‘Explosive’ and ‘phenomenal’ are the sort of adjectives that best describe the growth of Chinese tourism to Taiwan over the past two years. From having no regular direct cross-Strait flights before 2008 and just 100,000 tourists that year, China became the biggest source of tourists for Taiwan with over a million visitors last year.
“爆炸性的”、“非凡的”之类的字眼，最适合用来形容过去两年中国大陆居民赴台湾旅游人次的增长。2008年以前，海峡两岸还没有开通定期直航。2008年，大陆赴台旅游只有10万人次。如今，大陆已成为台湾最大的游客来源，去年赴台游客人数超过100万。
Yet an even bigger transformation may be in store this year, as China appears to have finally agreed to allow travelers to visit Taiwan individually rather than as part of a big tour groups.
然而，今年可能迎来更大的转变。大陆方面似乎终于同意允许境内居民以个人形式赴台湾旅游，而不一定非得跟团。
Wang Yi, head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, told reporters on Wednesday that “provided all preparation work is complete, we will fight hard for the free individual traveler scheme to launch in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai in the second quarter of this year”.
大陆方面的台湾事务办主任王毅周三告诉记者：“在各项准备工作完备的前提下，我们将力争于今年第二季度，在北京和上海等地启动个人自由行计划。”
While there have been discussions about a free individual traveller scheme since group tourism was liberalised with direct flights in 2008, this is the first time that China has set a time frame for the actual easing of regulations.
自从2008年开通直航和开放团队游以来，有关方面就开放“个人自由行”进行过诸多讨论。但大陆方面就实际开放设定时间表，这还是第一次。
Allowing individual travel is an important step towards spreading the economic benefits of Chinese tourism more broadly, as the tight schedule of group tours has meant that most Chinese tourists only stay in a narrow set of hotels, eat in a few restaurants and buy Taiwanese goods from certain shops.
就扩大大陆赴台旅游的经济效益而言，开放个人游是重要的一步。团队游由于行程紧凑，大部分游客只能在为数有限的酒店和餐厅住宿和就餐，从特定商店购买台湾商品。
It also shows that both sides are becoming more comfortable with the recent political detente and with the establishment of greater ties between China and Taiwan. A big concern in the past was that individual travellers from China would overstay their visas, or that exposure to Taiwan’s often raucous democracy would erode support for the communist party back in mainland China.
开放个人游也表明，对于近期海峡两岸政治局势缓和、以及建立更加紧密的联系，双方的心态都变得越来越放松。以往的一大隐忧，是大陆个人游客在签证到期后可能逾期不归，或者，见识过台湾大多数时候显得吵吵闹闹的民主的游客，返回大陆后不会像以前那么拥护共产党。
Most analysts expect the scheme won’t have a big immediate impact because only a small number of individuals will be allowed to visit Taiwan at the beginning. However, all agree that over the long term the potential economic benefits of Chinese tourism would be very big.
分析师大多认为，开放赴台个人游不会立刻产生重大影响，因为初期只会面向一小部分人开放。不过所有人都认为，长期而言，大陆赴台旅游的潜在经济效益将十分巨大。
Frank Wang, analyst at Morgan Stanley, said Chinese visitors accounted for about 0.4 per cent of Taiwan’s GDP in 2009. However, should Chinese tourists visit Taiwan at the same rate and with the same spending levels as when they go to Hong Kong, that market would account for 8 per cent of Taiwan’s GDP.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师王安亚(Frank Wang)表示，2009年大陆游客为台湾贡献了约0.4%的GDP。假如大陆游客赴台旅游的频率和消费达到他们赴香港旅游的水平，那么大陆游客对台湾GDP的贡献将达到8%。
Jacqueline Tse, equity strategist at HSBC, argues that individual travel would also bring other benefits to Taiwan’s economy. Greater familiarity with Taiwan would lead to more purchases of Taiwanese real estate and stocks, she says:“For example, mainland participation in the Hong Kong property market did not meaningfully pick up until 2009, several years after HK IVS [individual visitor scheme] gave mainlanders a chance to explore Hong Kong freely. Getting acquainted with the city and its people was a key part of the decision-making process.”
汇丰(HSBC)股票策略师Jacqueline Tse认为，开放大陆赴台个人游也将为台湾经济带来其他效益。大陆居民更加熟悉台湾以后，将会更多地购买台湾的房产和股票。她表示：“比如说，大陆人是从2009年才开始大举涌入香港房地产市场的，那时香港个人游已经开通了几年，让大陆人有了机会自由地探索香港。了解这个城市和它的居民，是决策过程中的一个关键环节。”
It looks like Taiwan can look forward to more visitors from its northern neighbour in the months to come.
目前看来，台湾未来几个月内有望迎来更多大陆游客。
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