)表示:“一系列军演肯定会激怒朝鲜军方,不过由于朝鲜正试图恢复与美国对话,它暂时不太可能进行报复。如果美国对朝鲜的示好继续反应冷淡,且朝鲜认定举行双边会谈的可能性不高,朝鲜就可能重新诉诸军事手段,对韩国进行严重挑衅,以迫使美国和韩国改变其对朝政策。”

通用电气加速纽约河道污染治理 GE steps up pace in New York toxic river clean-up

General Electric will set aside a further $500m to pay for the clean-up of toxic chemicals from the bottom of the Hudson River as part of efforts to end one of the longest-running environmental battles in the US.

通用电气(GE)将再拨出5亿美元,用于清理哈德逊河底部的有毒化学品,旨在终结美国历时最长的一次环保斗争。

GE has finally agreed to US Environmental Protection Agency demands to complete an extensive dredging programme to restore the New York river.

GE最终同意了美国环保局(EPA)的要求,即完成一项大规模疏浚计划,从而使纽约的这条河流恢复原样。

A 200-mile stretch of waterway was contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls from GE’s capacitor manufacturing plants, which began using the toxins in the 1940s. The chemicals were banned in 1977 after being linked to cancer, and the EPA closed the river to fishing. GE battled with regulators for decades over the scale and shape of the clean-up.

GE电容生产厂从20世纪40年代开始使用多氯联苯(PCB),排放的这种有毒化学品污染了长达200英里的河道。1977年,这种化学品被发现可能致癌,并因此禁用,EPA也禁止在这条河上捕鱼。就清污的规模和方式,GE与监管机构进行了长达数十年的拉锯战。

In recent years the industrial group has sought to reinvent itself as a green company with its “Ecomagination” campaign, making the Hudson issue a particularly vexing legacy.

近年来,这家工业集团试图通过“绿色创想”(Ecomagination)行动,将自身重新打造为一家绿色企业。哈德逊河污染成了一个尤为棘手的历史遗留问题。

GE began work on the clean-up last year, but progress was hampered after PCBs were found at greater depth and in larger quantities than expected. GE has already spent $830m on the first phase, including $561m when it ran dredges 24 hours a day for several months.

GE去年开始进行清理工作,但由于发现的PCB位置比预期的更深、且总量比预期更多,清理工作受阻。在第一阶段的清理工作中,GE已经花费了8.3亿美元,其中包括数月中每天24小时进行疏浚所花费的5.61亿美元。

Last week the EPA issued stronger guidelines to GE for the next phase of the clean-up, capping months of talks. The EPA estimates the project could take six years and require the removal of billions of cubic yards of contaminated soil.

经过数月磋商之后,EPA上周对GE下一阶段的清理工作发布了更为严格的指导方针。EPA估计整个工程将耗时6年,需要移除数十亿立方码的受污染土壤。

David King, director of the EPA’s Hudson River field office, said: “We both want to get this done as soon as possible. They are stepping up to the plate.”

EPA哈德逊河区域办公室主任大卫•金(David King)表示:“我们都希望尽快完成这项工作。他们已经加快了速度。”

Jeff Immelt, GE chief executive, said recently the fourth-quarter charge would take the Hudson issue “off the table when looking at the future financially”.

GE首席执行官杰夫•伊梅尔特(Jeff Immelt)最近表示,“考虑未来财务安排的时候”,第四季度的支出会让哈德逊河问题在未来讨论财务问题时“渐渐淡出”。

中国悄悄公布航母计划 China reveals aircraft carrier plans

China has launched an ambitious plan to build an aircraft carrier, the country has revealed for the first time, in a move that will heighten international scrutiny of the rapid expansion of its naval power.

中国已经启动了建造航空母舰的宏伟计划。中国首度公布的这一消息,将促使国际社会更加密切地关注中国海军力量的迅速扩张。

The decision, which has far-reaching implications for China’s defence strategy and diplomatic relations, was disclosed in a single sentence buried at the end of a lengthy book published by a government agency earlier this year.

这项决定对中国的国防战略和外交关系具有深远意义。它是今年早些时候在一家政府机构发表的长篇报告中披露的,全部内容只有一句话,且深藏在报告的结尾。

“In 2009, China put forward a plan and a programme for building an aircraft carrier,” says China’s Ocean Development Report (2010), a book published in May by the State Oceanic Administration, a body under the Ministry of Land and Resources.

“2009年,中国提出了建造航空母舰的构想和计划,”中国国土资源部国家海洋局今年5月发布的《中国海洋发展报告2010》表示。

“This shows that China has started entering a new historic era of comprehensively building itself into a great naval power. [This] is China’s historic task for the entire 21st century,” the report said.

报告说,这表明中国已开始进入全面建设海洋强国的新历史时期,是中国在整个21世纪的历史任务。

The effort to add carrier power to the increasingly potent People’s Liberation Army Navy, and the fact that official word slipped out in an obscure publication, will fuel concerns about China’s military intentions.

中国为其日益强大的海军添置航母的努力,以及在一份默默无闻的出版物上悄悄透露官方消息的做法,将加深外界对中国军事意图的顾虑。

The carrier programme confirmation was first reported by Asahi Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper, just ahead of Tokyo’s announcement of a generational refocusing of its military forces to defend southern islands, seen as threatened by Chinese naval power.

中国证实航母计划的消息,最早见于日本的《朝日新闻》(Asahi Shimbun)。日本政府紧接着宣布对国防政策进行世代性调整,把重点放在保卫被认为受到中国海军力量威胁的南方岛屿上。

Japan’s new policy highlighted China’s rapid defence build-up and ability to project force far offshore, saying the “insufficient transparency of China’s military affairs and security guarantees” was becoming an international “cause for concern”.

日本新的防卫政策强调了中国迅速增长的国防力量和在远海投射武力的能力,声称“中国在军事和安全保障方面不够透明”,已经成为国际社会的“关切的原因”。

Beijing has previously offered hints of its carrier plans; a senior Chinese defence official told the Financial Times two years ago that the world should not be surprised if China built an aircraft carrier. In March last year, Liang Guanglie, China’s minister of defence, told his Japanese counterpart that China would not remain forever the only major power without an aircraft carrier.

中国以前就暗示过建造航母的计划。两年前,中国国防部一名高官向英国《金融时报》表示,如果中国建造航母,国际社会不应感到惊讶。去年3月,中国国防部长梁光烈向日本防务大臣表示,中国不会永远都是唯一没有航母的大国。

Defence experts have also spotted, from satellite imagery, the construction of runways at two military airports suitable for training pilots for carrier landings. The Varyag, a Soviet-era aircraft carrier hull that China bought from Ukraine in 1998, has been under repair for expected service as an exercise platform. However, official confirmation of the programme is still likely to cause a stir.

另外,一些国防专家从卫星图像上发现,中国有两个军事机场铺设了适于训练飞行员进行航母着陆的跑道。中国1998年从乌克兰购买的苏式航母瓦良格号(Varyag)正在进行修复,预期将作为演练之用。尽管如此,官方证实航母计划的消息还是有可能引起轰动。

“An aircraft carrier symbolises the ambition to move far beyond your own shores. It is a tool for power projection,” said an Asian defence attache in Beijing. “China’s navy is still a dwarf compared with the US, but this makes it official that they will be rivals.”

“航母象征着向远洋进发的雄心,是武力投射的一个工具,”一位驻北京的亚洲国防武官表示。“和美国相比,中国海军仍然相形见绌,但此举正式宣告双方将成为对手。”

Beijing’s defence ministry declined to comment, but the foreign ministry dismissed the Japanese concerns, saying China’s military was purely defensive and a “threat to nobody”.

中国国防部拒绝置评,但外交部驳斥了日本的担忧,表示中国奉行防御性国防政策,“不会对任何人构成威胁”。

“Individual countries have no right to pretend to represent international society while talking irresponsible nonsense about China’s development,” spokesman Jiang Yu said.

外交部发言人姜瑜表示:“个别国家无权以国际社会的代表自居,不负责任地对中国的发展说三道四。”

Revelation of the carrier decision comes just as China is trying to repair the diplomatic damage caused by aggressive rhetoric from defence officials.

航母计划披露之际,中国正试图修补因国防官员的激烈言辞而受损的外交形象。

Beijing has recently silenced several military officers who had raised hackles earlier this year with belligerent comments and has resumed military-to-military dialogue with the US ahead of official exchanges including a visit by Hu Jintao, China’s president, to Washington next month.

今年早些时候,中国一些军官相继发表好战言论,引起了外界的激烈反响。北京最近已经让这些军官闭口,并恢复了与美国的军事对话。双方还将举行一些官方交流活动,包括中国国家主席胡锦涛将于下月访美。

The US navy complained last year that its vessels had been harassed by Chinese ships in international waters. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, said earlier this year he had “gone from being curious about where China is headed to being concerned about it”.

美国海军去年抱怨其舰船在公海遭到中国船只骚扰。美国参谋长联席会议主席麦克•马伦(Mike Mullen)今年早些时候表示:“对于中国的发展方向,我已经从好奇变成了担忧。”

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

卖辣椒的智慧

卖辣椒的人经常碰到这样一个众所周知又非常经典的问题,那就是不断会有买主问:你这辣椒辣吗?不好回答。答辣吧,也许买辣椒的人是个不怕 辣的立 马走人;答不辣吧,也许买辣椒的人是个喜欢吃辣的,生意还是不成。当然解决的办法也众所周知并且非常经典的,那就是把辣椒分成两堆,吃辣的各选所需,这是 书上说的。

这一天没事,就站在这个卖辣椒妇女的三轮车旁,看她是怎样解决这个二律背反难题的。趁着眼前没有买主,我自作聪明地对她说;你把辣椒分成两堆吧,有人要辣的你就给他说这堆是;有人要不辣的你就给他说那堆是。

没想到卖辣椒的妇女却只是对我笑了笑,轻声说;用不着!

说 着就来了一个买东主,问的果然是那句老话:辣椒辣吗?卖辣椒的妇女很肯定地告诉他:颜色深的辣,颜色浅的不辣!买主信以为真,挑好辣椒付过钱,满意地走 了。也不知今天是怎么回事,大部分人都是买不辣的,不一会儿,颜色浅的辣椒就所剩无几了。我于是又说:把剩下的辣椒分成两堆吧?不然就不好卖了!

然而,卖辣椒的妇女仍是笑着摇摇头,说:用不着!

又有个买主来了,问的还是那句话:辣椒辣吗?卖辣椒的妇女看了一自己的辣椒,信口答道:长的辣,短的不辣!果然,买主就按照她的分类标准开始挑起来。这轮结果是,长辣椒很快告罄。

看着剩下的都是深颜色的短辣椒,我没有再说话,心里想:这回看你还有什么说法?

没想到,当又一个买主问“辣椒辣吗”的时候,卖辣椒的妇女信心十足地回答:“硬皮的辣,软皮的不辣!”我暗暗佩服,可不是嘛,被太阳晒了半天,确实有很多辣椒因失水变得软绵绵了。

卖辣椒的妇女卖完辣椒,临走时对我说:你说的那个办法卖辣椒的人都不能知道,而我的办法只有我自己知道!

我忽然有所顿悟:生活中的智慧可以被写成书,但你却不能简单地照着书上写的智慧去生活,因为生活只是鲜活的。

控制吃回扣,靠人管人不管用

“控制吃回扣,靠人管人不管用;要从源头控制;要把大权化成小权控制;要用规则法律控制;要让人自己控制自己。”

    经营食堂应该是最简单的小生意,假设你是食堂的小老板,怎样才能有效防范食堂采购中的贪污问题?这可是一道考管理者的综合题,因为任何商品的标准都不如粮油青菜油盐酱醋鸡鸭鱼肉复杂;任何商品质量都不如每天需要变换口味的饭菜难以衡量;任何产品的价格都不如员工顿顿吃的东西敏感。不信你试试看,你能管好一个食堂吗?

    食堂管理难题

    有人可能说,如果我是食堂的老板,食堂采购就是我管理的重点。必要的话,可以采取如下措施:

    “我、我老婆或者我的亲信亲自去买。”

    可是这样一来你不就成个体户了吗?你的食堂公司还能做大吗?如果再有第二个、第三个食堂你怎么管?再说了,别以为亲信就不会骗你的,人是这个世界上最高级,也是最易变的动物。在缺乏监督和约束的环境中,你老婆都会藏私房钱。一个深圳制衣厂老板自嘲地跟我说:“自从我丈母娘管了食堂后,我小姨子和小舅子家里就从来不买菜了。”仅靠亲情管企业是不行的。

    “那我就派两个人去买,

    一个买,一个监督。”

    可是管过企业的都知道,在现金交易,无发票,并且质量和价钱每天变化的菜市场中,采购者抵御诱惑的能力很差,靠人盯人不可靠的,因为两个人可以很快达成攻守同盟。我见过有的公司甚至还用三个人去买菜,两人负责买,一个人复秤。结果怎么样?除了整天吵架之外,仍然不解决问题。更关键的是:千万别忘了,你经营的可不是什么暴利生意,一个人能干的活,三个人干,你的饭菜成本怎么能下来?

    “那我就采取轮班制,

    每次去买的两个人都不同。”

    一看你就是不懂食堂生意。千万别小看油盐酱醋青菜土豆鸡鸭鱼肉这些人人都知道的东西,它们的采购可是很专业的活,不信你问你老婆和妈妈。一个不懂菜市行情的人往往会让小贩骗秤和欺价。如果你为了防止贪污,买的东西质次价高,你的食堂生意还有竞争力吗?

    “那就采购的人固定,监督的人轮换。”

    可是一个不懂行的人怎么可以有效监督一个天天采购的人?他可以非常容易地同供应商表演完美的双簧,让监督的人成为聋子耳朵。不仅如此,犯罪心理学证明:监督越严厉,人的犯罪心理越强,监狱就是最好的证明。采购者每天被不同的人盯着,这对采购者实际上是双重人格侮辱,因为它的假设是:一你不仅会贪污;二你还会拉别人下水一起贪污。如果你被这样假设了,不贪污都对不起自己了!还谈什么发挥主观能动性,同小贩斗智斗勇买便宜的青菜茄子猪肉粉条?

    “那我就公开招标选总供应商。”

    这又是外行话。的确一些大餐馆或饭店对饮料烟酒和粮油等商品采购用总供应商独家采购制度。这是因为这些商品是标准产品,而青菜土豆鸡鸭鱼肉是非标准产品,质量和价钱每天都可能变,你怎么制订标书?谁能预测,8月猪肉上涨10%,9月山东黄瓜大丰收每斤只卖1角?因此,即使你有总供应商,还是要有人知道行情,因为这些青菜副食可是你食堂成本的大头。

    看到此,我估计很多人开始纳闷:这么简单个食堂生意,管理竟然如此复杂?! 这就对了,因为你是外行。如果一个真正管过食堂,而且成功管理过食堂的人,这个问题对她(他)就是小菜一碟了。这就是管理永远是具体的道理——外行不能管内行。

    开源节流

    一次偶然的机会,我碰到一位真正管理过食堂的老板,他的一席话让我茅塞顿开。

    我问他:“你的食堂采购由谁负责?”

    他说:“看买什么。需要每天买的青菜副食由大师傅负责,不需要天天买的粮油酱味招标采购,清洁用品等杂项由食堂经理买,炉灶器具锅碗瓢盆等固定资产(他的定义)由我亲自负责。”

    我又问:“大师傅去买菜有人监督吗?”

    “没有,我们只监督买回来的东西是不是短斤少两,因为很多东西是大师傅去市场订,供应商给送;送来的东西由厨房小工复秤记录。”他说。

    “不怕大师傅吃回扣吗?”我问。

    他说:“不怕。这个食堂是物业公司的,每人每天只是7元钱的伙食定额,扣掉主食和其他费用,每人每天副食只有4元钱。大师傅要用4元钱,买回能做四菜一汤的材料已很不容易了,哪里还有吃回扣的缝儿?另外,我自己偶尔也逛菜市场,市价比较清楚。再说,他能不能吃回扣,根本不是我管理的重点。”

    嘿。我很奇怪,问:“为什么?”

    小老板说:“我做生意先讲开源,后讲节流。因为一个生意得先有营业额,后才能有利润。我的重点是如何让吃饭的人满意,他们满意了,他们公司才能给我续约。他们满意了,我同公司谈伙食承包费、水电费和客人招待费才容易。”

    “怎么才能让他们满意?”我继续问。

    “ 这些保安都是从农村来的小伙子,肚量大得很,要让他们满意首先得保证他们能吃饱。可是每人每天就这么点伙食费,怎么才能让他们吃饱?因此,必须精打细算。比如,不要买刚下来的新鲜菜、不要买质量好的菜,尽量买过季菜、处理菜;不要买活鱼,要买死鱼;不要买里脊肉,要买肥肉……买这些东西可不是一般人能买的,必须是做菜的大师傅。大师傅在菜摊看到便宜菜和肉时,脑袋里马上就能想像做什么菜,因此在讨价还价时,他可以立即作决定。否则买菜一个人,做菜一个人,天天得吵架。做餐馆的人哪个不知道,凡是有人投诉饭菜质量,大师傅一定会先找原材料质量不好的原因。所以我必须把这个权力交给大师傅,让他能像我妈妈那辈子的人一样,会过穷日子,用一点点的钱变着法让一家人尽可能吃好。可是大师傅不是我妈,得鼓励他才行。怎么鼓励?食堂就餐者每个月对饭菜质量有评分,评分越高,大师傅奖金就越高。”

    目标管理:将军赶路,不追小兔

    我靠在沙发上的身子不由自主地直了起来,这个不修边幅的小老板开始让我肃然起敬。我继续请教:“可是我的经验是:吃饭的人个个都是陈世美,新厨师做的饭菜,刚开始都挺好吃,可是吃着吃着就烦了,评分也就低了。”

    “ 那你要分析,就餐者对什么最在意?这个食堂吃饭的小伙子们对饭菜不满意,主要是分量上。我刚接手这个食堂时是,他们半自助餐。可是你知道了,凡是吃自助餐的人,都是眼大肚子小;尽量多要,吃不了,不是硬撑,就是偷着倒。食堂员工怕后边的人不够,就尽量少给,结果总吵架。做食堂的人都知道,合餐一定比分餐省;可是分餐卫生,方便和时髦,所以一般公司食堂大都采用分餐。可是你得看你的食客是什么人?如果都是白领当然要分餐了,人得先吃饱后吃好。于是,我终于说服物业公司把分餐制改成合餐制。我的条件他们不能拒绝,八人一桌、四菜一汤、公筷分菜、凑齐再吃。结果满意度一下子上升10个百分点。

    “ 不仅如此,要想少花钱吃饱饭,只有一招——多吃饭少吃菜。我和大师傅在制定菜式时就想方设法,让中午和晚间每顿饭都必须有一个口味重,能下饭的菜。比如:梅菜扣肉、红烧鱼、腌菜炒大肠、麻婆豆腐等。做这些菜必须多放油、盐、酱油、味精、调料,所以原材料也就不用很新鲜的,要知道死鱼比活鱼价钱差一半。

    “你看这才是我抓的重点。这个公司换过3个食堂外包,我们是最满意的。现在他们总经理也经常在食堂吃饭了,这几个月物价高涨,他还主动问我需不需要加钱。”

    我目不转睛地看着他,心想:管理者都懂目标管理,可是几个目标一打架,往往就把大目标忘了——很多企业为了防止吃回扣,把员工的积极性也搞没了。这个小老板显然是个能将军赶路,不追小兔的高手。

    管理客户期望

    小老板见我真心请教,很有些自豪,继续说:“做餐饮的人其实不怕投诉,因为顾客投诉的都是一些能看得见的毛病,这些毛病都好改,难就难在食客的口味上。黄老师,你说得对,经常吃这几个菜谁都烦了。这就是为什么餐馆不断换厨师和推新菜式的原因。可是我们做食堂比较惨,因为大部分员工没选择,只能在这里吃。于是他们往往把对饭菜的厌烦通过别的事情爆发出来,比如饭菜质量问题和服务态度不好。其实,每个人都有家,妈妈也就能做那几样菜,你怎么不烦?在外面跑来跑去,回到家一吃,还是妈妈做的饭菜可口。所以我做食堂跟别人不一样,别人都希望职工每天都来食堂吃饭,因为多吃一天,做食堂的人就多赚一天钱。我承包任何公司食堂,我都要求公司同意食堂每星期关一天,因为我的员工也要休息。其实真正的原因是,我要让那些整天在食堂吃饭的员工自己做一做,或者到外面饭馆换换口味,对比一下价钱,这样他们就知道我的饭菜物有所值。我有100%把握,他们用7元钱在任何地方,包括自己做,绝不可能比在我这里吃得好。”

    我真的遇到高人了,不知哪个管理大师说的:“营销的第一准则是管理客户期望,而不是仅仅满足客户。”看来这个只有中学文化的小老板是个无师自通的大师。

    顺应人性和自然规律

    我继续问:“很多食堂采购都让老板费脑筋,往往用很多方法去控制。他们的担心也是有道理的,每个人的菜金再低,几百人加到一起,一年下来细水长流也是一笔不小的数。你为什么对你的大师傅那么信任,他是你的亲戚吗?”

    小老板笑了:“我在深圳经营四个食堂,我哪里来那么多能做饭的亲戚?其实菜市场采购吃回扣的事,都是那些公司自己办食堂的人做的事,为什么?管食堂的人不懂行,再加上管食堂的人往往是什么行政部经理,他们还有很多别的事要管,不可能在食堂上下那么多工夫。这些大公司以为靠什么鬼复杂的程序、制度和人盯人监督就能解决回扣问题,那是瞎掰。同样是菜心,有的是今天刚从地里摘的;有的是前天摘的,淋上水都是新鲜的,你怎么监督?一副猪下水上午卖30元钱,到晚间5点以后就10元钱了。如果采购的人想给你省钱,他会跟摊主说,有剩下来的下水给我送来;如果他照章办事或心情不顺,你就要花30元。再说了,逢年过节供应商送他一条烟,下来的新鲜水果送他一篓,这些事你能管得住吗?更关键的是你需要管吗?所以管不来的事,就不能硬管;要换着方式管才行。我能管的是每人4元钱的菜金,你给我做出让吃饭人满意的四菜一汤;如果在这个前提下,你还能吃到回扣,那就是你的本事;如果你真有这个本事,你小子就不需要当大师傅了,你可以当食堂老板了。为什么,因为你能管好大师傅。”

    大多数人只知道“治大国如烹小鲜”,而不知道这只是半句话,其实老子的意思是:管理者如果能顺应人性和自然规律,治大国就如炒一碟小菜那样容易了。这个小老板显然是知道老子整句话的人。

    让所有人都有点小权

    我又问:“粮油酱味不是也会影响饭菜质量嘛,为什么不归大师傅一起采购?”

    小老板狡黠地看了我一眼,说:“这就是我的特殊管理方法。别的公司采购都统一,我就要分散。我认为一个人过手的金额越少,贪污的可能性也越小,不信你看那些大贪污犯都是权力大的人。为什么?过手金额太大,掉一点小渣对人诱惑就很大。我不知道为什么有些公司非要把所有东西都集中起来采购?不仅如此,其实很多东西,买的人不如用的人懂行。

    “ 所以我把采购权分开。把需要采购的东西,首先按性质分。是标准产品不管金额大小,能招标的就不独立采购,比如:粮油招投标,盐味精酱油醋这些东西虽然金额小,也招投标。这叫什么?尽可能不诱人犯罪。现在买十瓶啤酒都可以讲价,所以要尽可能把漏洞堵上。不能投标采购的,比如副食青菜,不论金额多大,要直接交给最懂行的大师傅。为什么?除了上面说的原因,我现在经营四个食堂,最高的伙食标准是每人每天20元,最低是7元,它们用的原材料都不一样,放到一起采购只能顾此失彼。扫把抹布员工制服这些杂品由每个食堂经理购买。这样人人负责一部分,不仅能买到最合适的东西,每人买的品种少、金额小,稍稍吃点差价,就容易暴露出来,比如:别的食堂拖把5元钱,你买的拖把10元钱,你能不心虚吗?

    “ 人这种东西,别人怎么管都不如自己管自己。我这样做还有一个原因,谁都知道买东西是个好活,被人家敬烟敬酒还请吃饭,还有可能拿回扣。可是好事就要尽可能大家都有份,不能我整天烟熏火燎,你整天在外面风光,否则就会引起嫉妒和流言蜚语。如果把权力分散开来,大家都可以沾光还可以互相监督。当然我也不是为了分散而分散,该集中的我还是要集中,比如:我把粮油酱味的招标权下放到一个食堂经理那里,由他代替其他五间食堂采购。当然招标是轮流坐庄,下一年由另外一个食堂的经理负责。

    “ 别人的老板都说:员工都想少干活多拿钱。我看不是,我觉得员工是想少干不好的活,比如洗菜擦地这些脏活和累活。如果让洗菜的小工监督过秤,不给他们钱都高兴干。为什么?不仅能到厨房外面凉快凉快,喘口气抽口烟,掌握秤杆子还能受到别人尊敬呀。他不仅需要复秤,还要记录;短秤了,还要找大师傅对证。是人,哪个不想有点权力?所以我的原则就是让所有人都有点小权。

    “ 人有权无责、有权无法都容易乱来。洗菜小工抽别人几根烟是小事,上万斤米面的采购就容易出大事。所以我虽然把米面的招标权力交给食堂经理,但是招标必须按我制定的方法招。我们的招标结果事先任何人,包括评标者都不可能知道。因为我们做的是吃的生意,入嘴的东西不能只斗价钱低,否则斗来斗去,什么毒米就混进来了。因此我的招标方法永远是:第一,至少有四家无关联的供应商投标;第二,必须有一家新的供应商;第三,中标者是最接近四家平均价钱的投标者。任何人违反这个规则,就等于犯了法,你必须要交代清楚。”

    老板越说越兴奋,我也越来越觉得他很神。我问他:“你以前做什么的?你这些招都是自己想出来的?”

    他说:“我今年45了,年轻时当过兵,后来到政府机关开车。再后来到深圳打工,打来打去也打不出头,就自己做生意,没有大本钱,就在工厂区开了间小饭馆,结果就开成了食堂。我都是在过程中悟出来的,控制吃回扣,靠人管人不管用;要从源头控制;要把大权化成小权控制;要用规则法律控制;要让人自己控制自己。”

离任高管留下的三个信封

一位退休的CEO交给其继任者三个编了号的信封。“如果你遭遇了觉得自己无法解决的问题,在把问题提交给董事会之前,先打开这些信封。请相信我。”他告诉她。
其后不到4个月,公司的销售就出现了出乎预料地大幅减少。这位深感绝望的新CEO走向书桌,拿出了第一个信封,打开一看,上面写着:“责怪你的前任。”
所以,在与分析师通话时,她巧妙但强烈地指责自己的前任是销售额大幅降低的根源。华尔街和媒体对她的直言不讳做出了良好的反应。销售额重拾升势,问题就此解决。
大约一年以后,当公司一种重要的全球性产品不得不召回时,销售额再次下跌。这位CEO很快打开了第二个信封:“重组。”
重组很快完成,公司得以重振。
第二年,销售和利润双双增长。一项重大购并成功完成。公司股票价格扶摇直上。但是,一个不曾料到的个人危机威胁到了董事会对这位CEO的支持。她走进办公室,撕开了第三个信封:“准备三个信封吧。

印度与中国攀比经济增速“非常愚蠢” Sen warns that India’s growth must not come at price of food

The Indian fixation with surpassing China’s rate of economic growth is “very stupid” as a measure of the nation’s advancement, Amartya Sen, the world-renowned scholar and Nobel laureate for economics, has warned.

世界知名学者、诺贝尔经济学奖获得者阿玛蒂亚•森(Amartya Sen)警告称,印度执着于追求超过中国的经济增速、视其为衡量国家发展的标准,是一件“非常愚蠢”的事。

Prof Sen on Tuesday said that such comparisons between the two rising economies were dangerously misguided, and recommended that Indian leaders pay more attention to reducing chronic undernourishment among their country’s 1.2bn people than pursuing ever higher growth targets.

森周二表示,对这两个新兴经济体进行这样的比较,是一种危险的错误观念。他建议印度领导人更加注重减少12亿国民中长期营养不良的人数,而非追求越来越高的增长目标。

“I don’t think the issue of India and China and which one will have a higher rate of growth is interesting at all,” Prof Sen told students and young entrepreneurs in the Indian capital. “It’s not a serious question how [India’s] 8.5 per cent compares with [China’s] 9.5 per cent.”

“我对印度和中国竞赛的问题、以及哪个国家的经济增速会更高毫无兴趣,”森对新德里的学生和年轻的企业家们这样说道。“将(印度的)8.5%与(中国的)9.5%相比,并不是严肃的问题。”

Mr Sen was responding to an obsession with India’s climbing growth rate among New Delhi’s policy elite, a focus that often overlooks whether greater activity in parts of the country translates into improved human development indicators.

森的言论是针对印度政策精英对于印度不断提升的经济增速的一味专注,这种专注常常忽视了印度部分地区经济活力的提升能否转化为人类发展指标的改善。

Indians suffer some of the severest nutritional deficiencies in the world. Stunted development affects about half of the nation’s young children.

印度人的营养不良情况在世界上处于最严重之列。全国约一半儿童发育不良。

Manmohan Singh, the prime minister and close friend of Prof Sen’s, has forecast that India will reach 10 per cent economic growth in the medium term, placing it on par with China.

森的密友、印度总理曼莫汉•辛格(Manmohan Singh)预测,印度经济增速在中期内会达到10%,与中国不相上下。

Data released last month showed that India’s economy grew close to 9 per cent in the three months to the end of September. Business leaders and policymakers believe India could grow much faster but acknowledge that faster, unbalanced growth could pose dangers for the country.

上月发布的数据显示,今年第三季度印度经济增速接近9%。商界领袖和政策制定者认为,印度还能以快得多的速度增长,但他们承认,更快但不平衡的增长可能对该国构成威胁。

One Mumbai-based business leader describe India’s current growth as a “default rate” that could easily be exceeded if government intervention was lessened.

孟买一位商界领袖形容印度目前的增长为“缺省增长率”,一旦政府减少干预,便会轻松超标。

Prof Sen said higher growth was a “positive thing” in the context of social justice, poverty reduction and directing greater public revenues towards health and education.

森表示,在社会正义、脱贫、并将更多公共资金投入医疗和教育的大背景下,更高的经济增速就是一件“积极的事情”。

He proposed that greater attention be given to whether India was “falling behind” in feeding its population at a time of high food prices and what India could learn from China about social improvement. “Why is it that undernourishment is so hardy [in India]?” he asked.

他建议,印度应更加关注,在粮食价格高企的当下,自己在满足国民温饱方面是否“落后”,以及印度可以向中国借鉴哪些社会改良的经验。“为何(印度的)营养不良情况如此严重?”他问道。

中国呼吁朝鲜接受国际社会核查 China calls on N Korea to admit inspectors

China has made a rare appeal to North Korea to allow international inspections of its nuclear facilities amid signs that recent tension on the Korean peninsula might be easing.

中国向朝鲜发出了罕见的呼吁,希望朝鲜允许国际社会对其核设施进行核查。有迹象显示,朝鲜半岛近期的紧张局势可能正在缓和。

Beijing, Pyongyang’s only ally, has refused to criticise it publicly despite coming under intense pressure since a North Korean attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in November. “We support North Korea to make peaceful use of nuclear energy, but it should also respect inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency under the framework of the six-party talks,” said Jiang Yu, a foreign ministry spokeswoman.

尽管自朝鲜11月份攻击韩国延坪岛以来,中国承受着巨大的压力,但作为朝鲜唯一的盟友,中国一直拒绝在公开场合对其进行批评。中国外交部发言人姜瑜表示:“我们支持朝鲜和平利用核能,但它也应当尊重国际原子能机构(IAEA)在六方会谈框架内对其进行核查”。

She made the remarks after Bill Richardson, the US governor of New Mexico, had said after a private trip to North Korea that Pyong­yang had agreed to do just that. “The specifics are that they will allow IAEA personnel to go to [North Korea’s main nuclear site] Yongbyon to ensure that they are not processing highly enriched uranium, that they are proceeding with peaceful purposes,’’ Mr Richardson said while in transit at Beijing.

在姜瑜发表上述讲话前,美国新墨西哥州州长比尔•理查森(Bill Richardson)刚刚结束对朝鲜的私人访问。理查森说,平壤方面已同意接受国际原子能机构人员赴朝核查。他在过境北京时表示:“具体内容是,他们将允许国际原子能机构人员前往[朝鲜主要核基地]宁边,以确保他们并未提炼高浓缩铀,而是出于和平目的利用核能。”

Ms Jiang said China had “taken note” of Mr Richardson’s reported comments. “The situation remains very complicated and sensitive,” she added, reiterating China’s repeated calls for restraint from all sides and a resumption of the talks.

姜瑜表示,中国已“注意到”理查森在有关报道中的讲话。“当前朝鲜半岛局势仍然复杂敏感,”她补充说,并且重申了中国希望各方保持克制冷静及重启六方会谈的一再呼吁。

Urging North Korea to allow the return of IAEA inspectors, who were asked to leave in 2009, is a departure for Beijing, which previously refused to condemn the Yeonpyeong attack.

就中国而言,敦促朝鲜允许2009年被命令离朝的国际原子能机构核查人员返朝可谓一项反常之举。中国此前曾拒绝谴责朝鲜攻击延坪岛。

But South Korea remains unimpressed. “The appeal only came after Richardson had already conveyed the message,” said a Seoul diplomat. Mr Richardson also cautioned that North Korea had taken only a first step. “I believe that’s an important gesture on their part, but there still has to be a commitment eventually to denuclearise, to abide by the 2005 agreement that says they will terminate their nuclear weapons activities,” he said.

不过,中国此举并未打动韩国。首尔一位外交官表示:“中国是在理查森已经传达(朝鲜应允的)消息后才发出上述呼吁的。”理查森也告诫称,朝鲜方面只是迈出了第一步。他说:“我认为对他们来说,这一步是个重要姿态。但他们仍须致力于最终实现无核化,致力于遵守各方2005年达成的终止朝鲜核武活动的协议。”

And the White House on Tuesday rejected new multinational talks with North Korea on the nuclear issue, saying it needed to change its “belligerent” behaviour first, AP reports.

与此同时,据美联社(AP)报道,白宫方面周二拒绝就朝核问题展开新的多国会谈,称朝鲜必须首先改变其“好战”态度。

China also tried to defuse any risk of additional tension from a maritime clash between Chinese fishing boats and South Korean coastguard at the weekend. One fisherman drowned and eight were detained by South Korean authorities as the result of a standoff in South Korean waters.

中国还试图避免中韩海事冲突加剧紧张局势。上周末,中国渔船与韩国海洋警察厅巡逻船在韩国水域发生冲突,结果,一名中国渔民溺水身亡,八名中国渔民遭韩国当局拘押。

Ms Jiang said the incident had “no direct relation” to the situation on the peninsula.

姜瑜表示,这一事件与当前半岛局势“没有直接关系”。

中国就撞船事件向韩国索赔

中国周二对周末中国渔民和韩国海岸警卫队在黄海冲突、造成一名渔民死亡的事件表示“严重关切”,并要求赔偿。

上周六,一艘中国渔船冲撞一艘韩国巡逻舰后倾覆,中方一名船员死亡,另一名船员失踪。四名韩国海警在试图逮捕这些渔民时受伤。图为韩国巡逻舰。

这是韩国官员报告事件以来北京第一次正式置评。据韩国官员说,周六中国一艘渔船冲撞韩国一艘巡逻舰后倾覆,中方一名船员死亡,另一名船员失踪。
韩国官员说,包括这条船在内,当时约有50艘船只正在韩国海域非法捕鱼。韩国官员还指责部分其他渔民用金属管、铁锹和棍棒与韩国海警斗殴。
这起冲突之前,9月份曾有一艘中国渔船与日本海上保安厅一艘船只在东海争议岛屿附近相撞,日本扣留中国这艘渔船及其船员,引发两国间激烈的外交争端。
中国官方媒体曾低调处理周六中韩冲突,目的似乎是避免在朝鲜上个月炮袭韩国一处岛屿、引发地区紧张之后,让紧张局势进一步升级。
但中国于周二打破沉默,而此前朝鲜刚刚宣布它不会报复韩国周一的一次火炮演练,并将允许联合国调查人员调查其核设施。
外交部发言人姜瑜在北京的一次例行记者会上说:“中方对这一事件表示严重关切。”
她说,中方已向韩方“提出严正交涉”,要求韩方全力搜救失踪渔民,严惩肇事者,赔偿中方人员和财产损失,并杜绝此类事件再次发生。
她也提到,韩方在事发后立即派出救助船和直升机赶往现场,且目前仍在搜救失踪渔民。
但其措辞强硬的表态有可能使韩国和其他邻国更加担心,中国是在蓄意派遣渔船前往外国或争议海域,以帮助满足国内的要求。
据韩国海洋警察说,每年都有300多艘中国渔船在韩国海域非法捕鱼而被扣留。
2008年,韩国海警与正在韩国海域捕鱼的中国渔民冲突,一名海警死亡,另六人受伤。
过去一年,中国还反复申明对几乎全部南中国海的领土主张,引起多个对南海有部分领土主张的东南亚国家的警觉。

China expressed 'grave concern' and demanded compensation Tuesday over a weekend clash between Chinese fishermen and South Korean coast guards in the Yellow Sea which resulted in the death of one of the fishermen.
It was Beijing's first official comment since South Korean officials reported that a Chinese fishing boat had capsized Saturday after ramming a South Korean patrol ship, leaving one Chinese crew member dead and another missing.
The Chinese boat was among about 50 that were fishing illegally in South Korean waters, according to South Korean officials, who also accused some of the other fishermen of fighting the coast guards with metal pipes, shovels and clubs.
The clash follows a fierce diplomatic dispute between Japan and China in September that was triggered by Japan's detention of a Chinese fishing boat and its crew following a collision with a Japanese coast-guard vessel near disputed islands in the East China Sea.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal website, WSJ.com.)
Chinese state media had played down Saturday's incident in an apparent effort not to escalate tensions in a region that has been on edge since a North Korean artillery raid on a South Korean island last month.
But China broke its silence Tuesday after North Korea announced that it would not retaliate against a South Korean artillery test Monday and would allow United Nations inspectors to examine its nuclear sites.
'The Chinese side expresses its grave concern about the incident,' Jiang Yu, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, told a regular news briefing in Beijing.
She said China had 'made solemn representations' to South Korea, and called on it to rescue the missing fishermen, punish the perpetrators, offer compensation for the loss of life and property, and ensure that such incidents do not happen again.
She did note that South Korea had immediately deployed rescue ships and helicopters to the scene, and that they were still searching for the missing fisherman.
However, her strongly worded statement could exacerbate concern in South Korea and among other neighbors that China is deliberately sending its fishing boats into foreign or disputed waters to help meet domestic demand.
More than 300 Chinese fishing boats are captured for fishing illegally in South Korean waters every year, according to South Korea's coast guard.
In 2008, one South Korean coast guard officer was killed and six others injured in a scuffle with Chinese fishermen fishing in South Korean waters.
Over the last year, China has also been reasserting its territorial claims to almost all of the South China Sea, alarming several Southeast Asian nations that claim parts of it.

中国国家电网伸向巴西 State Grid views Brazil as another smart

China’s State Grid, which on Tuesday announced a close to $1bn investment in Brazil, often refers to itself as the backbone of its homeland.

周二宣布向巴西投资近10亿美元的中国国家电网(State Grid),常常自称为国家骨干企业。

The state-owned group, which serves more than 1bn people in China and employs 1.5m, is so closely linked to the government it receives a public grading – almost always an “A” – by its state supervisor.

这家国有集团向中国逾10亿人口供电,员工总数达150万,与政府关系极为密切,政府监督部门对它的公共评级几乎永远是A。

Electricity was one of the last sectors to undergo structural reform as China moved away from a planned economy, and State Grid was born from that process in 2002. The reforms also created China Southern Power Grid and five state-owned generators.

在中国脱离计划经济的进程中,电力是最后几个进行结构性改革的领域之一,国家电网于2002年应运而生。此次改革还缔造了中国南方电网(China Southern Power Grid)及其它五家国有供电企业。

But State Grid is by far the most powerful. Headed by Liu Zhenya, a party member who has worked at the company for 40 years, State Grid has steadily consolidated its position and manoeuvred its way into near-total dominance of the country’s multi-billion-dollar smart grid plans.

但国家电网的实力要遥遥领先于其它几家。公司总经理刘振亚是一位共产党员,已经为公司效力了40年。在他的带领下,国家电网稳步巩固了自己的地位,并通过不懈努力,几乎完全主宰了中国数百亿美元规模的智能电网计划。

Named the world’s eighth-largest company by revenues by this year’s Fortune Global 500 list, State Grid had total assets in 2009 of $293.2bn. Profits, however, were a mere 4.52bn yuan ($678m). China’s electricity is plagued by a simple problem of geography – the country’s energy resources are far away from the cities that need them – and the goal of the smart grid is to help solve that.

按收入计算,国家电网在今年的《财富》全球500强企业中排名第八。2009年,公司总资产达2932亿美元,但利润仅有45.2亿元人民币(合6.78亿美元)。中国的电力供应一直受制于一个简单的地理问题——需要能源的城市与供应源间的距离很遥远——而智能电网就是为了解决这一问题。

“Speeding up the building of a strong and smart grid is good for the basic transformation of China’s power development,” Mr Liu said. A better, more efficient grid is key to achieving the environmental goals of the next five-year plan, he said, promising that all areas of China would have basic grid connections by 2012.

刘振亚表示,加快建设一个强大的智能电网,有利于中国电力发展的根本性转变。他说,更好、更有效的电网是实现下一个五年计划环境目标的关键。他承诺,到2012年,中国所有地区都将实现基本联网。

State Grid has said it will spend Rmb1,700bn on grid construction in the next five years and complete the smart grid by 2015. That project will make it the world’s largest consumer of copper, and therefore a key driver of copper prices.

国家电网表示,未来五年将投资1.7万亿元进行电网建设,到2015年建成智能电网。该项目将使国家电网成为全球最大的铜消耗者,由此成为铜价的关键驱动因素。

The power lines that State Grid is building will draw energy from remote corners of the country, for example channelling Tibetan hydropower into urban areas, and also reach beyond China’s borders.

国家电网正在铺设的输电线,将从中国边远地区输电——例如将西藏的水电引入城市地区——甚至还将跨越边界。

A Russia-China transmission line has been under discussions for years, and the company has signed energy co-operation agreements with Mongolia and Kazakhstan.

有关建设一条俄中输电线的讨论已进行了数年。此外,国家电网已经与蒙古和哈萨克斯坦签署了能源合作协议。

The Brazil deal is a different type of venture, however. Rather than securing energy for Chinese cities, the deal is aimed at raising the company’s strategic international presence and securing a profit. “With constant breakthroughs, the company has upgraded Chinese enterprises’ global influence in the field of energy,” according to the company website.

不过,与巴西的协议则是另一种投资方式。此项协议的目的并非为中国城市获取能源供应,而是提升国家电网的国际战略地位及获利。该公司在网站上写道:“国家电网公司……不断取得突破,提升了中国企业在国际能源电力领域的影响力。”

State Grid first went abroad in 2007, when it won an auction as part of a consortium to operate the national grid in the Philippines. More recent overseas efforts have been mixed: the company failed to receive Chinese government approval for a Chilean copper investment this year.

国家电网于2007年第一次走出国门。当时它加入一个财团,赢得了在菲律宾经营全国电网的竞标。该公司后来的海外行动则成败参半:今年,一项投资智利铜矿的计划未能获得中国政府批准。

“The Chinese are becoming more aggressive in making overseas acquisitions and in the future they will be major players in the international power sector,” says Brett King, a partner at Paul, Hastings, Janofsky and Walker, which specialises in power deals.

专门从事电力交易的普衡律师事务所(Paul, Hastings, Janofsky & Walker)合伙人布雷特·金(Brett King)表示:“中国在海外收购方面正变得愈发积极,他们今后将成为国际电力领域的主要参与者。”

The Brazilian power sector has not traditionally been a money-spinner for foreign power companies, but for State Grid the returns in Brazil probably look much better than at home, where it barely made a profit last year.

外国电力公司传统上很难在巴西盈利。但对国家电网而言,巴西的回报率可能看起来要比国内好得多——去年,国家电网在中国本土几乎没有盈利。

扎克伯格的中国“假期” Zuckerberg’s Chinese “holiday”

“Mark Zuckerberg” and “vacation” aren’t phrases that most people would normally associate.

大多数人通常不会把Facebook创始人马克•扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)和“休假”这个词联系在一起。

The Facebook founder is known for working long hours; a two-month “lockdown” over the summer kept developers in the office for extended periods while new products – such as Mail – were created.

扎克伯格素以长时间加班著称;今年夏季开发新产品(如Mail)时,开发人员有两个月时间在办公室里“闭关”。

So it shouldn’t be surprising that when Mr Zuckerberg takes holiday to China, it isn’t all temple visits and cocktails.

因此,扎克伯格在中国度假时并不只是游览庙宇、出席酒会,也不应让人感到惊讶。

Visiting Beijing with his girlfriend this weekend, Zuck was spotted in the offices of Baidu, China’s largest search engine. He had lunch with Robin Li, Baidu’s chief executive and one of China’s wealthiest men, and toured around the search engine’s offices.

上周末有人发现,携女友到访北京的扎克伯格现身百度公司(Baidu),百度是中国最大的搜索引擎。他与中国首富之一、百度CEO李彦宏(Robin Li)共进午餐,还参观了百度办公室。

A Baidu spokesperson confirmed the visit, joking on Twitter that rumours the company was buying Facebook were “greatly exaggerated”.

百度一位发言人证实了扎克伯格来访,还在Twitter上开玩笑说,百度收购Facebook的传闻“太夸张了”。

“Robin and Mark have known each other for a while,” he said. “Mark’s interest in China is well known.”

他表示:“李彦宏和马克认识已经有一段时间了。大家也都知道,马克对中国很感兴趣。”

Avid Facebook watchers will know that Mr Zuckerberg has been learning Mandarin ahead of the trip. His tutor was shown on his recent Oprah appearance and he asked his Facebook friends about the best places to visit.

密切关注Facebook的人都知道,扎克伯格在赴中国旅行前就一直在学习普通话。近期做客奥普拉(Oprah)脱口秀节目时,他的普通话老师也在场,他还向Facebook上的好友询问哪些地方最值得游览。

Even though his girlfriend since Harvard, Priscilla Chan, is Chinese, the region is of more than just personal interest to Mr Zuckerberg.

尽管他在哈佛认识的女朋友Priscilla Chan是中国人,但扎克伯格对中国的关注远非仅仅是个人兴趣。

This summer, he told an audience at the Cannes Lions advertising festival that China was a key target for Facebook’s future growth, alluding to “specific things” that the site could do there.

今年夏天,他在戛纳国际广告节(Cannes Lions advertising festival)上表示,中国是Facebook未来增长的一个关键目标,还提到了该网站在中国能做的一些“具体事情”。

Top of the list, surely, is lifting the current block on Facebook across China. That 1.3bn-person hole in the Facebook network was illustrated by the map released last week showing the blue lines connecting people around the world – leaving China almost entirely in the dark.

第一要务当然是解除Facebook目前在中国受到的屏蔽。上周发布的一幅Facebook社交关系图,形象地展示出一片13亿人的空白。这幅图用蓝线表示全球各地的人们之间的联系,而中国几乎全部是黑暗。

It’s almost impossible to know whether Mr Zuckerberg will meet with Chinese officials on this trip. There is a second-degree connection with Tencent, the local social networking giant, which bought a stake in Facebook’s Russian investor, DST, earlier this year. But Tencent could also have the most to lose if Facebook made great strides in China.

想要知道扎克伯格此行是否会面见中国官员几乎是不可能的。Facebook与中国本土社交网络企业腾讯(Tencent)之间存在一些关联,后者今年早些时候购买了Facebook俄罗斯投资方DST的股份。但如果Facebook大举进军中国,损失最大的恐怕也是腾讯。

So would some sort of relationship with Baidu be one of those “specific things” which might break Facebook through the great firewall? As Google has found, China is a notoriously difficult market for US internet companies to work in – and almost impossible without a local partnership.

与百度之间结成某种关系,是否属于可能帮助Facebook突破“防火长城”的“具体事情”之列?正如谷歌(Google)所认识到的那样,美国互联网企业在中国经营的难度极大——如果没有本土合作伙伴,可能性几乎为零。

A Facebook’s spokesperson would only confirm that he is there on holiday and declined to comment on “any speculation”.

Facebook的一位发言人只愿意证实扎克伯格正在中国度假,拒绝就“任何猜测”予以置评。

人民币国际化走上正轨 Yuan direction

So new is the trade in offshore Chinese currency bonds that it has yet to gain a proper name. For want of anything else, it is often dubbed the “dim sum” market, in culinary recognition of its Hong Kong home base.

新鲜出炉的离岸人民币债券市场,迄今还没有一个像样的名字。因此人们常常称它为“点心”债券市场,取自其所在的香港的饮茶习惯。

In spite of its infancy, interest in the market is growing quickly. Caterpillar, the US-based maker of earthmoving equipment, launched a Rmb1bn ($150m) bond issue last month, making it the second multinational to tap the market, following an August issue by McDonald’s, the fast-food chain.

尽管点心债券市场还是襁褓中的婴儿,但各方对它的兴趣正迅速增长。上个月,美国工程机械制造商卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)在香港发行了10亿元人民币(合1.5亿美元)债券,成为继连锁快餐企业麦当劳(McDonald’s)之后第二家利用人民币债券市场融资的跨国企业。麦当劳在今年8月发行了人民币债券。

What makes these bond issues important is that the offshore renminbi market is much more than just a new avenue for debt financing – it is one of the core components in a plan to internationalise the Chinese currency. The process will be a slow one, with more baby steps than giant leaps, and it is by no means assured that the renminbi – also known as the yuan – will forge a decisive international role. But it is one that could have a huge long-term impact on trade, the global financial system and even international politics.

这些债券发行之所以重要,是因为离岸人民币市场远不只是债券融资的一种新渠道——它还是人民币国际化进程的核心环节之一。这个进程将是缓慢的,更像婴儿学步(而不是大跨步),而且人民币究竟能不能扮演某种决定性的国际角色,还不好说。但该计划可能会对国际贸易、全球金融体系乃至国际政治产生巨大的长期冲击。

If the plan works, the renminbi could become the main currency for doing business in Asia, the world’s most economically dynamic region, and in the long run it could become a significant part of the reserves of the world’s central banks. Indeed, some Chinese officials have already called for the renminbi to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of main currencies.

如果计划成功,人民币可能会成为亚洲的主要交易货币,而亚洲是世界最具经济活力的地区。长远来看,人民币还可能成为世界各国央行外汇储备的重要组成部分。事实上,一些中国官员已经呼吁将人民币纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一篮子货币。

The timing is also full of portents. The renminbi is starting to go global just as the future of the euro is uncertain. Eventually the shift could have an impact on the ability of the US to borrow overseas in its own currency. In China, some have taken to calling their currency the hongbi, or “redback”, to rival America’s greenback – a moniker that gives a flavour of the geopolitical undercurrents.

时机的选择也意味深远。人民币开启国际化进程的时刻,正是欧元的未来开始变得不确定的时刻。这样的角色转换,最终可能对美国以本币在海外借款的能力形成冲击。中国已有人开始称人民币为红币(redback),与美国的绿币(greenback)相对应——这个绰号隐隐象征着相关的地缘政治暗流。

“We may be on the verge of a financial revolution of truly epic proportions,” says Qu Hongbin, China economist at HSBC, one of the banks pushing the renminbi to its corporate clients. “The world economy is, slowly but surely, moving from greenbacks to redbacks.”

“我们或许即将迎来规模真正空前的金融革命,”汇丰(HSBC)中国首席经济学家屈宏斌表示。“世界经济正从‘绿币’向‘红币’转移,速度缓慢,但趋势明确无疑。”汇丰是正在向企业客户推介人民币服务的银行之一。

In many ways, the surprise is how little the renminbi is currently used outside China’s borders. China is now the second-largest economy in the world, the largest exporter of manufactured goods and holder of the largest volume of foreign exchange reserves. Yet the amount of the currency held overseas is negligible – the result of China’s strict capital controls and restrictions on currency trade.

但从许多方面来看,人民币的境外使用极少,才是真正令人惊讶的事。中国已经是全球第二大经济体,第一大制造品出口国,外汇储备规模也位居首位。然而,海外持有的人民币数量几乎可以忽略不计,其原因是中国严格的资本管制,以及对外汇交易的限制。

“If aliens landed on earth today, they would look at the current global monetary system and think it is very weird and unreasonable,” Li Daokui, who sits on the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, told a forum in Beijing last month.

“如果外星人今天到访地球,他们会发现现行全球货币体系非常奇怪和不合理,”中国央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵上月在北京一个论坛上表示。

Yet the financial crisis has changed attitudes in Beijing and bolstered support for China to seek a greater international role for its currency. Officials argue that the crisis came about because the international monetary system allows the US to run unsustainable current account deficits. As a result, over the past year Beijing has put in place some of the conditions for the renminbi to go global.

然而,全球金融危机改变了北京方面的态度,中国推动人民币进一步国际化的计划也得到了更多支持。中国政府官员认为,之所以会发生危机,是因为当前的国际货币体系允许美国积累不可持续的经常账户赤字。因此,过去一年里,北京方面为人民币的国际化创造了一些条件。

The first step has been to encourage international trade to be conducted in renminbi. That process accelerated in June, when China expanded its year-old renminbi trade settlement scheme to every country in the world and to 20 Chinese provinces and municipalities, allowing imports and exports to be invoiced and settled in renminbi.

第一步是鼓励企业用人民币开展国际贸易。这个进程在6月得到提速,中国将试行了一年的跨境贸易人民币结算机制,扩展到世界所有国家和全国20个省市,允许进出口贸易以人民币开具发票和结算。

Even if the use of the currency is to be limited to trade, companies and banks still need to be able to hold and invest renminbi offshore – which started to become possible in some scale from July when the authorities allowed renminbi-denominated financial markets to spring to life in Hong Kong. A month later, a select group of investors, including foreign central banks, were given limited access to China’s onshore bond market. Malaysia is believed to have become the first central bank to hold mainland renminbi assets in its reserves.

虽然人民币的使用仅限于贸易,但企业与银行依然需要在海外持有人民币并用其投资的机会。自7月起,经政府允许,香港开始发展以人民币计价的金融产品市场,从而使这在一定程度上成为可能。一个月之后,包括外国央行在内的一批经过筛选的投资者,获准进入中国在岸债券市场。据信,马来西亚央行成为首家在外汇储备中持有人民币资产的外国央行。

The effect has been dramatic. The People’s Bank says trade settled in renminbi totalled Rmb340bn between June and November – from zero just a year and a half ago. The pace has stunned senior western bankers who know the region. Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong banks surged 45 per cent in October to Rmb217bn – another reflection of the use of the Chinese currency in trade.

此举的效果令人惊叹。中国央行称,今年6月至11月,以人民币结算的贸易总额达到3400亿元,而仅仅一年半前,这个数字还是零。这样的增长速度,令那些了解中国的西方资深银行家也感到惊愕。10月,香港银行的人民币存款激增45%,达到2170亿元,这从另一个侧面反映出人民币在贸易中得到大量使用。

F or Chinese companies, the attractions of settling cross-border trade in their own currency are clear. Avoiding the dollar allows them to cut transaction costs and minimise foreign exchange risks – a huge benefit in a world at risk of a global currency war.

对中国企业而言,用本币进行跨境贸易结算的吸引力显而易见。绕开美元让它们得以削减交易成本,并将外汇风险降至最低。在一个随时可能爆发全球汇率战争的世界里,这是一项巨大优势。

Sinochem, China’s biggest trading company, is one of the pioneers. The group’s offshore trading division in Singapore this year received renminbi as payment for sales of petrochemicals, rubber and fertiliser, after what it says were requests to do so from Chinese companies as well as units of Sinochem on the mainland. “This allows us to build a stronger bond with our customers,” says Song Song, finance manager at Sinochem International (Overseas), who expects the trend to continue.

中国贸易额最大的企业中化集团(Sinochem)就是先驱之一。该集团在新加坡的离岸贸易子公司今年在销售石化、橡胶、化肥等产品时接受人民币付款。该公司称,它是在中国企业和中化内地部门的请求下这么做的。“这让我们得以与客户建立更稳固的联系,”中化国际(新加坡)有限公司财务经理宋颂表示。他预计这种趋势还将继续下去。

Indeed, an increasing number of western multinationals – including McDonald’s from the US, Ikea and Nokia in the Nordic region and Germany’s Metro – are also experimenting with using the renminbi in trade deals. “For our corporate clients, US dollars and euros are no longer the de facto currencies of trade,” says Shivkumar Seerapu, Asia head of trade finance at Deutsche Bank.

的确,越来越多的西方跨国企业——包括美国的麦当劳、北欧的宜家(Ikea)、诺基亚(Nokia)以及德国的麦德龙(Metro)——也在尝试用人民币进行贸易结算。“对我们的企业客户而言,美元和欧元不再是国际贸易的事实货币,”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)贸易融资亚洲主管希夫库玛•西拉普(Shivkumar Seerapu)表示。

Deutsche, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are among banks rapidly building the infrastructure needed to process renminbi transactions across the world. Standard Chartered and its rival HSBC are meanwhile already well placed to capitalise on the internationalisation of the renminbi because they have strong positions in Hong Kong, the designated offshore centre for the Chinese currency. Makers of products “from garments to gas cylinders” have started using the renminbi, says Neil Daswani, head of transaction banking for North Asia at Standard Chartered.

德意志银行、花旗集团(Citigroup)以及摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)等银行都在迅速设置必需的基础设施,以便在全球范围内处理人民币交易。与此同时,渣打(Standard Chartered)及其竞争对手汇丰已经占据有利地位,能够获益于人民币的国际化进程,因为它们在指定的人民币离岸交易中心香港拥有稳固地位。渣打交易银行部门北亚区主管尼尔•达斯瓦尼(Neil Daswani)称,“从服装到气瓶”,各类产品的制造商都开始使用人民币。

Demand has been strongest from Hong Kong, he adds, but has also come from Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, the Middle East and the UK. According to economists and trade finance experts, the use of the renminbi in trade is likely to take off first in Asia and then between China and other developing countries.

他补充称,来自香港的需求最为强劲,但也有来自新加坡、马来西亚、韩国、日本、中东和英国的需求。据经济学家和贸易融资专家称,人民币在国际贸易中的使用,很可能首先在亚洲蓬勃发展起来,然后广泛扩展到中国与其他发展中国家的贸易。

Momentum is clearly gathering behind the renminbi internationalisation drive, yet it is still a highly unusual process and one that is not guaranteed success. In the past, market forces have driven the greater international role of a currency: but in the case of China, that development is being developed by bureaucratic plan. “The attempt to create an international and eventually fully convertible currency through a policy-driven process is unprecedented – nothing like this has ever been tried before, even partially,” says Paola Subacchi of the UK’s Chatham House think-tank in a recent paper. “Beijing is openly aware of the fact that there is no roadmap to guide this process.”

人民币国际化的势头显然正在增强。然而,这仍然是一个极不寻常的进程,能否成功还不一定。以往,推动一国货币国际化的是市场力量,但在中国,这是由政府计划推动的。“通过政策推动货币国际化,并最终实现完全自由兑换,这样的尝试是前所未有的——以前从来没有人这么试过,连不完全的尝试也没有,”英国智库查塔姆研究所(Chatham House)的保拉•苏巴基(Paola Subacchi)在最近的一篇论文中写道。“北京方面完全明白,这个过程并无可供依循的现成蓝图。”

What makes the push even more unusual is that Beijing still intends to retain a raft of capital controls, to insulate its economy and to prevent the currency from becoming fully convertible for the time being, because of the leadership’s fears about the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the impact of open capital flows on the country’s still underdeveloped financial system. As Ms Subacchi says, “past experience shows that convertibility and opening of the capital account have always preceded the international use of a currency, rather than the other way round”.

让该行动愈显不同寻常的是,中国政府仍然打算保留大量资本管制措施,以隔离本国经济,并使人民币暂时无法完全自由兑换,因为中国领导层担心外汇市场波动以及自由资金流可能对中国仍不健全的金融体系造成冲击。正如苏巴基所言:“过去的经验显示,总是自由兑换和资本账户开放在前,货币的国际化在后,而不是相反。”

Instead, China is trying to use Hong Kong as a laboratory, where it can encourage international companies and investors to hold and trade renminbi-denominated products. The dim sum bonds are one part of that plan.

中国的替代做法是把香港当作一个试验室,鼓励海外企业和投资者在香港持有并交易人民币计价的金融产品。点心债券就是这个计划的一部分。

Meanwhile, to boost the foreign availability of renminbi, Beijing has over the past two years signed currency swap agreements with central banks in eight countries – Argentina, Belarus, Hong Kong, Iceland, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea – totalling a little over Rmb800bn. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank, last month drew down Rmb10bn of its Rmb200bn swap line, opening a new way for commercial banks in the city to obtain renminbi for their corporate clients to use in trade deals. Hong Kong banks can also obtain renminbi via mainland banks and the local branch of Bank of China, subject to quotas.

与此同时,为了提高人民币在境外的可获得性,过去两年里中国政府与八个海外央行签署了货币互换协议,它们是阿根廷、白俄罗斯、香港、冰岛、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡与韩国。协议总规模略高于8000亿元人民币。香港实质上的央行香港金管局(HKMA)上周动用了2000亿元人民币互换额度中的100亿元,为香港商业银行获取供企业客户贸易使用的人民币提供了一条新途径。香港的银行还可以通过内地银行和中银香港获得人民币,但受配额限制。

Chinese officials admit, however, that while the offshore market in Hong Kong can help lay the groundwork for greater international use of the currency in trade, the renminbi cannot become a reserve currency until there is much greater access to the mainland bond markets and the renminbi is easier to trade on the foreign exchange market.

不过,中国官员承认,尽管香港离岸市场有助于奠定基础,实现人民币在国际贸易中的扩大使用,但除非大幅扩大内地债券市场准入,且提高人民币在外汇市场上交易的便利性,否则人民币无法成为储备货币。

Given China’s caution about liberalising its financial system, all of this suggests a process where the renminbi takes a greater international role over a period measured in decades rather than years, meaning it will be a long time before reserve managers are really considering shifting substantial holdings of dollars into renminbi.

鉴于中国仍然对放开金融体系持谨慎态度,这一切似乎表明,人民币的国际化进程将以十年为单位推进,而不是年,这意味着外汇储备管理者还要过很久才会真正考虑将大量美元储备兑换成人民币。

“There’s not a lot of point buying renminbi in Hong Kong if you can’t ultimately buy assets in China,” says John Greenwood, Invesco chief economist and architect of Hong Kong’s exchange rate mechanism. “[But Chinese policymakers] have got to be careful that they don’t make a hole in the dam that allows a huge flood in all directions – either inwards or outwards. China has a long way to go before its domestic capital markets can be opened up to foreign inflows without it being hugely destabilising.”

“如果你最终无法在中国购买资产,那么在香港买入人民币意义不大,”景顺(Invesco)首席经济学家、港元联系汇率制度之父祁连活(John Greenwood)表示。“(但中国政策制定者)必须小心,不要让大坝开口,导致各方资金大量涌入或涌出。中国还有很长的路要走,才能向海外资金开放国内资本市场,而不致产生破坏稳定的巨大影响。”

Y et one of the big questions posed by the Chinese plan is whether the authorities will really be able to keep such a tight rein on the process. HSBC estimates that within three to five years at least half of China’s trade flows with other developing economies will be conducted in renminbi – about $2,000bn – making it one of the three top global trading currencies. With such a huge volume circulating outside the country, it could become much harder to prevent unwanted capital from entering.

然而,中国人民币国际化计划的重大问题之一是,官方是否真能对整个进程保持如此严密的控制。汇丰预计,在三到五年内,中国与其它发展中国家至少一半的贸易将以人民币结算,总额在2万亿美元左右,从而使人民币成为全球三大贸易货币之一。有如此大量的人民币在中国之外流通,要阻止不受欢迎的资金流入中国,会变得困难得多。

By encouraging the use of the renminbi, Beijing is also creating a constituency of investors, companies and central banks that will be lobbying for ever greater access to the currency and to Chinese markets.

通过鼓励人民币的使用,北京方面还在创造一个由投资者、企业及各国央行组成的群体,它们将游说中国,要求扩大人民币使用范围和国内市场的开放程度。

Indeed, one reason global financial institutions are so excited about the internationalisation process is that they expect it to punch new channels through the wall of controls that protect the domestic financial system. By pushing for greater use of its currency, China could open up more quickly than many in Beijing might think.

的确,全球金融机构之所以对人民币国际化如此兴奋,原因之一就在于,它们期待这能给保护中国国内金融体系的管制系统带来更多裂口。通过推动扩大人民币使用范围,中国的开放速度可能比北京许多官员预想的更快。