It is no secret that China’s appetite for Treasuries has been waning. Official figures now bear out Beijing’s stated desire to diversify away from US government debt.
中国对美国国债的兴趣一直在减退，这并不是秘密。官方数据如今证实了中国政府已经公开申明的意愿：减少对美国政府债务的购买，实现投资多样化。
The market impact is likely to be muted for now, given the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying under its “quantitative easing” programme. But what happens when QE2 ends in June? Beijing’s pull-back may then become noticeable.
鉴于美联储(Fed)正根据“定量宽松”计划购买债券，中国政府的撤退目前可能对市场影响不大。但到6月份第二轮定量宽松(QE2)结束时会怎样呢？影响也许会变得非常明显。
The US Treasury market occupies the centre of the global financial system. It is the deepest and most liquid bond market in the world, and demand from central banks and institutional investors, including private sector banks and hedge funds, has allowed the American government to finance its multibillion-dollar budget deficits.
美国国债市场在全球金融体系中占据着中心位置。它是全球发展最完善、流动性最强的债券市场，来自央行以及包括私人部门银行和对冲基金在内的机构投资者的需求，使美国政府得以为其数十亿美元的预算赤字提供资金。
Indeed, the US is more dependent than other countries on foreign investors buying its debt. The UK, Italy and Japan are largely funded by domestic investors. So far, robust demand for Treasuries from the UK and, to a lesser extent, Japan and US domestic investors has helped offset China’s waning appetite over the past year. The Fed effect has been supportive, too. The US central bank has become the largest single holder of Treasuries, with $1,160bn, as it continues buying securities.
事实上，美国比其他国家更加依赖外国投资者购买其债务。英国、意大利与日本的资金主要来自国内投资者。迄今为止，英国、日本（程度稍轻些）及美国国内投资者对美国国债的旺盛需求，帮助抵消了过去一年中国兴趣减退的影响。美联储也起到了支持作用。随着美联储继续购买美国国债，这家美国央行已成为美国国债最大的持有者，持有额达到1.16万亿美元。
But as Barack Obama, US president, attempts to tackle the country’s burgeoning deficit with austere budget proposals, there are growing worries that the cost of servicing the national debt could grow. At some stage, US interest rates may jump sharply to keep attracting buyers of Treasury debt.
但在美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)试图以严厉的预算提案解决本国不断扩大的赤字之际，人们却越来越担忧，国家债务的偿债成本可能会上升。到了某个阶段，为了继续吸引美国国债的买家，美国也许不得不大幅加息。
“The low level of yields currently may not be attractive and in the future the Treasury may need a higher real rate to attract capital,” says Gerald Lucas, senior investment adviser at Deutsche Bank. Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, are already rising. Ten-year yields rose to 3.77 per cent last week, their highest since April, extending a three-month bear run from about 2.5 per cent.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)高级投资顾问杰拉尔德•卢卡斯(Gerald Lucas)表示：“当前低水平的收益率可能不够有吸引力，将来，美国也许需要提高美国国债的实际收益率，以吸引资金。”美国国债收益率（走势与价格相反）目前已经在上升。两年期美国国债收益率上周升至3.77%，创下去年4月以来的最高水平，延续了从约2.5%以来为期三个月的上涨势头。
Among the major foreign holders of Treasury debt, China has long been the largest and is seen as a bellwether of foreign investor participation. China ended 2010 with $891bn in Treasuries, extending its drop from a record high of $940bn in July 2009.
在美国国债的主要外国持有者中，中国长期以来一直是最大的持有者，而且被视为外国投资者参与的领头羊。2010年底，中国持有美国国债8910亿美元，延续了自2009年7月创下9400亿美元纪录以来的下降趋势。
“The upward march in Chinese reserves has been accompanied by reduced participation in the Treasury market over the past year,” say analysts at TD Securities. “The implications for the US are not particularly daunting yet, but are nevertheless a bit troubling.”
道明证券(TD Securities)的分析师表示：“过去一年，中国外汇储备的上升势头伴随着对美国国债市场参与度的减少。对美国的影响虽然算不上特别吓人，但也有些令人担忧。”
US households, hedge funds, banks and private pension funds have increased their Treasury holdings in the past two years (see chart). But, as the economy recovers and inflation picks up, there is a risk these investors will seek better returns from other assets, equities for example, and not government debt.
过去两年，美国家庭、对冲基金、银行和私人养老基金增加了美国国债持有量（见图表）。但随着经济复苏、通胀抬头，这些投资者可能会转向其它资产（比如股票，而非政府债券），以求获得更好的回报。
The significance has not escaped policymakers and key players in the bond market: US debt servicing costs will amount to $240bn for the 2011 fiscal year, equivalent to the entire budget deficit in 2006, according to RBS estimates.
政策制定者与债券市场的关键参与者注意到了这种趋势的重要性：据苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)估计，美国2011财政年度的偿债成本将达到2400亿美元，相当于2006年全年的预算赤字。
This month a group of bond market experts, representing some of the biggest banks and hedge funds investing in Treasuries, voiced its concern about the reliance on foreign buyers for purchasing a large slice of the country’s $9,000bn in outstanding government securities.
美国9万亿美元政府债券余额中，有一大部分要依赖外国投资者购买——对此，一群代表投资于美国国债的大型银行与对冲基金的债券市场专家本月表达了自己的担忧。
“Foreign ownership of Treasury debt was significant, with ownership concentrated among a few key foreign investors,” said the minutes from a meeting of the Treasury borrowing advisory committee. “A more diversified debt holder base would prepare the Treasury for a potential decline in foreign participation.”
美国财政部借款顾问委员会(TBAC)的会议纪要显示：“外国持有的美国国债数额巨大，所有权集中在少数几个关键的外国投资者手中。一个更为多样化的债券持有者的构成，将帮助美国国债为外国参与度可能下降做好准备。”
One proposal advocated at the meeting for diversifying the base of investors would entail the Treasury issuing new securities, including “callable” debt, ultra-long bonds with maturities of up to 100 years and floating rate debt, on which payments to investors would rise and fall with inflation.
会议上提出了一项实现投资者构成多样化的提案，包括由财政部发行新证券，包括“可赎回”债券、期限长达100年的超长期债券，以及利息跟随通胀涨跌的浮动利率债券。
These securities could appeal to domestic investors, particularly prospective retirees. They could also enjoy increased demand from banks and pension funds as a result of new international banking rules and proposed reforms to pensions accounting. The advisory committee estimates demand for long-term US bonds could reach $2,400bn in the next five years as these new rules take effect. The alternative, should yields rise sharply, could be discomforting for taxpayers.
这些证券可能会吸引国内投资者，尤其是即将退休的人。由于国际银行业新规的推行与养老金会计制度拟议的改革，银行与养老金对它们的需求可能也会增加。财政部借款顾问委员会估计，未来5年，随着新规的生效，美国长期债券的需求可能会达到2.4万亿美元。而万一收益率大幅上升，另一个选择则可能令纳税人感到不安。
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