朝鲜动机引发外界争议Pyongyang ratchets up rhetoric of conflict

The arrival this weekend of a US aircraft carrier in the Yellow Sea represents an act of political solidarity with South Korea by Washington, but no one expects North Korea to back down, and some believe that Kim Jong-il, the reclusive state’s leader, might enjoy the additional attention.

上周末，一艘美军航空母舰驶抵黄海，这体现了美国与韩国在政治上的高度团结。但没有人认为朝鲜会退让。甚至有人认为，这个“隐士国家”的领导人金正日(Kim Jong-il)或许还很喜欢这种额外的关注。

Pyongyang used familiar rhetoric on Friday to warn that joint US-South Korea military exercises, beginning on Sunday, will push the region further towards conflict.

上周日，平壤老调重弹，警告称周日开始的美韩联合军事演习，将把朝鲜半岛进一步推向冲突。

The four days of manoeuvres take place as North Korea watchers debate Pyong­yang’s motivation for shelling the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong on Tuesday, killing four people and des­troying dozens of houses.

为期4天的军事演习开始之际，朝鲜观察人士正就周二平壤炮击韩国延坪岛(Yeonpyeong)的动机展开激辩。炮击导致4人丧生，数十栋房屋被毁。

In the most extreme interpretation, Mr Kim, who is also accused of torpedoing a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March, will try to provoke the South with ever more chilling strikes until he triggers a war.

最极端的解释是，金正日将以越来越令人胆寒的攻击挑衅韩国，直至引发一场战争。金正日曾被指控在今年3月下令用鱼雷袭击韩国军舰天安号(Cheonan)。

The more optimistic interpretation favoured by South Korean officials and international banks is that Mr Kim will never set his country on a trajectory to such probable self-destruction.

韩国官员与全球银行界偏向一种较为乐观的解释，即金正日永远不会让自己的国家走上这样一条可能导致自我毁灭的道路。

Brian Myers, an expert on North Korean ideology at Dongseo university, rejects this view. He says the country can define itself only through its ideology of “military first”. Realising that trying to improve the economy is futile, the Kim dynasty has no choice but to try to vindicate its existence with military victories.

但韩国东西大学(Dongseo University)的朝鲜意识形态专家布赖恩•迈尔斯(Brian Myers)驳斥了这种观点。他表示，朝鲜只可能以“先军”理念定义自身。当金家王朝认识到发展经济的努力都是徒劳时，便别无选择，只能试图以军事胜利来维系自我的存在。

“North Korea cannot shift its focus from military to economic affairs without be- coming a fourth-rate South Korea,” he says. Encouraged by the South’s unwillingness to retaliate, the North will push the boundaries again. “They are going to cross a point sooner or later where South Korea or the US has to respond.”

“朝鲜若将注意力从军事转向经济事务，只能沦为一个四流的韩国，”他说。他认为韩国不愿反击的态度会鼓励朝鲜再次挑战韩国忍耐的极限。“他们迟早会越过极限，让韩国和美国不得不作出回应。”

Michael Breen, a biographer of Mr Kim, says the North may be focusing on the disputed maritime border between the countries – the Northern Limit Line – in the Yellow Sea. The area was the scene of naval battles in 1999, 2002 and 2009. The sinking of the Cheonan and this week’s attack took place close to the NLL, which Mr Breen sees as evidence that the raids reflect anger over the maritime border in particular.

曾著有金正日传记的迈克尔•布瑞恩(Michael Breen)称，朝鲜关注的或许是黄海领域朝韩两国具有争议的海上分界线——“北方限制线”(Northern Limit Line，NLL)。1999年、2002年和2009年该地区均发生过海军交火。天安舰沉没和炮击也都发生在NLL附近，布瑞恩认为，这证明朝鲜的袭击反映出的主要是对海上分界线的愤怒情绪。

In this analysis, sending an aircraft carrier for joint manoeuvres could be a dangerous move. North Korea says it attacked the island because it felt threatened by a military exercise.

按照这种分析，美国派航空母舰参加联合演习很可能是一个危险举动。朝鲜宣称，其炮击延坪岛，正是因为韩军的一次军事演习使其感受到威胁。

“If the US are prepared to strike back with even more force, if attacked, then fine; but if they think they can have an impact by flexing their muscles, that could be risky,” Mr Breen says.

“如果美国已经准备好在受到攻击的时候，以更强大的兵力予以反击，那很好；但如果美国人认为仅凭炫耀武力就能产生影响，那就会很危险，”布瑞恩说。

China’s foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, said after meeting Pyongyang’s amb­ass­ador and talking by phone to his US and South Korean counterparts, that Beijing was “deeply worried” by North Korea’s attack. “The top priority now is to keep the situation under control and to ensure such events do not happen again,” the ministry said.

中国外交部长杨洁篪在会见了朝鲜驻华大使，并与美国国务卿及韩国外长通话之后表示，北京方面对朝鲜的炮击行为“深感忧虑”。他说：“当务之急是控制事态，切实防止类似事件再度发生。”

South Korean security officials say it is significant that the attack followed the unveiling of an undisclosed uranium enrichment facility. They say both events were aimed at building political capital for Kim Jong-eun, the third son of Kim Jong-il, as he is prepared for succession.

韩安全官员称，朝鲜在公布了之前一直保密的铀浓缩设施之后发起攻击，意义重大。他们认为，这两件事都是为了给准备即位的金正日三子金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)捞取政治资本。

Many South Korean and US officials reject suggestions that North Korea’s ideology is suicidal. “North Korea is a rational actor,” says one security official. The South Korean government insists Pyongyang makes displays of force to scare Washington and Seoul into resuming negotiations, from which it can win political concessions and aid.

许多韩国和美国官员都反驳了朝鲜意识形态具有自杀倾向的说法。“朝鲜是一个理智的参与者，”一名安全官员表示。韩国政府坚称，平壤炫耀武力是为了恐吓华盛顿与首尔，迫使他们重启谈判，从中赢得政治妥协与援助。

Such a tactic would seem pointless because the US and South Korea have ruled out concessions to the destitute North until it dismantles its nuclear programme.

这种战术看起来毫无意义，因为美国与韩国已经明确表示，除非贫困的朝鲜放弃核项目，否则绝不会让步。

As after the sinking of the Cheonan, some analysts have written that the shelling could have been the work of a maverick or panicked commander. Several arguments counter that theory. Live-firing and naval exercises are common on the NLL, so there were no extra grounds to panic on Tuesday. More tellingly, Mr Kim visited the region shortly before the attack.

与天安舰沉没事件之后的情况一样，一些分析人士撰文称，炮击事件或许是一名持异见的或惊慌失措的指挥官的“杰作”。有很多论点反驳了这种理论。在NLL附近实弹射击与海军演习时有发生，因此朝鲜方面对于周二的事件并没有额外理由感到恐慌。更能说明问题的一点是：炮击发生前不久，金正日曾视察这一地区。

South Korean officials also argue the scale of the bombardment, using 200 shells, meant it must have been planned in Pyongyang.

韩国官员同时指出，朝鲜共发射了200枚炮弹，这个规模表明炮击行动肯定是平壤事先计划好的。