中国去年抄底买铜买铜大赚15亿美元 China sits on up to $1.5bn in copper profits

China is sitting on a profit of nearly $1.5bn (€1.08bn) from a bold trading strategy in copper based on expectations of an emerging markets-led boom.

中国已从一项大胆的铜交易策略中赚得近15亿美元利润。该策略预期全球新兴市场将引领一场繁荣。

Beijing’s bet that a ‘super- cycle’ in metals markets would keep copper prices high, despite the financial crisis, has paid off, according to dealers’ calculations. The substantial paper profits come after China’s State Reserves Bureau, the official body in charge of the country’s strategic commodities reserves, mopped up copper surpluses last year when the crisis was at its worst and prices had tumbled.

根据经销商的计算，北京方面押注，尽管爆发了金融危机，但金属市场的“超级周期”将使铜价保持高企，这一押注已取得成功。负责中国战略大宗商品储备的国家物资储备局(State Reserves Bureau)在去年危机达到顶峰、价格大跌的时候将市场上多余的铜全部收入囊中，藉此实现了上述巨额账面利润。

As demand for metals has recovered, copper markets have tightened dramatically and prices have soared.

随着金属需求复苏，铜市场供需状况已大幅收紧，价格飙升。

Metals traders estimate that the SRB bought between 250,000 and 300,000 tonnes of copper, equal to nearly 2 per cent of global annual production, in early 2009 at a price of less than $3,500 a tonne. The SRB does not disclose its purchases. As copper prices rose last week to a two-year high of $8,349 a tonne, traders and industry executives calculated Beijing’s paper profits to be about $1.2bn-$1.5bn.

金属交易员估计，中国国家物资储备局在2009年初以每吨不到3500美元的价格，买入25万至30万吨铜，相当于全球年产量近2%。该局不对外公布购买情况。鉴于上周铜价涨至每吨8349美元的两年高位，交易员和业内高管们计算得出，北京方面的账面利润约为12亿至15亿美元。

Traders and analysts believe China is preparing to cash in on its paper gains soon. Joshua Crumb, metals analyst at Goldman Sachs, said China’s SRB was likely to “prudently sell or lend metal” to keep a “lid on price spikes over the next few quarters”. The gains are a coup for the SRB after big losses in 2005, when an executive working for its trading arm, Liu Qibing, built a short position in copper – or bet on falling prices – equal to between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes. The losses prompted the SRB to overhaul its trading “to avoid more huge losses on investments”.

交易员和分析师们相信，中国准备在不久后兑现其账面利润。高盛(Goldman Sachs)金属分析师乔舒亚•克拉姆(Joshua Crumb)表示，中国国家物资储备局可能会“慎重地出售或出借金属”，以便“在未来几个季度抑制价格暴涨”。这些利润对中国国家物资储备局是个翻身仗。2005年，交易部门高管刘其兵建立了10万至20万吨铜的空头头寸（即押注铜价下跌），曾使该机构蒙受巨大亏损。为此，国家物资储备局改组了交易部门，以避免投资遭受更多重大亏损。

China has never explained, or acknowledged publicly, its buying. But mining executives and traders familiar with the SRB said it had bet that a ‘super- cycle’ of high metals prices, powered by urbanisation and industrialisation of emerging economies, would survive the effects of the financial crisis.

中国从不曾解释（或者公开确认）其购买行为。但熟悉中国国家物资储备局的矿业高管和交易员们表示，该机构曾押注，在全球各新兴经济体城市化和工业化的推动下，金属价格高企的“超级周期”将安然挺过金融危机的影响。