Every few hours, on the causeway across Panama’s Lake Gatun, a diesel engine comes into view, hauling wagonloads of containers stacked two high.
在巴拿马加通湖的堤道上，每隔几小时就会驶来一列柴油机车，满载着堆叠成两层的集装箱。
They are making the 80km journey between the Atlantic and Pacific on the Panama Canal Railway, opened in 1855, which proudly boasts of being the world’s first trans-continental rail line.
它们是在巴拿马运河铁路(Panama Canal Railway)上作横跨大西洋与太平洋的旅行。该铁路于1855年开通，比运河提前了59年，全长80公里，骄傲地宣称自己是世界上第一条跨大陆铁路线。
The causeway takes the railway, opened 59 years before the canal, across a vast artificial lake created during canal construction.
加通湖堤道承载着铁路线，穿过了修建运河期间开辟的巨大人工湖。
Colombia’s plans to build its own, Chinese-financed rail line across the isthmus raise questions about the demand for a second inter-oceanic rail line within this relatively small area of central America.
哥伦比亚计划接受中国出资，修建自己跨越巴拿马地峡的铁路线。该计划引出了一个问题：在这个相对较小的中美洲地区，是否需要建设第二条连接两个大洋的铁路线。
The Path Between the Seas, David McCullough’s history of the canal’s building, highlights the risks. Initially hugely profitable, the Panama railway saw much of its business disappear in 1869 when the US’s first trans-continental railroad became a cheaper, faster alternative for much of its traffic.
大卫•麦卡洛夫(David McCullough)记述巴拿马运河修建史的《沟通大洋之河》(The Path Between the Seas)一书，突显了这些风险。巴拿马铁路起初利润很高，但到1869年，当美国的首条跨大陆铁路线成为一种更廉价、更快捷的交通方式时，巴拿马铁路便失去了大部分业务。
The key point, according to Rodolfo Sabonge, the Panama Canal Authority’s vice-president for research, will be whether the “dry canal” enables shippers to receive goods more quickly or more cheaply. Mr Sabonge says he remains more concerned about competition from US railroads, which let shippers land Asian manufactured goods in California and send them by rail to eastern US cities.
巴拿马运河管理局(Panama Canal Authority)研究副总裁鲁道夫•沙宝基(Rodolfo Sabonge)表示，关键在于“干运河”能否缩短运货时间，降低运货成本。沙宝基称，他仍然更担心来自美国铁路的竞争，因为发货人可以将亚洲制造的商品卸在加州，然后通过铁路运送至美国东部的各个城市。
The rail route costs more than the “all-water” route to the east coast via Panama, but is quicker.
相比于经由巴拿马去往东海岸的“全水路”路线，铁路线虽然成本更高，但速度也更快。
“That’s a system that makes sense because it really saves time,” Mr Sabonge says.
沙宝基表示：“那个系统是合理的，因为它确实能节省时间。”
Ideas for new routes across the tantalisingly narrow Panamanian isthmus are not new, however. A canal across Nicaragua, linking up its natural lakes, came close to being built in the early 20th century, before the US decided to concentrate on Panama.
然而，在异常狭窄的巴拿马地峡上修建新路线的想法早已有之。20世纪初，在美国开凿巴拿马运河之前，一条跨越尼加拉瓜全境、将境内天然湖泊连接起来的运河，就差点动工修建。
Enrique Bolaños, then president of Nicaragua, sought to revive the Nicaragua Canal scheme in 2006 when the Panama Canal was close to capacity. “It is not only feasible but it is necessary,” he said.
2006年，当巴拿马运河运力接近极限时，时任尼加拉瓜总统里克•博拉尼奥斯(Enrique Bolaños)曾打算重启尼加拉瓜运河计划。他表示：“这项计划不仅可行，而且必要。”
The Panama Railway certainly shows the potential role for a cross-isthmus railway. Ships transiting the canal can make only one stop to drop off containers destined both for Pacific ports in Latin America and those in the Caribbean.
巴拿马铁路无疑展示了跨地峡铁路的潜在功能。穿过巴拿马运河的船只需停留一站，就可卸下运往拉美太平洋港口与加勒比海港口的集装箱。
But the challenge may be to make the economics of a railway designed to supplant the canal add up. One veteran shipping executive, who asked not to be named, points out that the container moves at either end of the “dry canal” are likely to cost $200 each. Charges for the rail portion will be at least $100. The figures compare with an average fee per container of about $100 for use of the canal.
但挑战也许在于，如何能让旨在取代运河的铁路线增加经济效益。一位要求匿名的资深航运高管指出，在“干运河”的任何一端，每只集装箱的搬运费用可能高达200美元。铁路部分的运费将至少为100美元。而如果使用运河，每只集装箱的平均费用约为100美元。
The logistics of moving whole shiploads of containers could also be daunting. The Panama Canal is currently in the middle of a $5.25bn expansion to double its capacity and accommodate modern container ships carrying 12,000 twenty-foot equivalent units of containers. Even if the dry canal’s trains can carry more than the 270 TEU of a fully laden Panama Canal Railway train, a 12,000 TEU shipload might take 30 trains to move.
搬运整船集装箱所需的物流可能也会令人生畏。巴拿马运河目前正在进行52.5亿美元的扩建，以便将运力提高一倍，并可容纳装载1.2万只标准箱的现代集装箱船只。即使“干运河”列车能够装载的集装箱，比一列巴拿马运河铁路列车满载的270只标准箱还多，1.2万只标准箱大概也需要30列列车。
“Even if you could run 20 to 30 trains a day, that’s just one ship,” the veteran shipping executive points out. Such daunting logistical and financial challenges make most observers sceptical that a multi-billion dollar “dry canal” could realistically compete with an expanded traditional canal.
前文提到的资深高管指出：“即使你一天能发20到30列列车，那也就只是一船而已。”这些令人生畏的物流与财务挑战，让大多数观察人士不禁怀疑，与运力提高后的传统运河相比，投资数十亿美元建设“干运河”是否具有现实的竞争力。
Yet, in an area whose geography has inspired improbable intervention from outsiders, few will dismiss the chance of unexpected twists in the story.
不过，在一个地理上易守难攻的地区，几乎没有人敢排除故事出现意外转折的可能性。
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