揭密中国股市150年

近期中国人民银行意外升息让全球股市震动不已，另外中国共产党领导人还呼吁加速中国经济发展模式的转型，这一推动经济增长的作法令人想起4月22日的声明，该声明说，政府众多职能中，最重要的是促进商业和帮助产业发展。
不寻常之处在于，这是中国政府1903年4月22日作出的声明。
在中国爆发式增长带来的几乎不可阻挡的兴奋中，重要的是要知道过去中国曾几次参加了同样的角逐，但结果不妙。
中国经济的增长是实打实的，笔者不想对此嗤之以鼻，但股市要想获利需要的不仅是经济增长，它们还需要政府机构及企业管理者的良好监管。
中国资本市场有近150年的历史，绝不像许多美国投资者想像的那样具有不可阻挡的势头。
19世纪60年代上海开始交易股票，第一次“炒股热”出现在1871年，当时船运股票最多上涨70%。1882年又出现另一次泡沫，这次是各省政府发行的矿业股。从1889年到1891年，上海被裹挟在对地产开发企业的热潮中。1910年则迎来了橡胶种植股票的繁荣。
每次官方支持的银行都向市场发放了大量低息信贷，就像银行近来做的那样。每次投资者都热情高涨，但最终繁荣都以不可避免的萧条告终。
1920年美国《国家地理》杂志将中国称为“当今世界最大的未开发市场”。次年出资承办人推出一系列商品股票，仅在上海就有超过140家股票交易所如雨后春笋般出现。到1922年前，许多股票完蛋，新的股票交易所除12家以外全部消失。
耶鲁大学（Yale University）金融学金融陈志武说，即使在第二次世界大战结束之前，中国每年有超过100家企业进行首次公开募股（IPO）。
中国领导人长期以来相信他们可以对资本主义收放自如，但至少直到不久之前的历史证明他们错了。
最远回溯到19世纪70年代，各省省长建立公司，然后聘用商人根据省长的意图经营这些企业，但许多企业最终倒闭。
1949年中国共产党甫一掌权便重新成立了被战争破坏的资本市场。1949年一家股票交易所在天津开业，1950年另一家股票交易所又在北京开业。陈志武教授说，新政府在1952年停止了这一试验。
目前这一矛盾仍在继续。香港投资企业惠理基金管理公司（Value Partners）主席谢清海说，多数美国人可能难以想像美国共和党或民主党任命埃克森美孚公司（Exxon Mobil）的首席执行长，但中国许多企业的首席执行长是由共产党任命的，不一定适合为企业掌舵。谢清海说，中国的经理人现在变得越来越职业化，不过这一转变还有很长的路要走。惠理基金管理公司管理着74亿美元资产，其中多数资产是在中国内地。
资产规模62亿美元的共同基金Oakmark International首席经理人希罗（David Herro）说，在过去20年中，他和他的团队每年访问中国两次。他向中国投资了多少？他说，零投资。中国政府仍在努力挑选赢家和输家，他们在这方面做得实在很糟糕。希罗补充说，如果股价较低，且企业得到更好的监管，他才会投资。
陈志武教授认为，全球金融危机让中国领导人相信，西方资本主义模式不像他们原先想像的那样值得复制。一个世纪前政府对中国企业的干预比目前要少。陈志武教授建议，在这些企业更为股东负责前，只投资在纽约或香港主板上市的股票，陈教授称它们为“精华”。
根据晨星（Morningstar）和TrimTabs Investment Research公布的数据，上月约有5.07亿美元涌入中国相关共同基金和交易所交易基金（ETF）,而2009年流入资金量为45亿美元。追逐中国光辉未来的投资者所需等待的时间和要经历的艰辛或许都超乎他们的想象。

This week, the People's Bank of China jolted stock markets around the world with a surprise interest-rate rise, and the leaders of China's Communist Party called for 'accelerating the transformation of the nation's economic-development pattern.' This drive to manage growth harks back to a declaration on April 22 that 'of the many government functions, the most important is to facilitate commerce and help industries.'
The odd thing is, the Chinese government made that statement on April 22, 1903.
Amid the almost irresistible excitement over China's explosive growth, it is important to understand that the Asian giant has run this exact race before-several times-and the results weren't pretty.
The growth in the Chinese economy is real, and I don't mean to sniff at it. But stocks require more than growth alone to be profitable; they also need good oversight by bureaucrats and corporate managers alike.
The chronicle of capital markets in China stretches back nearly 150 years, and it is nothing like the story of unstoppable progress that many American investors might expect.
Stocks began trading in Shanghai in the 1860s. The first 'share mania' struck in 1871, when shipping stocks rose by as much as 70%. In 1882, there was another bubble, this time in mining stocks launched by provincial governments. From 1889 to 1891, Shanghai was gripped by a mania for real-estate development companies. In 1910 came a boom in rubber plantations.
Each time, officially sponsored banks flooded the market with cheap credit-much as their successors have done recently. Each time, investors were swept up with enthusiasm, and the boom ended up in an inevitable bust.
In 1920, National Geographic called China 'the greatest undeveloped market in the world of today.' The next year promoters floated a wave of commodity offerings; in Shanghai alone, more than 140 stock exchanges sprang up. By 1922, many of the stocks had gone bust and all but 12 of the new markets had disappeared.
Even toward the end of World War II, there were more than 100 initial public stock offerings annually in China, says Zhiwu Chen, a finance professor at Yale University.
Chinese leaders have long believed they could somehow both unleash and keep a tight rein on capitalism. History, at least until recently, has proved them wrong.
As far back as the 1870s, provincial governors set up companies, then hired merchants to run them according to the governors' wishes. Many of these firms flopped.
In 1949, right after it came to power, the Communist Party re-established the capital markets that had been disrupted by war. One stock exchange opened in 1949 in Tianjin, another in 1950 in Beijing. The new government closed down this experiment in 1952, says Prof. Chen.
The tension continues today. 'Most Americans probably couldn't conceive of the Republican or Democratic party appointing the CEO of Exxon Mobil,' says Cheah Cheng Hye, chairman of Value Partners, a Hong Kong investment firm that manages $7.4 billion, much of it in China. 'But many of the CEOs in China are appointed by the Communist Party, and they are not necessarily equipped to be corporate captains.' Managers in China are rapidly becoming more professional, Mr. Cheah says, but that change still has a long way to go.
David Herro, lead manager of Oakmark International, a $6.2 billion mutual fund, says he and his team have visited China twice a year for the past 20 years. How much does he have invested there? 'Zero,' he says. 'The government is still trying to pick winners and losers, and they've done a fairly horrible job at it.' Before he will invest, he adds, 'we want lower prices, and we want better corporate governance.'
Prof. Chen thinks that the global financial crisis led China's leaders to believe that the Western model of capitalism wasn't worth copying as closely as they had thought. 'There was less government interference in Chinese businesses a century ago,' he says, 'than there is today.' Until companies become more accountable to shareholders, Prof. Chen advises investing only in shares listed on major exchanges in New York or Hong Kong, which he calls 'the cream of the crop.'
According to data from Morningstar and TrimTabs Investment Research, some $507 million poured into China-related mutual funds and exchange-traded funds last month, after $4.5 billion of inflows in 2009. Investors chasing China's glorious future may have longer to wait, and a harder time getting there, than they might imagine.