突尼斯变天的启示 Tunisia’s surprise

In retrospect, the ongoing revolt in Tunisia seems almost inevitable. There were so many reasons for anti-government street action: high youth unemployment (31 per cent), a corrupt ruling family (the president’s wife was widely known as “shopper-in-chief”), and extreme political repression (the World Bank says only Syria is harsher in the region). But hindsight is different from foresight.

事后来看，突尼斯正在上演的起义似乎是不可避免的。突尼斯人有太多理由走上街头反对政府：高企的年轻人失业率（达31%），腐败的执政家族（总统夫人“购物总司令”之名可谓远近皆知），以及极端的政治压制（世界银行(World Bank)称，在该地区，只有叙利亚的政治压制力度比突尼斯大）。但是，后见之明毕竟不同于先见之明。

Equity investors did not expect anything untoward. The Tunis stock market index rose 19 per cent in 2010, its eighth straight positive year. Last April, S&P hailed the “gradual pace” of political liberalisation. A triple-B (investment grade) rating reflected a system that “has yielded political and social stability”. In September, the World Bank wrote of “remarkable progress on equitable growth, fighting poverty and achieving good social indicators”.

股市投资者并未预料到突尼斯会突然变天。2010年，突尼斯股市指数上涨19%，这是该股指连续第八年上扬。去年4月，标准普尔(S&P)对突尼斯政治自由化的“渐进步伐”大加赞扬，称突尼斯获得的BBB（投资级）评级反映出，该国体制“已经带来了政治和社会稳定”。去年9月，世界银行撰文称：“（突尼斯）在均衡增长、消除贫穷和实现良好社会指标方面取得显著进展”。

The general failure to predict the Tunisian political tsunami could spring from inattention. The country is very small, lacking commodity wealth, and with a gross domestic product of only $40bn (about the same as Brussels). More likely, though, the experts missed the imminent collapse in Tunis for the same reason that similar upheavals, such as in Tehran and Moscow, came as a surprise: radical political change is unpredictable. Unpopular governments can stay in power for years despite good reasons to fall. They can also change and become more popular – or suddenly fail.

大家之所以未能预料到突尼斯的政治海啸，可能是因为对该国不太关注。突尼斯是个很小的国家，物产贫乏，国内生产总值(GDP)只有400亿美元（约和布鲁塞尔相当）。但更有可能的情况是，专家们未能预料到突尼斯近在眼前的崩溃，与他们未预料到德黑兰和莫斯科的类似剧变，是出于同样的原因：根本性的政治变革是不可预测的。丧失民心的政府可能在许多年内依然呆在台上，尽管按理来说它们早该垮台。它们也可能进行改革，赢得更多民心——或者突然之间被推翻。

Investors have responded to Tunisia’s sudden change of course by widening credit spreads throughout the region. Their concern is more plausible than the optimism of experts predicting a Middle Eastern democratic flowering. There is another lesson, applicable to rich and developing countries: governments can live for years with weaknesses that can suddenly become fatal flaws. Buyers of the sovereign debt of fiscally irresponsible countries might ponder that one.

当然，投资者已对突尼斯局势突变作出反应，整个地区的信贷息差都已扩大。与专家们预言民主之花正在中东盛开的乐观情绪相比，投资者表现出的担心似乎更有道理。还有一条教训，既适用于富国，也适用于发展中国家：问题重重的政府可能会苟延残喘许多年，但那些问题可能突然之间就变成致命的缺陷。那些向财政上不负责任的国家购买主权债务的人，或许应该仔细掂量掂量这句话。