美国继续对平壤“战略忍耐” US remains patient with North Koreans

North Korea is again moving up the international agenda with the revelation that it has been developing a secret nuclear plant – and further allegations this week that it may be hiding other facilities as well.

在朝鲜披露自己一直在兴建一座秘密核工厂——加之本周又有人宣称其可能藏有其它核设施之后，这个国家再度登上国际议程。

The question being asked in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo is: how urgent a threat does Pyongyang now represent?

美国、韩国及日本政府目前面对的问题是：朝鲜现在构成的威胁有多紧迫？

At stake is the sustain­ability of the current US approach of “strategic patience”, which seeks to contain and apply pressure on North Korea, rather than rushing to give it concessions. That tactic depends on US efforts to convince China, North Korea’s greatest ally and source of support, to step up pressure on Pyongyang. The US campaign is set to reach its climax when President Hu Jintao of China visits Washington next month.

一件正在接受考验的事情是，美国对朝鲜的“战略忍耐”是否可持续。这一策略寻求遏制朝鲜并向其施压，而非匆忙向其妥协。该战术的成败，取决于美国能否成功劝说中国——朝鲜的头号盟友和第一大援助来源——向朝鲜施加更大的压力。中国国家主席胡锦涛下月访美时，美国敦促中国向朝鲜施压的努力将达到高潮。

First impressions might suggest the US approach is flawed, since North Korea appears to have put in place an apparently extensive uranium enrichment programme despite tough sanctions intended to keep the country in check.

乍看之下，人们可能会觉得美国的这套做法有问题，因为尽管国际社会为了遏制朝鲜，已经对其实施了严厉制裁，但朝鲜看上去仍然实施了规模显然不小的铀浓缩计划。

However, a senior US administration official told the Financial Times that North Korea obtained much of its nuclear equipment before new UN sanctions last year, and that the US had to assume the country had other uranium enrichment-related sites beyond the facility announced last month. Enrichment can yield both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material.

不过，美国一位高级政府官员向英国《金融时报》表示，朝鲜的许多核装置，是去年联合国向其实施新制裁之前获得的。他还表示，美国必须假定朝鲜除了上月公开的核设施以外，还有其它的铀浓缩相关设施。浓缩铀既可以用于生产核燃料，也可用来制造武器级的材料。

“It wouldn’t be shocking to the US if North Korea were to announce the existence of another enrichment site,” said another US official. “They haven’t exactly been careful about tipping the world off to their enrichment activities. They’ve made some bone-headed moves that have accelerated our ability to learn what they’re up to.”

另一位美国官员表示：“就算朝鲜宣布还拥有另一座铀浓缩设施，美国也不会感到震惊。他们并没有对自己的铀浓缩行为守口如瓶。他们以前的一些愚蠢举动，提高了我们判断他们将作何行动的能力。”

US officials say Pyong­yang is unlikely to have built its newly announced enrichment facility from scratch in little more than a year, as it claims. Instead, they say it probably shipped centrifuges from other, undeclared, facilities where they were tested and assembled.

美国官员表示，朝鲜宣布，最新公布的铀浓缩工厂是在一年时间里从零开始建起的，但这种说法不太可信。其实，他们很可能是在其它未公开的工厂进行试验和组装后，再把离心机运到这座工厂的。

So, rather than confronting a country that has set up an enrichment facility in very little time in spite of sanctions, Washington seems to be dealing with one that developed the programme in secrecy over the preceding years.

所以说，华盛顿要对付的并不是一个尽管受到制裁、却能在短时间内建成一座铀浓缩工厂的国家，而是一个前些年一直在秘密开展核计划的国家。

The flipside is that North Korea’s programme is more extensive and sophisticated than had been thought, and US intelligence has been inconsistent.

另一方面，朝鲜核计划的规模和先进程度超出人们的预想，而美国掌握的情报并不一致。

Sig Hecker, the visiting scientist who saw the recently unveiled enrichment plant, said its control room was “astonishingly modern”. But he added that, although he was assured the plant was now working, he was not able to verify this – highlighting one of the uncertainties about the programme.

访问朝鲜时见识过该国新公开的铀浓缩工厂的科学家西格•赫克(Sig Hecker)表示，该工厂控制室“的现代化程度高得令人吃惊”。但他补充说，尽管他被告知工厂当时正在运行，但他无法证实这一点——从中可见朝鲜核计划充满不确定性。

Still, Washington says it is clear that North Korea has made more nuclear progress than Iran – producing enough plutonium for six to eight bombs and even overtaking Tehran on uranium enrichment. One South Korean report on Wednesday suggested that Pyongyang was preparing for a third plutonium test next year, although Seoul officials said there was no concrete evidence.

尽管如此，美国政府仍认为，朝鲜在核计划上取得的进展比伊朗大——其生产的钚材料足够制造6至8枚核弹，甚至在铀浓缩方面超过了伊朗。韩国周三发表一份报告，声称朝鲜正准备明年进行第三次钚试验。不过韩国官员也表示，没有确凿证据可以证明这一点。

The US continues to see Tehran as a much bigger international threat than North Korea, partly because of Pyongyang’s more limited ambitions: to acquire political and economic concessions in response for changing its behaviour – a path some officials liken to a protection racket.

美国仍认为伊朗在国际上造成的威胁远甚于朝鲜，原因之一是，朝鲜的野心没那么大：朝鲜图的是通过改变自己的核行为，换取政治和经济上的让步——一些官员将这种策略比作是“黑帮收取保护费”。

Indeed, some US officials, such as Gary Samore, Barack Obama’s top adviser on proliferation, say the possibility of nuclear trade with Iran is their biggest concern about North Korea.

事实上，包括奥巴马首席核问题顾问加里•萨默尔(Gary Samore)在内的一些美国官员均表示，对于朝鲜的核计划，他们最担心的是朝鲜可能和伊朗之间存在核交易。

So despite the recent claims, US officials say they are sticking to their current course of action. North Korea may now be a bigger threat than it was – but not yet so big that Washington has fundamentally altered its calculations.

因此，尽管朝鲜公开了上述核工厂，美国官员仍表示将坚持现行的做法。当前朝鲜构成的威胁或许大于以往，但还不至于让华盛顿从根本上改变自己的考量。