In a matter of days, the situation on the Korean peninsula appears to have switched from the brink of war to hope for new dialogue. The North’s restraint over the past week and the South’s new willingness to resume six-party talks, however, may owe more to Chinese efforts than a volte-face by Seoul.
短短几天，朝鲜半岛的局势，似乎就已经从濒临战争，转变为对新一轮对话充满希望。不过，朝鲜过去一周的克制和韩国新近表现出来的重开六方会谈的意愿，也许主要应归功于中国的努力，而非首尔方面态度的转变。
According to Jin Canrong, associate dean of the school of international studies at Renmin University, China’s influence “has definitely been a factor”.
中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长金灿荣表示，中国的影响“肯定是一个因素”。
And although Beijing has been at pains to avoid the impression that it was acting under US pressure to persuade Pyongyang to stop its belligerence, Washington’s hand was also apparent. “When [James Steinberg US deputy secretary of state] visited Beijing two weeks ago, his attitude was quite stern, so China went and made some stronger effort [to lobby Pyongyang]”, Professor Jin said.
虽然北京竭力避免给外界留下这样一个印象，即它是在美国压力下才劝说平壤停止挑衅的，但华盛顿的影响也很明显。“（美国副国务卿詹姆斯•斯坦伯格(James Steinberg)）两周前访华时，他的态度十分强硬，所以中国做出了更大的努力（去劝说朝鲜），”金灿荣说道。
This was a sharp reversal from Beijing’s initial refusal to condemn Pyongyang for last month’s shelling of the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, which triggered the latest crisis, and also from China’s unwillingness to accept South Korea’s view that one of its warships, the Cheonan, had been sunk by North Korea this year.
这与北京之前的态度截然不同。朝鲜上月炮击韩国的延平岛，引发了最近的危机，但北京最初拒绝谴责平壤。中国此前也不愿意接受韩国认为其天安舰今年系被朝鲜击沉的看法。
The change is part of China’s careful balancing act between maintaining its long-standing alliance with a reclusive and aggressive neighbour and its newer role as a responsible major power with friendly ties to the US and other members of the international community.
中国既要与孤立而激进的邻国朝鲜维持由来已久的盟友关系，又要扮演负责任大国的新角色，与美国和国际社会的其他国家保持友好。上述转变就是中国在两者间小心平衡的结果。
China hopes to use North Korea as a buffer against American dominance in the region but also fears that Pyongyang’s aggression could trigger war and chaos.
中国希望利用朝鲜缓冲美国在亚洲地区的主导地位，但又担心平壤的攻击姿态会引发战争和混乱。
“China’s overall priority with regard to North Korea is stability, which explains its policy evolution after the shelling of Yeonpyeong island last month,” said Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, north-east Asia project director at the International Crisis Group.
国际危机监察机构(International Crisis Group)东北亚项目主任斯蒂芬妮•克莱恩-阿尔布兰特(Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt)称：“关于朝鲜，中国最主要考虑的是稳定，这解释了上月延平岛遭炮击后中国政策的演变。”
“In the immediate aftermath, China believed that a conflict in the Yellow Sea was unlikely and instead focused on US involvement in the region,” Ms Kleine-Ahlbrandt added. “But as tensions escalated, China became more focused on the risks of conflict and was willing to accept enhanced US involvement and ask the North not to overreact.”
克莱恩-阿尔布兰特补充道：“事件刚发生时，中国认为在黄海发生冲突的可能性不大，因而把关注重点放在了美国对该地区的介入。但随着紧张局势升级，中国开始更关注冲突的风险，愿意接受美国进一步介入并要求朝鲜不要反应过度。”
On the surface, the only sign of change was a statement, still carefully balanced, last week in which the Chinese foreign ministry urged Pyongyang to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the country.
表面上，改变的唯一迹象是一则依然小心平衡的声明——中国外交部上周敦促朝鲜允许国际原子能机构(IAEA)检查员重返朝鲜。
But observers said behind the scenes Beijing convinced Pyongyang that a war on the Korean peninsula would be undesirable and there was a real danger of such a conflict.
但观察人士表示，北京方面已经在幕后说服平壤：朝鲜半岛发生战争将是不受欢迎的，而此类冲突的危险切实存在。
It is understood China argued that the North Korean attack had exhausted South Korea’s patience and tolerance and that Seoul was likely to provoke Pyongyang with military exercises and hardline rhetoric.
据信，中国提出，朝鲜的攻击已经达到了韩国忍耐和容忍的底线，首尔有可能通过军事演习和强硬言辞刺激平壤。
Chinese diplomats told their North Korean counterparts that, if they responded, they would fall into a trap set by South Korea and the US.
中国外交官告诉朝鲜同僚，如果朝鲜作出回应，就会掉进韩国和美国设下的圈套。
But while Seoul’s agreement to re-enter talks was viewed with relief in the Chinese foreign ministry’s department of Asian affairs, Beijing is under no illusion that it is nearing a solution to the conflict.
虽然首尔同意重启会谈让中国外交部亚洲司松了一口气，但北京并未幻想冲突已经接近解决。
“China’s approach towards the Korean peninsula is fundamentally different from that of the US – the six-party talks are not a way to solve the problem but to control the crisis,” said Prof Jin.
金灿荣说：“中国对待朝鲜半岛的方式与美国截然不同——六方会谈不是为了解决问题，而是为了控制危机。”
He sees Beijing’s long-term goal as helping North Korea transform from an ideology-driven country to a normal member of the international community and from a political system focused on the military to one focused on the economy – much like the path that China has taken over the past 30 years.
他认为，北京的长期目标是帮助朝鲜从一个意识形态挂帅的国家转型为国际社会中的正常国家，让政治体制从军事优先转变为关注经济——与中国过去30年走过的道路十分相似。
In the short term, what matters to Beijing is preventing its awkward alliance from doing damage to its other international ties. “The importance of the upcoming visit of Hu Jintao [Chinese president] to the US played a role in the shift [in China’s handling of North Korea],” said Ms Kleine-Ahlbrandt.
短期内，对北京而言最重要的是，不要让这个令人尴尬的盟友破坏中国与其他国家的关系。克莱恩-阿尔布兰特表示：“（中国国家主席）胡锦涛即将访美的重要性，对于（中国处理朝鲜问题）转变发挥了作用，”
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