So new is the trade in offshore Chinese currency bonds that it has yet to gain a proper name. For want of anything else, it is often dubbed the “dim sum” market, in culinary recognition of its Hong Kong home base.
新鲜出炉的离岸人民币债券市场，迄今还没有一个像样的名字。因此人们常常称它为“点心”债券市场，取自其所在的香港的饮茶习惯。
In spite of its infancy, interest in the market is growing quickly. Caterpillar, the US-based maker of earthmoving equipment, launched a Rmb1bn ($150m) bond issue last month, making it the second multinational to tap the market, following an August issue by McDonald’s, the fast-food chain.
尽管点心债券市场还是襁褓中的婴儿，但各方对它的兴趣正迅速增长。上个月，美国工程机械制造商卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)在香港发行了10亿元人民币（合1.5亿美元）债券，成为继连锁快餐企业麦当劳(McDonald’s)之后第二家利用人民币债券市场融资的跨国企业。麦当劳在今年8月发行了人民币债券。
What makes these bond issues important is that the offshore renminbi market is much more than just a new avenue for debt financing – it is one of the core components in a plan to internationalise the Chinese currency. The process will be a slow one, with more baby steps than giant leaps, and it is by no means assured that the renminbi – also known as the yuan – will forge a decisive international role. But it is one that could have a huge long-term impact on trade, the global financial system and even international politics.
这些债券发行之所以重要，是因为离岸人民币市场远不只是债券融资的一种新渠道——它还是人民币国际化进程的核心环节之一。这个进程将是缓慢的，更像婴儿学步（而不是大跨步），而且人民币究竟能不能扮演某种决定性的国际角色，还不好说。但该计划可能会对国际贸易、全球金融体系乃至国际政治产生巨大的长期冲击。
If the plan works, the renminbi could become the main currency for doing business in Asia, the world’s most economically dynamic region, and in the long run it could become a significant part of the reserves of the world’s central banks. Indeed, some Chinese officials have already called for the renminbi to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of main currencies.
如果计划成功，人民币可能会成为亚洲的主要交易货币，而亚洲是世界最具经济活力的地区。长远来看，人民币还可能成为世界各国央行外汇储备的重要组成部分。事实上，一些中国官员已经呼吁将人民币纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一篮子货币。
The timing is also full of portents. The renminbi is starting to go global just as the future of the euro is uncertain. Eventually the shift could have an impact on the ability of the US to borrow overseas in its own currency. In China, some have taken to calling their currency the hongbi, or “redback”, to rival America’s greenback – a moniker that gives a flavour of the geopolitical undercurrents.
时机的选择也意味深远。人民币开启国际化进程的时刻，正是欧元的未来开始变得不确定的时刻。这样的角色转换，最终可能对美国以本币在海外借款的能力形成冲击。中国已有人开始称人民币为红币(redback)，与美国的绿币(greenback)相对应——这个绰号隐隐象征着相关的地缘政治暗流。
“We may be on the verge of a financial revolution of truly epic proportions,” says Qu Hongbin, China economist at HSBC, one of the banks pushing the renminbi to its corporate clients. “The world economy is, slowly but surely, moving from greenbacks to redbacks.”
“我们或许即将迎来规模真正空前的金融革命，”汇丰(HSBC)中国首席经济学家屈宏斌表示。“世界经济正从‘绿币’向‘红币’转移，速度缓慢，但趋势明确无疑。”汇丰是正在向企业客户推介人民币服务的银行之一。
In many ways, the surprise is how little the renminbi is currently used outside China’s borders. China is now the second-largest economy in the world, the largest exporter of manufactured goods and holder of the largest volume of foreign exchange reserves. Yet the amount of the currency held overseas is negligible – the result of China’s strict capital controls and restrictions on currency trade.
但从许多方面来看，人民币的境外使用极少，才是真正令人惊讶的事。中国已经是全球第二大经济体，第一大制造品出口国，外汇储备规模也位居首位。然而，海外持有的人民币数量几乎可以忽略不计，其原因是中国严格的资本管制，以及对外汇交易的限制。
“If aliens landed on earth today, they would look at the current global monetary system and think it is very weird and unreasonable,” Li Daokui, who sits on the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, told a forum in Beijing last month.
“如果外星人今天到访地球，他们会发现现行全球货币体系非常奇怪和不合理，”中国央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵上月在北京一个论坛上表示。
Yet the financial crisis has changed attitudes in Beijing and bolstered support for China to seek a greater international role for its currency. Officials argue that the crisis came about because the international monetary system allows the US to run unsustainable current account deficits. As a result, over the past year Beijing has put in place some of the conditions for the renminbi to go global.
然而，全球金融危机改变了北京方面的态度，中国推动人民币进一步国际化的计划也得到了更多支持。中国政府官员认为，之所以会发生危机，是因为当前的国际货币体系允许美国积累不可持续的经常账户赤字。因此，过去一年里，北京方面为人民币的国际化创造了一些条件。
The first step has been to encourage international trade to be conducted in renminbi. That process accelerated in June, when China expanded its year-old renminbi trade settlement scheme to every country in the world and to 20 Chinese provinces and municipalities, allowing imports and exports to be invoiced and settled in renminbi.
第一步是鼓励企业用人民币开展国际贸易。这个进程在6月得到提速，中国将试行了一年的跨境贸易人民币结算机制，扩展到世界所有国家和全国20个省市，允许进出口贸易以人民币开具发票和结算。
Even if the use of the currency is to be limited to trade, companies and banks still need to be able to hold and invest renminbi offshore – which started to become possible in some scale from July when the authorities allowed renminbi-denominated financial markets to spring to life in Hong Kong. A month later, a select group of investors, including foreign central banks, were given limited access to China’s onshore bond market. Malaysia is believed to have become the first central bank to hold mainland renminbi assets in its reserves.
虽然人民币的使用仅限于贸易，但企业与银行依然需要在海外持有人民币并用其投资的机会。自7月起，经政府允许，香港开始发展以人民币计价的金融产品市场，从而使这在一定程度上成为可能。一个月之后，包括外国央行在内的一批经过筛选的投资者，获准进入中国在岸债券市场。据信，马来西亚央行成为首家在外汇储备中持有人民币资产的外国央行。
The effect has been dramatic. The People’s Bank says trade settled in renminbi totalled Rmb340bn between June and November – from zero just a year and a half ago. The pace has stunned senior western bankers who know the region. Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong banks surged 45 per cent in October to Rmb217bn – another reflection of the use of the Chinese currency in trade.
此举的效果令人惊叹。中国央行称，今年6月至11月，以人民币结算的贸易总额达到3400亿元，而仅仅一年半前，这个数字还是零。这样的增长速度，令那些了解中国的西方资深银行家也感到惊愕。10月，香港银行的人民币存款激增45%，达到2170亿元，这从另一个侧面反映出人民币在贸易中得到大量使用。
F or Chinese companies, the attractions of settling cross-border trade in their own currency are clear. Avoiding the dollar allows them to cut transaction costs and minimise foreign exchange risks – a huge benefit in a world at risk of a global currency war.
对中国企业而言，用本币进行跨境贸易结算的吸引力显而易见。绕开美元让它们得以削减交易成本，并将外汇风险降至最低。在一个随时可能爆发全球汇率战争的世界里，这是一项巨大优势。
Sinochem, China’s biggest trading company, is one of the pioneers. The group’s offshore trading division in Singapore this year received renminbi as payment for sales of petrochemicals, rubber and fertiliser, after what it says were requests to do so from Chinese companies as well as units of Sinochem on the mainland. “This allows us to build a stronger bond with our customers,” says Song Song, finance manager at Sinochem International (Overseas), who expects the trend to continue.
中国贸易额最大的企业中化集团(Sinochem)就是先驱之一。该集团在新加坡的离岸贸易子公司今年在销售石化、橡胶、化肥等产品时接受人民币付款。该公司称，它是在中国企业和中化内地部门的请求下这么做的。“这让我们得以与客户建立更稳固的联系，”中化国际（新加坡）有限公司财务经理宋颂表示。他预计这种趋势还将继续下去。
Indeed, an increasing number of western multinationals – including McDonald’s from the US, Ikea and Nokia in the Nordic region and Germany’s Metro – are also experimenting with using the renminbi in trade deals. “For our corporate clients, US dollars and euros are no longer the de facto currencies of trade,” says Shivkumar Seerapu, Asia head of trade finance at Deutsche Bank.
的确，越来越多的西方跨国企业——包括美国的麦当劳、北欧的宜家(Ikea)、诺基亚(Nokia)以及德国的麦德龙(Metro)——也在尝试用人民币进行贸易结算。“对我们的企业客户而言，美元和欧元不再是国际贸易的事实货币，”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)贸易融资亚洲主管希夫库玛•西拉普(Shivkumar Seerapu)表示。
Deutsche, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are among banks rapidly building the infrastructure needed to process renminbi transactions across the world. Standard Chartered and its rival HSBC are meanwhile already well placed to capitalise on the internationalisation of the renminbi because they have strong positions in Hong Kong, the designated offshore centre for the Chinese currency. Makers of products “from garments to gas cylinders” have started using the renminbi, says Neil Daswani, head of transaction banking for North Asia at Standard Chartered.
德意志银行、花旗集团(Citigroup)以及摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)等银行都在迅速设置必需的基础设施，以便在全球范围内处理人民币交易。与此同时，渣打(Standard Chartered)及其竞争对手汇丰已经占据有利地位，能够获益于人民币的国际化进程，因为它们在指定的人民币离岸交易中心香港拥有稳固地位。渣打交易银行部门北亚区主管尼尔•达斯瓦尼(Neil Daswani)称，“从服装到气瓶”，各类产品的制造商都开始使用人民币。
Demand has been strongest from Hong Kong, he adds, but has also come from Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, the Middle East and the UK. According to economists and trade finance experts, the use of the renminbi in trade is likely to take off first in Asia and then between China and other developing countries.
他补充称，来自香港的需求最为强劲，但也有来自新加坡、马来西亚、韩国、日本、中东和英国的需求。据经济学家和贸易融资专家称，人民币在国际贸易中的使用，很可能首先在亚洲蓬勃发展起来，然后广泛扩展到中国与其他发展中国家的贸易。
Momentum is clearly gathering behind the renminbi internationalisation drive, yet it is still a highly unusual process and one that is not guaranteed success. In the past, market forces have driven the greater international role of a currency: but in the case of China, that development is being developed by bureaucratic plan. “The attempt to create an international and eventually fully convertible currency through a policy-driven process is unprecedented – nothing like this has ever been tried before, even partially,” says Paola Subacchi of the UK’s Chatham House think-tank in a recent paper. “Beijing is openly aware of the fact that there is no roadmap to guide this process.”
人民币国际化的势头显然正在增强。然而，这仍然是一个极不寻常的进程，能否成功还不一定。以往，推动一国货币国际化的是市场力量，但在中国，这是由政府计划推动的。“通过政策推动货币国际化，并最终实现完全自由兑换，这样的尝试是前所未有的——以前从来没有人这么试过，连不完全的尝试也没有，”英国智库查塔姆研究所(Chatham House)的保拉•苏巴基(Paola Subacchi)在最近的一篇论文中写道。“北京方面完全明白，这个过程并无可供依循的现成蓝图。”
What makes the push even more unusual is that Beijing still intends to retain a raft of capital controls, to insulate its economy and to prevent the currency from becoming fully convertible for the time being, because of the leadership’s fears about the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the impact of open capital flows on the country’s still underdeveloped financial system. As Ms Subacchi says, “past experience shows that convertibility and opening of the capital account have always preceded the international use of a currency, rather than the other way round”.
让该行动愈显不同寻常的是，中国政府仍然打算保留大量资本管制措施，以隔离本国经济，并使人民币暂时无法完全自由兑换，因为中国领导层担心外汇市场波动以及自由资金流可能对中国仍不健全的金融体系造成冲击。正如苏巴基所言：“过去的经验显示，总是自由兑换和资本账户开放在前，货币的国际化在后，而不是相反。”
Instead, China is trying to use Hong Kong as a laboratory, where it can encourage international companies and investors to hold and trade renminbi-denominated products. The dim sum bonds are one part of that plan.
中国的替代做法是把香港当作一个试验室，鼓励海外企业和投资者在香港持有并交易人民币计价的金融产品。点心债券就是这个计划的一部分。
Meanwhile, to boost the foreign availability of renminbi, Beijing has over the past two years signed currency swap agreements with central banks in eight countries – Argentina, Belarus, Hong Kong, Iceland, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea – totalling a little over Rmb800bn. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank, last month drew down Rmb10bn of its Rmb200bn swap line, opening a new way for commercial banks in the city to obtain renminbi for their corporate clients to use in trade deals. Hong Kong banks can also obtain renminbi via mainland banks and the local branch of Bank of China, subject to quotas.
与此同时，为了提高人民币在境外的可获得性，过去两年里中国政府与八个海外央行签署了货币互换协议，它们是阿根廷、白俄罗斯、香港、冰岛、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡与韩国。协议总规模略高于8000亿元人民币。香港实质上的央行香港金管局(HKMA)上周动用了2000亿元人民币互换额度中的100亿元，为香港商业银行获取供企业客户贸易使用的人民币提供了一条新途径。香港的银行还可以通过内地银行和中银香港获得人民币，但受配额限制。
Chinese officials admit, however, that while the offshore market in Hong Kong can help lay the groundwork for greater international use of the currency in trade, the renminbi cannot become a reserve currency until there is much greater access to the mainland bond markets and the renminbi is easier to trade on the foreign exchange market.
不过，中国官员承认，尽管香港离岸市场有助于奠定基础，实现人民币在国际贸易中的扩大使用，但除非大幅扩大内地债券市场准入，且提高人民币在外汇市场上交易的便利性，否则人民币无法成为储备货币。
Given China’s caution about liberalising its financial system, all of this suggests a process where the renminbi takes a greater international role over a period measured in decades rather than years, meaning it will be a long time before reserve managers are really considering shifting substantial holdings of dollars into renminbi.
鉴于中国仍然对放开金融体系持谨慎态度，这一切似乎表明，人民币的国际化进程将以十年为单位推进，而不是年，这意味着外汇储备管理者还要过很久才会真正考虑将大量美元储备兑换成人民币。
“There’s not a lot of point buying renminbi in Hong Kong if you can’t ultimately buy assets in China,” says John Greenwood, Invesco chief economist and architect of Hong Kong’s exchange rate mechanism. “[But Chinese policymakers] have got to be careful that they don’t make a hole in the dam that allows a huge flood in all directions – either inwards or outwards. China has a long way to go before its domestic capital markets can be opened up to foreign inflows without it being hugely destabilising.”
“如果你最终无法在中国购买资产，那么在香港买入人民币意义不大，”景顺(Invesco)首席经济学家、港元联系汇率制度之父祁连活(John Greenwood)表示。“（但中国政策制定者）必须小心，不要让大坝开口，导致各方资金大量涌入或涌出。中国还有很长的路要走，才能向海外资金开放国内资本市场，而不致产生破坏稳定的巨大影响。”
Y et one of the big questions posed by the Chinese plan is whether the authorities will really be able to keep such a tight rein on the process. HSBC estimates that within three to five years at least half of China’s trade flows with other developing economies will be conducted in renminbi – about $2,000bn – making it one of the three top global trading currencies. With such a huge volume circulating outside the country, it could become much harder to prevent unwanted capital from entering.
然而，中国人民币国际化计划的重大问题之一是，官方是否真能对整个进程保持如此严密的控制。汇丰预计，在三到五年内，中国与其它发展中国家至少一半的贸易将以人民币结算，总额在2万亿美元左右，从而使人民币成为全球三大贸易货币之一。有如此大量的人民币在中国之外流通，要阻止不受欢迎的资金流入中国，会变得困难得多。
By encouraging the use of the renminbi, Beijing is also creating a constituency of investors, companies and central banks that will be lobbying for ever greater access to the currency and to Chinese markets.
通过鼓励人民币的使用，北京方面还在创造一个由投资者、企业及各国央行组成的群体，它们将游说中国，要求扩大人民币使用范围和国内市场的开放程度。
Indeed, one reason global financial institutions are so excited about the internationalisation process is that they expect it to punch new channels through the wall of controls that protect the domestic financial system. By pushing for greater use of its currency, China could open up more quickly than many in Beijing might think.
的确，全球金融机构之所以对人民币国际化如此兴奋，原因之一就在于，它们期待这能给保护中国国内金融体系的管制系统带来更多裂口。通过推动扩大人民币使用范围，中国的开放速度可能比北京许多官员预想的更快。
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