Tuesday, November 30, 2010

鸭绿江大桥缓建凸显中朝分歧难弥

靠近中朝边境展示着一座大桥的微缩模型,其中既寓意着中国对朝鲜这个多事邻邦政策的希望,也代表着其政策的失败。
这是一座双车道吊桥的实体模型。吊桥计划耗资2.5亿美元,可将蓬勃发展的中国与穷困不堪的朝鲜相连。中国计划通过贸易和投资等经济手段处理朝鲜问题,而建设这座吊桥只是这个战略的一小部分。美国及其盟国则更偏向在经济上对朝鲜实行制裁并在政治上与其对抗。
随着朝鲜半岛再次陷入危机,中国这一战略似乎愈发难以实现了。

本来中国应于今年初开始修建“新鸭绿江大桥”。鸭绿江流经中国城市丹东时成为中朝两国的边界河,丹东是两国1,300公里长的国界上一个主要贸易口岸。如今在展览中心代表这座大桥的全部展示就是这个由塑料和金属搭建起来的模型了。大桥建设目前处于搁置状态。
尽管中国邀请朝鲜领导人金正日(Kim Jong-II)视察中国南方的繁华都市、高速铁路和先进的港口及工厂,多次试图劝说金正日进行市场改革,但朝鲜仍然对于是否实行这种改革倍感怀疑。市场改革曾将中国濒于崩溃的社会主义经济挽救于旦夕。
朝鲜2006年第一次进行核试验,中国为此表示公开抗议并支持联合国(United Nations)对朝鲜进行制裁。后来中国与朝鲜的关系取得了更好的发展,不过其双边关系取决于朝鲜削减核武器计划的行动进程。
但当朝鲜2009年进行第二次核试验后,中国改变了对朝鲜的策略。中国承诺将增加对朝鲜的援助、投资和贸易,只要平壤方面开放经济并重新进行多边对话。这次修建新大桥的计划就是在中国国务院总理温家宝去年10月访问朝鲜后推出的。
中国人民大学国际关系领域专家金灿荣说,中国以前对朝鲜的政策失败了,如今新的政策也失败了,是否还会出台新政策我不清楚,这对于中国来说确实很尴尬。
如今鸭绿江上联系中朝两国的唯一通道就剩中朝友谊大桥了,这是1943年日本人修建的,桥面十分狭窄,一次只允许一个方向的车通过。鸭绿江是为数不多的朝鲜与外界相连的通道之一。
在1950年至1953年朝鲜与美国的战争中,中国调遣了300万“志愿军”去抗美援朝,其中中国绝大多数的物资供给都是经过友谊大桥送到朝鲜的。目前,中朝两国年度贸易额共约20亿美元,其中有70%都是通过友谊大桥输送的。
金正日乘坐其私属专列火车访问中国时,也是通过这座友谊大桥进入中国的。
友谊大桥附近还有一座大桥遗址,这是日本人1911年修建的,1950年被美国的炸弹炸毁。桥的一端是彭德怀元帅纪念碑,彭德怀是抗美援朝中方志愿军的将领。纪念碑的基座上刻着“为了和平”的碑文。
中国的和平计划是创建一条新的公路和铁路连接,让朝鲜更好地接触广阔的中国市场,允许中国公司使用朝鲜海岸的一个港口,最终连通横贯西伯利亚的铁路。
中国希望看到朝鲜蓬勃发展,因为中国在其中有战略利益。中国把朝鲜看做一个缓冲国,害怕朝鲜政权的瓦解会引发难民涌向丹东这样的城市,将驻扎在韩国的3万人美国军队带到鸭绿江岸边。
丹东正在迅速发展,大力新建住房、购物中心、工业园区和酒店,而朝鲜履行其在鸭绿江岸岛屿建两个经济区的承诺仍毫无启动迹象。朝鲜最知名的设施是一座闲置多年的摩天轮。
这座新桥原本计划于8月开工。3月份,丹东市市长赵连生说将会于10月开工,并在三年内完工。
丹东市交通部门一位官员说,这座新桥还在等待中央政府的批准,据我所知,这个项目还没确定。
上周朝鲜炮袭韩国后,许多当地商人害怕这项工程会与其他各种试图开放朝鲜经济的努力一样,面临同样的命运。
1991年,朝鲜在与中国和俄罗斯交界处成立了罗津-先锋自由贸易区(Rajin-Sonbong Free-Trade Zone)。朝鲜计划吸引70亿美元的投资,结果却只吸引了很小一部分,主要是因为其基础设施太差以及三国之间协调不力。
接着是新义州自由贸易区(Sinuiju Free Trade Zone),这是2001年金正日访问上海后下令成立的,位于丹东对面。这一计划在第二年化为泡影,被金正日任命为该区行政长官的荷兰籍华裔花卉商人杨斌在中国因贪污腐败被捕,判处18年徒刑。
今年1月,金正日罕见地访问了罗津-先锋自由贸易区后,朝鲜将该区提升为“特别城市”,为其取新名“罗先”(Rason),试图重启该自由贸易区。然而在过去,这样的项目一直因政治危机而搁置,上周炮袭事件后韩国方面的任何投资都可能会被冻结。
许多专家说,最基本的问题在于,金正日羡慕中国的工业实力,但他将中国的经济模式视为对他权力的威胁。
首尔三星经济研究院(Samsung Economic Research Institute)研究员Lim Soo-ho说,金正日知道,要发展经济,除了对外开放别无选择;但这可能会造成朝鲜政权的剧烈动荡;政治稳定第一,发展经济第二,这是金正日不可动摇的政策方针。

A miniature model of a bridge on display near China's border with North Korea embodies the hopes -- and the failings -- of Beijing's policy toward its troublesome neighbor.
It is an architect's mock-up of a planned $250 million two-lane suspension bridge to connect China's booming economy with its impoverished neighbor, part of a wider strategy to deal with North Korea through trade and investment rather than the sanctions and political confrontation favored by the U.S. and its allies.
With the Korean peninsula again engulfed in crisis, that strategy is looking increasingly forlorn.
All there is to show for the 'New Yalu River Bridge,' which China was supposed to start building earlier this year across a waterway that separates the two countries in Dandong, the main trading post on their 1,300-kilometer border, is the plastic and metal model in an exhibition center. Construction is on hold.
Pyongyang remains deeply skeptical about implementing the kind of market overhauls that transformed China's once-moribund socialist economy, despite China's repeated efforts to convince North Korean leader Kim Jong-il by inviting him to inspect its southern boom towns, high-speed railways and state-of-the art ports and factories.
After North Korea tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006, China protested publicly, backed United Nations sanctions and made better relations with Pyongyang dependent on its taking steps to dismantle its nuclear-arms program.
But after North Korea's second test in 2009, China shifted tack, promising to increase aid, investment and trade if Pyongyang opened up its economy and returned to multilateral talks. The plan for the new bridge was unveiled when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited North Korea in October last year.
'China's previous policy failed, and now the current one has failed,' said Jin Canrong, an international-relations expert at Beijing's Renmin University. 'Whether there will be another one, I just don't know. This is very awkward for China.'
For now, the only way over the Yalu -- and one of North Korea's few links to the outside world -- is the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge, which was built by the Japanese in 1943, and is so narrow that traffic can move only in one direction at a time.
During the 1950-53 Korean War, when China sent three million 'volunteers' to fight alongside North Korean forces, China ferried most of its supplies over this bridge. Today, it carries 70% of the roughly $2 billion annual trade between the two countries.
Mr. Kim crosses this way when he travels to China in his private train.
Next to the Friendship Bridge stand the remains of another one -- also built by the Japanese, in 1911 -- which was destroyed by American bombs in 1950. At one end is a monument depicting Peng Dehuai, the Chinese general who led the volunteers. 'For peace' reads an inscription on its base.
China's plan for peace is to create a new road and rail link to improve North Korean access to the vast Chinese market, allow Chinese companies to use a port on the North Korean coast, and eventually link up with the Trans-Siberian railway.
China has a strategic interest in seeing a thriving North Korea on its eastern border. It sees North Korea as a buffer state, and fears a collapse of the regime there would trigger a flood of refugees into towns like Dandong, and bring the 30,000 U.S. troops in South Korea right up to the banks of the Yalu.
While Dandong is bursting with new housing developments, shopping malls, industrial parks and hotels, there are no signs of North Korea fulfilling its promise to set up two economic zones on islands on its side of the Yalu. The most prominent structure in the North is a ferris wheel that has been been idle for years.
Construction of the new bridge was originally slated to start in August. Zhao Liansheng, Dandong's mayor, said in March that building would start in October, and be finished within three years.
'The new bridge is still waiting for the approval of central government,' said an official from the Dandong Transportation Department. 'As far as I know, this project is not definite yet.'
Following North Korea's artillery raid on the South last week, many local businessmen fear the project could share the fate of other sporadic attempts to open North Korea's economy.
In 1991, North Korea established the Rajin-Sonbong Free-Trade Zone on its borders with China and Russia. That attracted only a tiny fraction of the $7 billion investment Pyongyang envisioned, due mainly to poor infrastructure and coordination between the three countries.
Next came the Sinuiju Free Trade Zone, opposite Dandong, whose establishment Mr. Kim ordered after visiting Shanghai in 2001. That plan collapsed the following year when Yang Bin, a Chinese-Dutch flower tycoon appointed by Mr Kim to head the zone, was arrested for corruption in China and jailed for 18 years.
In January this year, North Korea tried to revive Rajin-Sonbong by upgrading it to a 'special city' with a new name, Rason, after a rare visit by Mr. Kim. In the past, however, such projects have been stalled by political crises, and any South Korean investment is likely to be frozen following last week's attack.
The fundamental problem, many experts say, is that Mr. Kim admires China's industrial might but sees its economic model as a threat to his grip on power.
'Kim knows that to develop the economy, there is no alternative but to opening up,' said Lim Soo-ho, a research fellow at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul. 'But that may cause significant instability on North Korea's regime. Political stability first, economy second. That's Kim's unchangeable policy guideline.'

 

中朝友谊大桥(左),鸭绿江断桥(右)

中朝友谊大桥(左),鸭绿江断桥(右)

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